Two decades of the North Pacific CPR program

The North Pacific Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey is essentially as old as PICES itself. At the very first PICES meeting, held in 1992, a proposal was made by Dr. Tim Parsons to the BIO Committee for a trans-Pacific CPR survey, to be initiated as soon as possible (PICES, 1992). Discussions between PICES scientists and the North Atlantic CPR survey team, run by (then) the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science (SAHFOS) in the UK, led to a trial tow from Long Beach, California to Alaska in the summer of 1997, behind an oil tanker. The samples were processed, and in 1998 Sonia Batten attended the MONITOR Task Team meeting to present results of this demonstration tow. An Advisory Panel (AP-CPR) was convened under MONITOR to implement a regular CPR survey that would contribute to the PICES 4Cs (Climate Change and Carrying Capacity) progra

State of the California current 2013-14: El niño looming

In 2013, the California current was dominated by strong coastal upwelling and high productivity. Indices of total cumulative upwelling for particular coastal locations reached some of the highest values on record. Chlorophyll a levels were high throughout spring and summer. Catches of upwelling-related fish species were also high. After a moderate drop in upwelling during fall 2013, the California current system underwent a major change in phase. Three major basin-scale indicators, the PDO, the NPGO, and the ENSO-MEI, all changed phase at some point during the winter of 2013/14. The PDO changed to positive values, indicative of warmer waters in the North Pacific; the NPGO to negative values, indicative of lower productivity along the coast; and the MEI to positive values, indicative of an oncoming El Niño. Whereas the majority of the California Current system appears to have transitioned to an El Niño state by August 2014, based on decreases in upwelling and chlorophyll a concentration, and increases in SST, there still remained pockets of moderate upwelling, cold water, and high chlorophyll a biomass at various central coast locations, unlike patterns seen during the more major El Niños (e.g., the 97-98 event). Catches of rockfish, market squid, euphausiids, and juvenile sanddab remained high along the central coast, whereas catches of sardine and anchovy were low throughout the CCS. 2014 appears to be heading towards a moderate El Niño state, with some remaining patchy regions of upwellingdriven productivity along the coast. Superimposed on this pattern, three major regions have experienced possibly non-El Niño-related warming since winter: the Bering Sea, the Gulf of Alaska, and offshore of southern California. It is unclear how this warming may interact with the predicted El Niño, but the result will likely be reduced growth or reproduction for many key fisheries species

Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science

Aim: To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. Location: Global. Methods: We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series. Results: Confidence scores for inferred climate impacts varied widely from 1 to 16 (very low to high confidence). Approximately 35% of analyses were not associated with clearly stated prior expectations and 65% of analyses did not test putative non-climate drivers of biological change. Among the highest-scoring studies, 91% tested prior expectations, 86% formulated expectations for alternative drivers but only 63% statistically tested them. Higher confidence scores observed in studies that did not detect a change or tracked multiple species suggest publication bias favouring impact studies that are consistent with climate change. The number of time series showing climate impacts was a poor predictor of average confidence scores for a given group, reinforcing that vote-counting methodology is not appropriate for determining overall confidence in inferences. Main conclusions: Climate impacts research is expected to attribute biological change to climate change with measurable confidence. Studies with long-term, high-resolution data, appropriate statistics and tests of alternative drivers earn higher Cindex scores, suggesting these should be given greater weight in impact assessments. Together with our proposed framework, the results of our Cindex analysis indicate how the science of detecting and attributing biological impacts to climate change can be strengthened through the use of evidence-based prior expectations and thorough statistical analyses, even when data are limited, maximizing the impact of the diverse and growing climate change ecology literature

State of the California current 2012-13: No such thing as an “average” year

This report reviews the state of the California Current System (CCS) between winter 2012 and spring 2013, and includes observations from Washington State to Baja California. During 2012, large-scale climate modes indicated the CCS remained in a cool, productive phase present since 2007. The upwelling season was delayed north of 42°N, but regions to the south, especially 33° to 36°N, experienced average to above average upwelling that persisted throughout the summer. Contrary to the indication of high production suggested by the climate indices, chlorophyll observed from surveys and remote sensing was below average along much of the coast. As well, some members of the forage assemblages along the coast experienced low abundances in 2012 surveys. Specifically, the concentrations of all lifestages observed directly or from egg densities of Pacific sardine, Sardinops sagax, and northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax, were less than previous years’ survey estimates. However, 2013 surveys and observations indicate an increase in abundance of northern anchovy. During winter 2011/2012, the increased presence of northern copepod species off northern California was consistent with stronger southward transport. Krill and small-fraction zooplankton abundances, where examined, were generally above average. North of 42°N, salps returned to typical abundances in 2012 after greater observed concentrations in 2010 and 2011. In contrast, salp abundance off central and southern California increased after a period of southward transport during winter 2011/2012. Reproductive success of piscivorous Brandt’s cormorant, Phalacrocorax penicillatus, was reduced while planktivorous Cassin’s auklet, Ptychoramphus aleuticus was elevated. Differences between the productivity of these two seabirds may be related to the available forage assemblage observed in the surveys. California sea lion pups from San Miguel Island were undernourished resulting in a pup mortality event perhaps in response to changes in forage availability. Limited biological data were available for spring 2013, but strong winter upwelling coastwide indicated an early spring transition, with the strong upwelling persisting into early summer

