Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

Former Soviet Union Region To Play Larger Role in Meeting World Wheat Needs

By 2019, Russia could become the world’s top wheat exporter, and Russian, Ukrainian, and Kazakhstan wheat exports collectively could more than double those of the United States. Growth in the former Soviet Union’s grain production and exports may increase world food availability and, in the near term, help mitigate global food security concerns. U.S. wheat production is leveling off, as U.S. producers shift acreage to benefit from competitive advantages in corn and soybeans

The Allocative Efficiency of Material Input Use in Russian Agriculture

This paper examines the allocative efficiency of use of material inputs, and fertiliser in particular, in Russian agriculture during the transition from a planned to a market economy. The results indicate that inputs in the aggregate are overused (their purchase price exceeding the value of their marginal product), though fertiliser is underused. The findings support the argument that the substantial drop in agricultural input use during transition has been economically rational. Comparative Economic Studies (2005) 47, 214–223. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100086

Price and Exchange Rate Transmission in Russian Meat Markets

This paper examines transmission between changes in (a) world trade prices for meat and Russian exchange rates and (b) Russian consumer meat prices. We find that for both trade prices and the exchange rate, the transmission is low. This indicates that Russia's integration into world meat markets is poor. The economic cost to Russia of poor transmission is that at any point in time, the country is not at its optimal volumes and mix of agricultural trade that would maximise the gains from trade. The transmission estimates are therefore important for forecasting Russian agricultural production and trade. Comparative Economic Studies (2004) 46, 221–244. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100048

Mapping the extent of abandoned farmland in Central and Eastern Europe using MODIS time series satellite data

The demand for agricultural products continues to grow rapidly, but further agricultural expansion entails substantial environmental costs, making recultivating currently unused farmland an interesting alternative. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to widespread abandonment of agricultural lands, but the extent and spatial patterns of abandonment are unclear. We quantified the extent of abandoned farmland, both croplands and pastures, across the region using MODIS NDVI satellite image time series from 2004 to 2006 and support vector machine classifications. Abandoned farmland was widespread, totaling 52.5 Mha, particularly in temperate European Russia (32 Mha), northern and western Ukraine, and Belarus. Differences in abandonment rates among countries were striking, suggesting that institutional and socio-economic factors were more important in determining the amount of abandonment than biophysical conditions. Indeed, much abandoned farmland occurred in areas without major constraints for agriculture. Our map provides a basis for assessing the potential of Central and Eastern Europe's abandoned agricultural lands to contribute to food or bioenergy production, or carbon storage, as well as the environmental trade-offs and social constraints of recultivation. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd