IPAD: Stable Interpretable Forecasting with Knockoffs Inference

Interpretability and stability are two important features that are desired in many contemporary big data applications arising in economics and finance. While the former is enjoyed to some extent by many existing forecasting approaches, the latter in the sense of controlling the fraction of wrongly discovered features which can enhance greatly the interpretability is still largely underdeveloped in the econometric settings. To this end, in this paper we exploit the general framework of model-X knockoffs introduced recently in Cand\`{e}s, Fan, Janson and Lv (2018), which is nonconventional for reproducible large-scale inference in that the framework is completely free of the use of p-values for significance testing, and suggest a new method of intertwined probabilistic factors decoupling (IPAD) for stable interpretable forecasting with knockoffs inference in high-dimensional models. The recipe of the method is constructing the knockoff variables by assuming a latent factor model that is exploited widely in economics and finance for the association structure of covariates. Our method and work are distinct from the existing literature in that we estimate the covariate distribution from data instead of assuming that it is known when constructing the knockoff variables, our procedure does not require any sample splitting, we provide theoretical justifications on the asymptotic false discovery rate control, and the theory for the power analysis is also established. Several simulation examples and the real data analysis further demonstrate that the newly suggested method has appealing finite-sample performance with desired interpretability and stability compared to some popularly used forecasting methods

Tumor markers in breast cancer - European Group on Tumor Markers recommendations

Recommendations are presented for the routine clinical use of serum and tissue-based markers in the diagnosis and management of patients with breast cancer. Their low sensitivity and specificity preclude the use of serum markers such as the MUC-1 mucin glycoproteins ( CA 15.3, BR 27.29) and carcinoembryonic antigen in the diagnosis of early breast cancer. However, serial measurement of these markers can result in the early detection of recurrent disease as well as indicate the efficacy of therapy. Of the tissue-based markers, measurement of estrogen and progesterone receptors is mandatory in the selection of patients for treatment with hormone therapy, while HER-2 is essential in selecting patients with advanced breast cancer for treatment with Herceptin ( trastuzumab). Urokinase plasminogen activator and plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 are recently validated prognostic markers for lymph node-negative breast cancer patients and thus may be of value in selecting node-negative patients that do not require adjuvant chemotherapy. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel

Serum CEA and CA 15-3 as prognostic factors in primary breast cancer

In the present study, we investigated the association of the serum levels of the tumour markers carcinoembryonic antigen and cancer antigen 15-3 with disease free survival and death from disease in 1046 women with breast cancer without metastases at the time of primary diagnosis in relation to age and the established prognostic factors tumour size, lymph node status, histological grading and hormone receptor status. We found that elevated pre-operative serum marker values were correlated with early relapse (cancer antigen 15-3; P=0.0003) and death from disease (carcinoembryonic antigen, cancer antigen 15-3; P=0.0001 both) in univariate analyses. By comparing pre- and post-operative values we found a decline in values post-surgery. In those patients where marker levels of carcinoembryonic antigen decreased more than 33%, a significantly higher risk for relapse and death from disease (both P=0.0001) in univariate analyses was observed. In multivariate analysis this decrease of carcinoembryonic antigen proved to be an independent prognostic factor. The results for cancer antigen 15-3 were comparable to carcinoembryonic antigen in univariate analyses but showed no significance in multivariate analysis. In this study the post-operative decrease of the serum tumour marker carcinoembryonic antigen was a strong independent prognostic factor for disease free survival and death from disease in breast cancer patients

Sarilumab in patients admitted to hospital with severe or critical COVID-19: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial

