Assessing the accuracy of passive microwave estimates of snow water equivalent in data-scarce regions for use in water resource applications

Winter snowpack is a significant contributor to water supply in many regions of the world and accurate estimates of the snow water equivalent (SWE) are necessary for water resource planning. Satellite data is an attractive source of snow information in remote regions with limited ground data. The objective of this study is to assess passive microwave SWE in the Upper Helmand Watershed in Afghanistan where snowmelt is a primary source of water. Passive microwave SWE data were compared over 6 winter seasons, 2004-2009, to an independent estimate of SWE using a snow hydrology model. The snow hydrology model was calibrated to high-resolution snow covered area images and observed reservoir levels. The model was initialized with passive microwave SWE data and found to improve results in years when input precipitation was low. The results showed that passive microwave SWE has potential to provide valuable water resource information in this data-scarce region

Comparison of passive microwave and modeled estimates of total watershed SWE in the continental United States

In the U.S., a dedicated system of snow measurement stations and snowpack modeling products is available to estimate the snow water equivalent (SWE) throughout the winter season. In other regions of the world that depend on snowmelt for water resources, snow data can be scarce, and these regions are vulnerable to drought or flood conditions. Even in the U.S., water resource management is hampered by limited snow data in certain regions, as evident by the 2011 Missouri Basin flooding due in large part to the significant Plains snowpack. Satellite data could potentially provide important information in under‐sampled areas. This study compared the daily AMSR‐E and SSM/I SWE products over nine winter seasons to spatially distributed, modeled output SNODAS summed over 2100 watersheds in the conterminous U.S. Results show large areas where the passive microwave retrievals are highly correlated to the SNODAS data, particularly in the northern Great Plains and southern Rocky Mountain regions. However, the passive microwave SWE is significantly lower than SNODAS in heavily forested areas, and regions that typically receive a deep snowpack. The best correlations are associated with basins in which maximum annual SWE is less than 200 mm, and forest fraction is less than 20%. Even in many watersheds with poor correlations between the passive microwave data and SNODAS maximum annual SWE values, the overall pattern of accumulation and ablation did show good agreement and therefore may provide useful hydrologic information on melt timing and season length

Snow Ensemble Uncertainty Project (SEUP): quantification of snow water equivalent uncertainty across North America via ensemble land surface modeling

The Snow Ensemble Uncertainty Project (SEUP) is an effort to establish a baseline characterization of snow water equivalent (SWE) uncertainty across North America with the goal of informing global snow observational needs. An ensemble-based modeling approach, encompassing a suite of current operational models is used to assess the uncertainty in SWE and total snow storage (SWS) estimation over North America during the 2009–2017 period. The highest modeled SWE uncertainty is observed in mountainous regions, likely due to the relatively deep snow, forcing uncertainties, and variability between the different models in resolving the snow processes over complex terrain. This highlights a need for high-resolution observations in mountains to capture the high spatial SWE variability. The greatest SWS is found in Tundra regions where, even though the spatiotemporal variability in modeled SWE is low, there is considerable uncertainty in the SWS estimates due to the large areal extent over which those estimates are spread. This highlights the need for high accuracy in snow estimations across the Tundra. In midlatitude boreal forests, large uncertainties in both SWE and SWS indicate that vegetation–snow impacts are a critical area where focused improvements to modeled snow estimation efforts need to be made. Finally, the SEUP results indicate that SWE uncertainty is driving runoff uncertainty, and measurements may be beneficial in reducing uncertainty in SWE and runoff, during the melt season at high latitudes (e.g., Tundra and Taiga regions) and in the western mountain regions, whereas observations at (or near) peak SWE accumulation are more helpful over the midlatitudes

Snowpack and runoff generation using AMSR-E passive microwave observations in the Upper Helmand Watershed, Afghanistan

