Infrared Radiative Forcing and Atmospheric Lifetimes of Trace Species Based on Observations from UARS

Observations from instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) have been used to constrain calculations of infrared radiative forcing by CH4, CCl2F2 and N2O, and to determine lifetimes Of CCl2F2 and N2O- Radiative forcing is calculated as a change in net infrared flux at the tropopause that results from an increase in trace gas amount from pre-industrial (1750) to contemporary (1992) times. Latitudinal and seasonal variations are considered explicitly, using distributions of trace gases and temperature in the stratosphere from UARS measurements and seasonally averaged cloud statistics from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. Top-of-atmosphere fluxes calculated for the contemporary period are in good agreement with satellite measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Globally averaged values of the radiative forcing are 0.536, 0.125, and 0.108 W m-2 for CH4, CCl2F2, and N2O, respectively. The largest forcing occurs near subtropical latitudes during summer, predominantly as a result of the combination of cloud-free skies and a high, cold tropopause. Clouds are found to play a significant role in regulating infrared forcing, reducing the magnitude of the forcing by 30-40% compared to the case of clear skies. The vertical profile of CCl2F2 is important in determining its radiative forcing; use of a height-independent mixing ratio in the stratosphere leads to an over prediction of the forcing by 10%. The impact of stratospheric profiles on radiative forcing by CH4 and N2O is less than 2%. UARS-based distributions of CCl2F2 and N2O are used also to determine global destruction rates and instantaneous lifetimes of these gases. Rates of photolytic destruction in the stratosphere are calculated using solar ultraviolet irradiances measured on UARS and a line-by-line model of absorption in the oxygen Schumann-Runge bands. Lifetimes are 114 +/- 22 and 118 +/- 25 years for CCl2F2 and N2O, respectively

Evaluation of uncertainties in regional climate change simulations

We have run two regional climate models (RCMs) forced by three sets of initial and boundary conditions to form a 2×3 suite of 10-year climate simulations for the continental United States at approximately 50 km horizontal resolution. The three sets of driving boundary conditions are a reanalysis, an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (GCM) current climate, and a future scenario of transient climate change. Common precipitation climatology features simulated by both models included realistic orographic precipitation, east-west transcontinental gradients, and reasonable annual cycles over different geographic locations. However, both models missed heavy cool-season precipitation in the lower Mississippi River basin, a seemingly common model defect. Various simulation biases (differences) produced by the RCMs are evaluated based on the 2×3 experiment set in addition to comparisons with the GCM simulation. The RCM performance bias is smallest, whereas the GCM-RCM downscaling bias (difference between GCM and RCM) is largest. The boundary forcing bias (difference between GCM current climate driven run and reanalysis-driven run) and intermodel bias are both largest in summer, possibly due to different subgrid scale processes in individual models. The ratio of climate change to biases, which we use as one measure of confidence in projected climate changes, is substantially larger than 1 in several seasons and regions while the ratios are always less than 1 in summer. The largest ratios among all regions are in California. Spatial correlation coefficients of precipitation were computed between simulation pairs in the 2×3 set. The climate change correlation is highest and the RCM performance correlation is lowest while boundary forcing and intermodel correlations are intermediate. The high spatial correlation for climate change suggests that even though future precipitation is projected to increase, its overall continental-scale spatial pattern is expected to remain relatively constant. The low RCM performance correlation shows a modeling challenge to reproduce observed spatial precipitation patterns

Effect of neonatal vitamin A supplementation on mortality in infants in Tanzania (Neovita): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background Supplementation of vitamin A in children aged 6–59 months improves child survival and is implemented as global policy. Studies of the effi cacy of supplementation of infants in the neonatal period have inconsistent results. We aimed to assess the effi cacy of oral supplementation with vitamin A given to infants in the fi rst 3 days of life to reduce mortality between supplementation and 180 days (6 months). Methods We did an individually randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of infants born in the Morogoro and Dar es Salaam regions of Tanzania. Women were identifi ed during antenatal clinic visits or in the labour wards of public health facilities in Dar es Salaam. In Kilombero, Ulanga, and Kilosa districts, women were seen at home as part of the health and demographic surveillance system. Newborn infants were eligible for randomisation if they were able to feed orally and if the family intended to stay in the study area for at least 6 months. We randomly assigned infants to receive one dose of 50 000 IU of vitamin A or placebo in the first 3 days after birth. Infants were randomly assigned in blocks of 20, and investigators, participants’ families, and data analysis teams were masked to treatment assignment. We assessed infants on day 1 and day 3 after dosing, as well as at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after birth. The primary endpoint was mortality at 6 months, assessed by field interviews. The primary analysis included only children who were not lost to follow-up. This trial is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR), number ACTRN12610000636055. Findings Between Aug 26, 2010, and March 3, 2013, 31 999 newborn babies were randomly assigned to receive vitamin A (n=15 995) or placebo (n=16 004; 15 428 and 15 464 included in analysis of mortality at 6 months, respectively). We did not find any evidence for a beneficial effect of vitamin A supplementation on mortality in infants at 6 months (26 deaths per 1000 livebirths in vitamin A vs 24 deaths per 1000 livebirths in placebo group; risk ratio 1·10, 95% CI 0·95–1·26; p=0·193). There was no evidence of a diff erential eff ect for vitamin A supplementation on mortality by sex; risk ratio for mortality at 6 months for boys was 1·08 (0·90–1·29) and for girls was 1·12 (0·91–1·39). There was also no evidence of adverse eff ects of supplementation within 3 days of dosing. Interpretation Neonatal vitamin A supplementation did not result in any immediate adverse events, but had no beneficial effect on survival in infants in Tanzania. These results strengthen the evidence against a global policy recommendation for neonatal vitamin A supplementation

