Slider-Block Friction Model for Landslides: Application to Vaiont and La Clapiere Landslides

Accelerating displacements preceding some catastrophic landslides have been found empirically to follow a time-to-failure power law, corresponding to a finite-time singularity of the velocity $v \sim 1/(t_c-t)$ [{\it Voight}, 1988]. Here, we provide a physical basis for this phenomenological law based on a slider-block model using a state and velocity dependent friction law established in the laboratory and used to model earthquake friction. This physical model accounts for and generalizes Voight's observation: depending on the ratio $B/A$ of two parameters of the rate and state friction law and on the initial frictional state of the sliding surfaces characterized by a reduced parameter $x_i$, four possible regimes are found. Two regimes can account for an acceleration of the displacement. We use the slider-block friction model to analyze quantitatively the displacement and velocity data preceding two landslides, Vaiont and La Clapi\`ere. The Vaiont landslide was the catastrophic culmination of an accelerated slope velocity. La Clapi\`ere landslide was characterized by a peak of slope acceleration that followed decades of ongoing accelerating displacements, succeeded by a restabilizing phase. Our inversion of the slider-block model on these data sets shows good fits and suggest to classify the Vaiont (respectively La Clapi\`ere) landslide as belonging to the velocity weakening unstable (respectively strengthening stable) sliding regime.Comment: shortened by focusing of the frictional model, Latex document with AGU style file of 14 pages + 11 figures (1 jpeg photo of figure 6 given separately) + 1 tabl

Towards Landslide Predictions: Two Case Studies

In a previous work [Helmstetter, 2003], we have proposed a simple physical model to explain the accelerating displacements preceding some catastrophic landslides, based on a slider-block model with a state and velocity dependent friction law. This model predicts two regimes of sliding, stable and unstable leading to a critical finite-time singularity. This model was calibrated quantitatively to the displacement and velocity data preceding two landslides, Vaiont (Italian Alps) and La Clapi\`ere (French Alps), showing that the former (resp. later) landslide is in the unstable (resp. stable) sliding regime. Here, we test the predictive skills of the state-and-velocity-dependent model on these two landslides, using a variety of techniques. For the Vaiont landslide, our model provides good predictions of the critical time of failure up to 20 days before the collapse. Tests are also presented on the predictability of the time of the change of regime for la Clapi\`ere landslide.Comment: 30 pages with 12 eps figure

Dragon-kings: mechanisms, statistical methods and empirical evidence

This introductory article presents the special Discussion and Debate volume "From black swans to dragon-kings, is there life beyond power laws?" published in Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics in May 2012. We summarize and put in perspective the contributions into three main themes: (i) mechanisms for dragon-kings, (ii) detection of dragon-kings and statistical tests and (iii) empirical evidence in a large variety of natural and social systems. Overall, we are pleased to witness significant advances both in the introduction and clarification of underlying mechanisms and in the development of novel efficient tests that demonstrate clear evidence for the presence of dragon-kings in many systems. However, this positive view should be balanced by the fact that this remains a very delicate and difficult field, if only due to the scarcity of data as well as the extraordinary important implications with respect to hazard assessment, risk control and predictability.Comment: 20 page

Toward Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions using Seismic Noise

During inter-eruption periods, magma pressurization yields subtle changes of the elastic properties of volcanic edifices. We use the reproducibility properties of the ambient seismic noise recorded on the Piton de la Fournaise volcano to measure relative seismic velocity variations of less than 0.1 % with a temporal resolution of one day. Our results show that five studied volcanic eruptions were preceded by clearly detectable seismic velocity decreases within the zone of magma injection. These precursors reflect the edifice dilatation induced by magma pressurization and can be useful indicators to improve the forecasting of volcanic eruptions.Comment: Supplementary information: http://www-lgit.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr/~fbrengui/brenguier_SI.pdf Supplementary video: http://www-lgit.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr/~fbrengui/brenguierMovieVolcano.av

The promoter polymorphism -232C/G of the PCK1 gene is associated with type 2 diabetes in a UK-resident South Asian population

Background: The PCK1 gene, encoding cytosolic phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase (PEPCK-C), has previously been implicated as a candidate gene for type 2 diabetes (T2D) susceptibility. Rodent models demonstrate that over-expression of Pck1 can result in T2D development and a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the promoter region of human PCK1 (-232C/G) has exhibited significant association with the disease in several cohorts. Within the UK-resident South Asian population, T2D is 4 to 6 times more common than in indigenous white Caucasians. Despite this, few studies have reported on the genetic susceptibility to T2D in this ethnic group and none of these has investigated the possible effect of PCK1 variants. We therefore aimed to investigate the association between common variants of the PCK1 gene and T2D in a UK-resident South Asian population of Punjabi ancestry, originating predominantly from the Mirpur area of Azad Kashmir, Pakistan. \ud \ud Methods: We used TaqMan assays to genotype five tagSNPs covering the PCK1 gene, including the -232C/G variant, in 903 subjects with T2D and 471 normoglycaemic controls. \ud \ud Results: Of the variants studied, only the minor allele (G) of the -232C/G SNP demonstrated a significant association with T2D, displaying an OR of 1.21 (95% CI: 1.03 - 1.42, p = 0.019). \ud \ud Conclusion: This study is the first to investigate the association between variants of the PCK1 gene and T2D in South Asians. Our results suggest that the -232C/G promoter polymorphism confers susceptibility to T2D in this ethnic group. \ud \ud Trial registration: UKADS Trial Registration: ISRCTN38297969

