Natural capital informing decisions: from promise to practice

This is the accepted manuscript of a paper that will be published in PNAS. It is currently under an infinite embargo.The central challenge of the 21st century is to develop economic, social, and governance systems capable of ending poverty and achieving sustainable levels of population and consumption while securing the life-support systems underpinning current and future human well-being. Essential to meeting this challenge is the incorporation of natural capital and the ecosystem services it provides into decision-making. Here, we explore progress and crucial gaps at this frontier, reflecting upon the 10 years since the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. We focus on three key dimensions of progress and ongoing challenges: raising awareness of the interdependence of ecosystems and human well-being; advancing the fundamental, interdisciplinary science of ecosystem services; and implementing this science in decisions to restore natural capital and use it sustainably. Awareness of human dependence on nature is at an all-time high, the science of ecosystem services is rapidly advancing, and talk of natural capital is now common from governments to corporate boardrooms. However, successful implementation is still in early stages. We explore why ecosystem service information has yet to fundamentally change decision-making and suggest a path forward that emphasizes: 1) developing solid evidence linking decisions to impacts on natural capital and ecosystem services, and then to human well-being, 2) working closely with leaders in government, business, and civil society to develop the knowledge, tools, and practices necessary to integrate natural capital and ecosystem services into everyday decision-making; and 3) reforming institutions to change policy and practices to better align private short-term goals with societal long-term goals.http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.150375111

Survival of Migrating Salmon Smolts in Large Rivers With and Without Dams

The mortality of salmon smolts during their migration out of freshwater and into the ocean has been difficult to measure. In the Columbia River, which has an extensive network of hydroelectric dams, the decline in abundance of adult salmon returning from the ocean since the late 1970s has been ascribed in large measure to the presence of the dams, although the completion of the hydropower system occurred at the same time as large-scale shifts in ocean climate, as measured by climate indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We measured the survival of salmon smolts during their migration to sea using elements of the large-scale acoustic telemetry system, the Pacific Ocean Shelf Tracking (POST) array. Survival measurements using acoustic tags were comparable to those obtained independently using the Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag system, which is operational at Columbia and Snake River dams. Because the technology underlying the POST array works in both freshwater and the ocean, it is therefore possible to extend the measurement of survival to large rivers lacking dams, such as the Fraser, and to also extend the measurement of survival to the lower Columbia River and estuary, where there are no dams. Of particular note, survival during the downstream migration of at least some endangered Columbia and Snake River Chinook and steelhead stocks appears to be as high or higher than that of the same species migrating out of the Fraser River in Canada, which lacks dams. Equally surprising, smolt survival during migration through the hydrosystem, when scaled by either the time or distance migrated, is higher than in the lower Columbia River and estuary where dams are absent. Our results raise important questions regarding the factors that are preventing the recovery of salmon stocks in the Columbia and the future health of stocks in the Fraser River

Securing ocean benefits for society in the face of climate change

Benefits humans rely on from the ocean - marine ecosystem services - are increasingly vulnerable under future climate. This paper reviews how three valued services have, and will continue to, shift under climate change: (1) capture fisheries, (2) food from aquaculture, and (3) protection from coastal hazards such as storms and sea-level rise. Climate adaptation planning is just beginning for fisheries, aquaculture production, and risk mitigation for coastal erosion and inundation. A few examples are highlighted, showing the promise of considering multiple ecosystem services in developing approaches to adapt to sea-level rise, ocean acidification, and rising sea temperatures. Ecosystem-based adaptation in fisheries and along coastlines and changes in aquaculture practices can improve resilience of species and habitats to future environmental challenges. Opportunities to use market incentives - such as compensation for services or nutrient trading schemes - are relatively untested in marine systems. Relocation of communities in response to rising sea levels illustrates the urgent need to manage human activities and investments in ecosystems to provide a sustainable flow of benefits in the face of future climate change. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Catching the Right Wave: Evaluating Wave Energy Resources and Potential Compatibility with Existing Marine and Coastal Uses