Extreme sensitivity in Snowball Earth formation to mountains on PaleoProterozoic supercontinents

During the PaleoProterozoic 2.45 to 2.2 billion years ago, several glaciations may have produced Snowball Earths. These glacial cycles occurred during large environmental change when atmospheric oxygen was increasing, a supercontinent was assembled from numerous landmasses, and collisions between these landmasses formed mountain ranges. Despite uncertainties in the composition of the atmosphere and reconstruction of the landmasses, paleoclimate model simulations can test the sensitivity of the climate to producing a Snowball Earth. Here we present a series of simulations that vary the atmospheric methane concentration and latitudes of west–east-oriented mountain ranges on an idealised supercontinent. For a given methane concentration, the latitudes of mountains control whether a Snowball Earth forms or not. Significantly, mountains in middle latitudes inhibited Snowball Earth formation, and mountains in low latitudes promoted Snowball Earth formation, with the supercontinent with mountains at ±30° being most conducive to forming a Snowball Earth because of reduced albedo at low latitudes. We propose that the extreme sensitivity of a Snowball Earth to reconstructions of the paleogeography and paleoatmospheric composition may explain the observed glaciations, demonstrating the importance of high-quality reconstructions to improved understanding of this early period in Earth’s history

Climate Process Team On Internal Wave-Driven Ocean Mixing

The study summarizes recent advances in our understanding of internal wave–driven turbulent mixing in the ocean interior and introduces new parameterizations for global climate ocean models and their climate impacts

Climate Process Team on Internal-Wave Driven Ocean Mixing

Diapycnal mixing plays a primary role in the thermodynamic balance of the ocean, and consequently, in oceanic heat and carbon uptake and storage. Though observed mixing rates are on average consistent with values required by inverse models, recent attention has focused on the dramatic spatial variability, spanning several orders of magnitude, of mixing rates in both the upper and deep ocean. Climate models have been shown to be very sensitive not only to the overall level but to the detailed distribution of mixing; sub-grid-scale parameterizations based on accurate physical processes will allow model forecasts to evolve with a changing climate. Spatio-temporal patterns of mixing are largely driven by the geography of generation, propagation and destruction of internal waves, which are thought to supply much of the power for turbulent mixing. Over the last five years and under the auspices of US CLIVAR, a NSF and NOAA supported Climate Process Team has been engaged in developing, implementing and testing dynamics-base parameterizations for internal-wave driven turbulent mixing in global ocean models. The work has primarily focused on turbulence 1) near sites of internal tide generation, 2) in the upper ocean related to wind-generated near inertial motions, 3) due to internal lee waves generated by low-frequency mesoscale flows over topography, and 4) at ocean margins. Here we review recent progress, describe the tools developed, and discuss future directions

Changes in susceptibility to life-threatening infections after treatment for complicated severe malnutrition in Kenya

Background Goals of treating childhood Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM), besides anthropometric recovery and preventing short-term mortality, include reducing risks of subsequent serious infections. How quickly and how much the risk of serious illness changes during rehabilitation is unknown, but could inform improving design and scope of interventions. Objective To investigate changes in the risk of life-threatening events (LTEs) in relation to anthropometric recovery from SAM. Design Secondary analysis of a clinical trial including 1,778 HIV-uninfected Kenyan children aged 2-59 months with complicated SAM, enrolled following the inpatient stabilization phase of treatment, and followed for 12 months. The main outcome was LTEs, defined as infections requiring re-hospitalization or causing death. We examined anthropometry measured at months one, three and six after enrolment in relation to LTEs occurring during the 6 months following each of these time points. Results During 12 months, there were 823 LTEs (257 fatal), predominantly severe pneumonia and diarrhea. At months one, three and six, 557(34%), 764(49%) and 842(56%) children had WHZ≥-2 respectively which, compared to WHZ Conclusion Anthropometric response was associated with rapid and substantial reduction risk of LTEs. However, reduction in susceptibility lagged behind anthropometric improvement. Disease events, alongside anthropometric assessment may provide a clearer picture of the effectiveness of interventions. Robust protocols for detecting and treating poor anthropometric recovery, and addressing broader vulnerabilities that complicated SAM indicates may save lives.</p