Tri-critical behavior in rupture induced by disorder

We discover a qualitatively new behavior for systems where the load transfer has limiting stress amplification as in real fiber composites. We find that the disorder is a relevant field leading to tri--criticality, separating a first-order regime where rupture occurs without significant precursors from a second-order regime where the macroscopic elastic coefficient exhibit power law behavior. Our results are based on analytical analysis of fiber bundle models and numerical simulations of a two-dimensional tensorial spring-block system in which stick-slip motion and fracture compete.Comment: Revtex, 10 pages, 4 figures available upon reques

The Metabochip, a Custom Genotyping Array for Genetic Studies of Metabolic, Cardiovascular, and Anthropometric Traits

PMCID: PMC3410907This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Pressure Dependence of the Elastic Moduli in Aluminum Rich Al-Li Compounds

I have carried out numerical first principles calculations of the pressure dependence of the elastic moduli for several ordered structures in the Aluminum-Lithium system, specifically FCC Al, FCC and BCC Li, L1_2 Al_3Li, and an ordered FCC Al_7Li supercell. The calculations were performed using the full potential linear augmented plane wave method (LAPW) to calculate the total energy as a function of strain, after which the data was fit to a polynomial function of the strain to determine the modulus. A procedure for estimating the errors in this process is also given. The predicted equilibrium lattice parameters are slightly smaller than found experimentally, consistent with other LDA calculations. The computed elastic moduli are within approximately 10% of the experimentally measured moduli, provided the calculations are carried out at the experimental lattice constant. The LDA equilibrium shear modulus C11-C12 increases from 59.3 GPa in Al, to 76.0 GPa in Al_7Li, to 106.2 GPa in Al_3Li. The modulus C_44 increases from 38.4 GPa in Al to 46.1 GPa in Al_7Li, then falls to 40.7 GPa in Al_3Li. All of the calculated elastic moduli increase with pressure with the exception of BCC Li, which becomes elastically unstable at about 2 GPa, where C_11-C_12 vanishes.Comment: 17 pages (REVTEX) + 7 postscript figure

Genetics of height and risk of atrial fibrillation: A Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies have identified height as a strong risk factor for atrial fibrillation, but this finding may be limited by residual confounding. We aimed to examine genetic variation in height within the Mendelian randomization (MR) framework to determine whether height has a causal effect on risk of atrial fibrillation. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In summary-level analyses, MR was performed using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies of height (GIANT/UK Biobank; 693,529 individuals) and atrial fibrillation (AFGen; 65,446 cases and 522,744 controls), finding that each 1-SD increase in genetically predicted height increased the odds of atrial fibrillation (odds ratio [OR] 1.34; 95% CI 1.29 to 1.40; p = 5 × 10-42). This result remained consistent in sensitivity analyses with MR methods that make different assumptions about the presence of pleiotropy, and when accounting for the effects of traditional cardiovascular risk factors on atrial fibrillation. Individual-level phenome-wide association studies of height and a height genetic risk score were performed among 6,567 European-ancestry participants of the Penn Medicine Biobank (median age at enrollment 63 years, interquartile range 55-72; 38% female; recruitment 2008-2015), confirming prior observational associations between height and atrial fibrillation. Individual-level MR confirmed that each 1-SD increase in height increased the odds of atrial fibrillation, including adjustment for clinical and echocardiographic confounders (OR 1.89; 95% CI 1.50 to 2.40; p = 0.007). The main limitations of this study include potential bias from pleiotropic effects of genetic variants, and lack of generalizability of individual-level findings to non-European populations. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed evidence that height is likely a positive causal risk factor for atrial fibrillation. Further study is needed to determine whether risk prediction tools including height or anthropometric risk factors can be used to improve screening and primary prevention of atrial fibrillation, and whether biological pathways involved in height may offer new targets for treatment of atrial fibrillation

Egalitarian justice and expected value

According to all-luck egalitarianism, the differential distributive effects of both brute luck, which defines the outcome of risks which are not deliberately taken, and option luck, which defines the outcome of deliberate gambles, are unjust. Exactly how to correct the effects of option luck is, however, a complex issue. This article argues that (a) option luck should be neutralized not just by correcting luck among gamblers, but among the community as a whole, because it would be unfair for gamblers as a group to be disadvantaged relative to non-gamblers by bad option luck; (b) individuals should receive the warranted expected results of their gambles, except insofar as individuals blamelessly lacked the ability to ascertain which expectations were warranted; and (c) where societal resources are insufficient to deliver expected results to gamblers, gamblers should receive a lesser distributive share which is in proportion to the expected results. Where all-luck egalitarianism is understood in this way, it allows risk-takers to impose externalities on non-risk-takers, which seems counterintuitive. This may, however, be an advantage as it provides a luck egalitarian rationale for assisting ‘negligent victims’