The Making of a Productivity Hotspot in the Coastal Ocean

Highly productive hotspots in the ocean often occur where complex physical forcing mechanisms lead to aggregation of primary and secondary producers. Understanding how hotspots persist, however, requires combining knowledge of the spatio-temporal linkages between geomorphology, physical forcing, and biological responses with the physiological requirements and movement of top predators.) off the Baja California peninsula, Mexico.We have identified the set of conditions that lead to a persistent top predator hotspot, which increases our understanding of how highly migratory species exploit productive regions of the ocean. These results will aid in the development of spatially and environmentally explicit management strategies for marine species of conservation concern

Maternal Risk of Breeding Failure Remained Low throughout the Demographic Transitions in Fertility and Age at First Reproduction in Finland

Radical declines in fertility and postponement of first reproduction during the recent human demographic transitions have posed a challenge to interpreting human behaviour in evolutionary terms. This challenge has stemmed from insufficient evolutionary insight into individual reproductive decision-making and the rarity of datasets recording individual long-term reproductive success throughout the transitions. We use such data from about 2,000 Finnish mothers (first births: 1880s to 1970s) to show that changes in the maternal risk of breeding failure (no offspring raised to adulthood) underlay shifts in both fertility and first reproduction. With steady improvements in offspring survival, the expected fertility required to satisfy a low risk of breeding failure became lower and observed maternal fertility subsequently declined through an earlier age at last reproduction. Postponement of the age at first reproduction began when this risk approximated zero–even for mothers starting reproduction late. Interestingly, despite vastly differing fertility rates at different stages of the transitions, the number of offspring successfully raised to breeding per mother remained relatively constant over the period. Our results stress the importance of assessing the long-term success of reproductive strategies by including measures of offspring quality and suggest that avoidance of breeding failure may explain several key features of recent life-history shifts in industrialized societies

Maternal Antibody Transmission in Relation to Mother Fluctuating Asymmetry in a Long-Lived Colonial Seabird: The Yellow-Legged Gull Larus michahellis

Female birds transfer antibodies to their offspring via the egg yolk, thus possibly providing passive immunity against infectious diseases to which hatchlings may be exposed, thereby affecting their fitness. It is nonetheless unclear whether the amount of maternal antibodies transmitted into egg yolks varies with female quality and egg laying order. In this paper, we investigated the transfer of maternal antibodies against type A influenza viruses (anti-AIV antibodies) by a long-lived colonial seabird, the yellow-legged gull (Larus michahellis), in relation to fluctuating asymmetry in females, i.e. the random deviation from perfect symmetry in bilaterally symmetric morphological and anatomical traits. In particular, we tested whether females with greater asymmetry transmitted fewer antibodies to their eggs, and whether within-clutch variation in yolk antibodies varied according to the maternal level of fluctuating asymmetry. We found that asymmetric females were in worse physical condition, produced fewer antibodies, and transmitted lower amounts of antibodies to their eggs. We also found that, within a given clutch, yolk antibody level decreased with egg laying order, but this laying order effect was more pronounced in clutches laid by the more asymmetric females. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that maternal quality interacts with egg laying order in determining the amount of maternal antibodies transmitted to the yolks. They also highlight the usefulness of fluctuating asymmetry as a sensitive indicator of female quality and immunocompetence in birds

Securing ocean benefits for society in the face of climate change

Benefits humans rely on from the ocean - marine ecosystem services - are increasingly vulnerable under future climate. This paper reviews how three valued services have, and will continue to, shift under climate change: (1) capture fisheries, (2) food from aquaculture, and (3) protection from coastal hazards such as storms and sea-level rise. Climate adaptation planning is just beginning for fisheries, aquaculture production, and risk mitigation for coastal erosion and inundation. A few examples are highlighted, showing the promise of considering multiple ecosystem services in developing approaches to adapt to sea-level rise, ocean acidification, and rising sea temperatures. Ecosystem-based adaptation in fisheries and along coastlines and changes in aquaculture practices can improve resilience of species and habitats to future environmental challenges. Opportunities to use market incentives - such as compensation for services or nutrient trading schemes - are relatively untested in marine systems. Relocation of communities in response to rising sea levels illustrates the urgent need to manage human activities and investments in ecosystems to provide a sustainable flow of benefits in the face of future climate change. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Considerations for management strategy evaluation for small pelagic fishes

Management strategy evaluation (MSE) is the state-of-the-art approach for testing and comparing management strategies in a way that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty (e.g. monitoring, estimation, and implementation). Management strategy evaluation can help identify management strategies that are robust to uncertainty about the life history of the target species and its relationship to other species in the food web. Small pelagic fish (e.g. anchovy, herring and sardine) fulfil an important ecological role in marine food webs and present challenges to the use of MSE and other simulation-based evaluation approaches. This is due to considerable stochastic variation in their ecology and life history, which leads to substantial observation and process uncertainty. Here, we summarize the current state of MSE for small pelagic fishes worldwide. We leverage expert input from ecologists and modellers to draw attention to sources of process and observation uncertainty for small pelagic species, providing examples from geographical regions where these species are ecologically, economically and culturally important. Temporal variation in recruitment and other life-history rates, spatial structure and movement, and species interactions are key considerations for small pelagic fishes. We discuss tools for building these into the MSE process, with examples from existing fisheries. We argue that model complexity should be informed by management priorities and whether ecosystem information will be used to generate dynamics or to inform reference points. We recommend that our list of considerations be used in the initial phases of the MSE process for small pelagic fishes or to build complexity on existing single-species models.publishedVersio