Many hope that ocean waves will be a source for clean, safe, reliable and affordable energy, yet wave energy conversion facilities may affect marine ecosystems through a variety of mechanisms, including competition with other human uses. We developed a decision-support tool to assist siting wave energy facilities, which allows the user to balance the need for profitability of the facilities with the need to minimize conflicts with other ocean uses. Our wave energy model quantifies harvestable wave energy and evaluates the net present value (NPV) of a wave energy facility based on a capital investment analysis. The model has a flexible framework and can be easily applied to wave energy projects at local, regional, and global scales. We applied the model and compatibility analysis on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada to provide information for ongoing marine spatial planning, including potential wave energy projects. In particular, we conducted a spatial overlap analysis with a variety of existing uses and ecological characteristics, and a quantitative compatibility analysis with commercial fisheries data. We found that wave power and harvestable wave energy gradually increase offshore as wave conditions intensify. However, areas with high economic potential for wave energy facilities were closer to cable landing points because of the cost of bringing energy ashore and thus in nearshore areas that support a number of different human uses. We show that the maximum combined economic benefit from wave energy and other uses is likely to be realized if wave energy facilities are sited in areas that maximize wave energy NPV and minimize conflict with existing ocean uses. Our tools will help decision-makers explore alternative locations for wave energy facilities by mapping expected wave energy NPV and helping to identify sites that provide maximal returns yet avoid spatial competition with existing ocean uses

Priorities for synthesis research in ecology and environmental science

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank the National Science Foundation grant #1940692 for financial support for this workshop, and the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) and its staff for logistical support.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Priorities for synthesis research in ecology and environmental science

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank the National Science Foundation grant #1940692 for financial support for this workshop, and the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) and its staff for logistical support.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Eight Decades of Hatchery Salmon Releases in the California Central Valley: Factors Influencing Straying and Resilience

The California Central Valley contains the southernmost native populations of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, which inhabit a highly variable, anthropogenically altered environment. To mitigate habitat loss and support fisheries, millions of fall‐run hatchery salmon are released each year, often transported downstream to avoid in‐river mortality, with consequences not fully understood. We synthesize historical trends in release location and timing (1941–2017), focusing on outcomes influencing stock resilience, adult straying, and ocean arrival timing. Over time, juveniles have been transported increasing distances from the source hatchery, particularly during droughts. Transport distance was strongly associated with straying rate (averaging 0–9% vs. 7–89% for salmon released on site vs. in the bay upstream of Golden Gate Bridge, respectively), increasing the effects of hatchery releases on natural spawners. Decreasing variation in release location and timing could reduce spatiotemporal buffering, narrowing ocean arrival timings and increasing risk of mismatch with peak prey production. Central Valley salmon epitomize the pervasive challenge of balancing short‐term (e.g., abundance) against long‐term (e.g., stability) goals

Four Regional Marine Biodiversity Studies: Approaches and Contributions to Ecosystem-Based Management

We compare objectives and approaches of four regional studies of marine biodiversity: Gulf of Maine Area Census of Marine Life, Baltic Sea History of Marine Animal Populations, Great Barrier Reef Seabed Biodiversity Project, and Gulf of Mexico Biodiversity Project. Each program was designed as an "ecosystem" scale but was created independently and executed differently. Each lasted 8 to 10 years, including several years to refine program objectives, raise funding, and develop research networks. All resulted in improved baseline data and in new, or revised, data systems. Each contributed to the creation or evolution of interdisciplinary teams, and to regional, national, or international science-management linkages. To date, there have been differing extents of delivery and use of scientific information to and by management, with greatest integration by the program designed around specific management questions. We evaluate each research program's relative emphasis on three principal elements of biodiversity organization: composition, structure, and function. This approach is used to analyze existing ecosystem-wide biodiversity knowledge and to assess what is known and where gaps exist. In all four of these systems and studies, there is a relative paucity of investigation on functional elements of biodiversity, when compared with compositional and structural elements. This is symptomatic of the current state of the science. Substantial investment in understanding one or more biodiversity element(s) will allow issues to be addressed in a timely and more integrative fashion. Evaluating research needs and possible approaches across specific elements of biodiversity organization can facilitate planning of future studies and lead to more effective communication between scientists, managers, and stakeholders. Building a general approach that captures how various studies have focused on different biodiversity elements can also contribute to meta-analyses of worldwide experience in scientific research to support ecosystem-based management