Passive microwave estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) were examined to determine their usefulness for evaluating water resources in the remote Upper Helmand Watershed, central Afghanistan. SWE estimates from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) and the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) passive microwave data were analyzed for six winter seasons, 2004–2009. A second, independent estimate of SWE was calculated for these same time periods using a hydrologic model of the watershed with a temperature index snow model driven using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) gridded estimates of precipitation. The results demonstrate that passive microwave SWE values from SSM/I and AMSR-E are comparable. The AMSR-E sensor had improved performance in the early winter and late spring, which suggests that AMSR-E is better at detecting shallow snowpacks than SSM/I. The timing and magnitude of SWE values from the snow model and the passive microwave observations were sometimes similar with a correlation of 0.53 and accuracy between 55 and 62%. However, the modeled SWE was much lower than the AMSR-E SWE during two winter seasons in which TRMM data estimated lower than normal precipitation. Modeled runoff and reservoir storage predictions improved significantly when peak AMSR-E SWE values were used to update the snow model state during these periods. Rapid decreases in passive microwave SWE during precipitation events were also well aligned with flood flows that increased base flows by 170 and 940%. This finding supports previous northern latitude studies which indicate that the passive microwave signal\u27s lack of scattering can be used to detect snow melt. The current study\u27s extension to rain on snow events suggests an opportunity for added value for flood forecasting

Intercomparison of snow water equivalent observations in the Northern Great Plains

In the Northern Great Plains, melting snow is a primary driver of spring flooding, but limited knowledge of the magnitude and spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) hampers flood forecasting. Passive microwave remote sensing has the potential to enhance operational river flow forecasting but is not routinely incorporated in operational flood forecasting. We compare satellite passive microwave estimates from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR‐E) to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office of Water Prediction (OWP) airborne gamma radiation snow survey and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ground snow survey SWE estimates in the Northern Great Plains from 2002 to 2011. AMSR‐E SWE estimates compare favourably with USACE SWE measurements in the low relief, low vegetation study area (mean difference = −3.8 mm, root mean squared difference [RMSD] = 34.7 mm), but less so with OWP airborne gamma SWE estimates (mean difference = −9.5 mm, RMSD = 42.7 mm). An error simulation suggests that up to half of the error in the former comparison is potentially due to subpixel scale SWE variability, limiting the maximum achievable RMSD between ground and satellite SWE to approximately 26–33 mm in the Northern Great Plains. The OWP gamma versus AMSR‐E SWE comparison yields larger error than the point‐scale USACE versus AMSR‐E comparison, despite a larger measurement footprint (5–7 km2 vs. a few square centimetres, respectively), suggesting that there are unshared errors between the USACE and OWP gamma SWE data

Effect of spatial variability of wet snow on modeled and observed microwave emissions

Melting snow provides an essential source of water in many regions of the world and can also contribute to devastating, wide-scale flooding. Global datasets of recorded passive microwave emissions provide non-destructive, daily information on snow processes including the presence of liquid water in the snow, which can be an indicator of snowmelt. The objective of this research is to test the sensitivity of the emission signal as it relates to the spatial distribution of liquid water content in the snowpack. This signal response was evaluated over an area approximately the size of a microwave pixel to assess whether a relationship exists between the aerial extent of wet snow and the magnitude of the TB response. A sensitivity analysis was performed using a high-resolution, physically based snow-emission model to simulate microwave emissions. The signal response to wet snow was evaluated given a range of spatially distributed snowpack conditions. Daily snow states were simulated for a 9-year period using a high-resolution (50 m) energy balance snow model over a 34 × 34 km domain. These data were fed into a microwave emission model to simulate brightness temperatures. A near-linear relationship was found between the TB signal response over a spatially heterogeneous snowpack and the percent area with liquid water content (LWC) present. The results were confirmed by evaluating actual wet snow events over a 9-year period. The model output was also compared to AMSR-E passive microwave satellite data and discharge data at a basin outlet within the study area. The results are used to help understand the impact of spatially distributed snowmelt as detected by passive microwave data