Background: Elevated proinflammatory cytokines are associated with greater COVID-19 severity. We aimed to assess safety and efficacy of sarilumab, an interleukin-6 receptor inhibitor, in patients with severe (requiring supplemental oxygen by nasal cannula or face mask) or critical (requiring greater supplemental oxygen, mechanical ventilation, or extracorporeal support) COVID-19. Methods: We did a 60-day, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multinational phase 3 trial at 45 hospitals in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Russia, and Spain. We included adults (≥18 years) admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and pneumonia, who required oxygen supplementation or intensive care. Patients were randomly assigned (2:2:1 with permuted blocks of five) to receive intravenous sarilumab 400 mg, sarilumab 200 mg, or placebo. Patients, care providers, outcome assessors, and investigators remained masked to assigned intervention throughout the course of the study. The primary endpoint was time to clinical improvement of two or more points (seven point scale ranging from 1 [death] to 7 [discharged from hospital]) in the modified intention-to-treat population. The key secondary endpoint was proportion of patients alive at day 29. Safety outcomes included adverse events and laboratory assessments. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04327388; EudraCT, 2020-001162-12; and WHO, U1111-1249-6021. Findings: Between March 28 and July 3, 2020, of 431 patients who were screened, 420 patients were randomly assigned and 416 received placebo (n=84 [20%]), sarilumab 200 mg (n=159 [38%]), or sarilumab 400 mg (n=173 [42%]). At day 29, no significant differences were seen in median time to an improvement of two or more points between placebo (12·0 days [95% CI 9·0 to 15·0]) and sarilumab 200 mg (10·0 days [9·0 to 12·0]; hazard ratio [HR] 1·03 [95% CI 0·75 to 1·40]; log-rank p=0·96) or sarilumab 400 mg (10·0 days [9·0 to 13·0]; HR 1·14 [95% CI 0·84 to 1·54]; log-rank p=0·34), or in proportions of patients alive (77 [92%] of 84 patients in the placebo group; 143 [90%] of 159 patients in the sarilumab 200 mg group; difference −1·7 [−9·3 to 5·8]; p=0·63 vs placebo; and 159 [92%] of 173 patients in the sarilumab 400 mg group; difference 0·2 [−6·9 to 7·4]; p=0·85 vs placebo). At day 29, there were numerical, non-significant survival differences between sarilumab 400 mg (88%) and placebo (79%; difference +8·9% [95% CI −7·7 to 25·5]; p=0·25) for patients who had critical disease. No unexpected safety signals were seen. The rates of treatment-emergent adverse events were 65% (55 of 84) in the placebo group, 65% (103 of 159) in the sarilumab 200 mg group, and 70% (121 of 173) in the sarilumab 400 mg group, and of those leading to death 11% (nine of 84) were in the placebo group, 11% (17 of 159) were in the sarilumab 200 mg group, and 10% (18 of 173) were in the sarilumab 400 mg group. Interpretation: This trial did not show efficacy of sarilumab in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 and receiving supplemental oxygen. Adequately powered trials of targeted immunomodulatory therapies assessing survival as a primary endpoint are suggested in patients with critical COVID-19. Funding: Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

The (in)visibility of gender knowledge in the Physical Activity and Sport Science Degree in Spain

This paper draws on research that aimed to explore the construction of gender relations in sport and physical education (PE) through a national study of Spanish university degree curricula. Spain is a useful case study through which to explore gender knowledge within sport and PE degrees, because, unlike many other countries, it has a common, national curriculum framework for its Physical Activity and Sport Science (PASS) degrees. In addition, it has recently passed a new law concerning the introduction of gender knowledge in higher education. Drawing on Bernstein’s (1990) framework of the pedagogic device, this paper examines how this higher education gender policy becomes recontextualised as universities and lecturers interpret and translate this into the pedagogical texts that make up the PASS curricula. Purposive sampling was used to select 16 of the 37 universities offering PASS degrees in 2012/2013. The research analysed 16 PASS documents at the degree level, and 763 individual subject handbooks. Using discourse analysis, the results showed where and how gender knowledge was incorporated and the extent to which the topic was presented coherently throughout the documents. The analysis revealed five categories of the (in)visibility of gender knowledge within the universities’ instructional discourse. Gender knowledge is largely ignored in PASS curricular documentation, appearing, at best, in highly superficial ways. Despite a national policy requirement on universities to incorporate gender knowledge, this study shows how recontextualisation processes within specific universities’ pedagogic devices operate to marginalise such perspectives within PASS curricula. The research also revealed the significance of individual agents committed to gender equity being situated, and having influence, throughout the pedagogic device. The paper concludes that without a much wider, critical engagement in knowledge about gender equity, PASS degrees will continue to reproduce rather than disrupt the gender relations that have traditionally characterised the field

Seed size influence on germination responses to light and temperature of seven pioneer tree species from the Central Amazon

In Amazon secondary forests are dominated by pioneer species that typically produce large amounts of small and dormant seeds that are able to form a persistent soil seed bank. Seed dormancy in this group of species is overcome by environmental conditions found in open areas, such as high irradiation or alternating temperatures. Nevertheless, a variety of germination responses to environmental factors is known among pioneers; some of them may germinate in diffuse light or in darkness condition at constant temperature. Seed mass can be considered as one of the factors that promotes this variety. Regarding species with very small seeds, it seems that the trigger for germination is light and for larger seeds temperature alternation may be a more important stimulus. In this study we established a relationship between seed mass and germination response to light and alternating temperature for a group of seven woody pioneer species from the Amazon forest. We found that an increase in seed mass was followed by a decrease in the need for light and an increase in the tolerance to alternating temperatures. Understanding germination strategies may contribute with the knowledge of species coexistence in high diverse environments and also may assist those involved in forest management and restoration.Na Amazônia as florestas secundárias são dominadas por espécies pioneiras que, normalmente, produzem grandes quantidades de sementes pequenas, dormentes e capazes de formar bancos de sementes no solo. A dormência neste grupo de espécies é superada pelas condições ambientais de áreas abertas, como alta irradiação ou alternância de temperaturas. No entanto, uma variedade de respostas de germinação aos fatores ambientais é conhecida entre as pioneiras; algumas germinam em luz difusa ou no escuro sob temperatura constante. Um dos fatores promotores desta variedade é a massa das sementes. Parece que para as espécies com sementes muito pequenas, o estímulo para que ocorra germinação é a luz e, para sementes maiores, a alternância de temperatura pode ser um estímulo mais importante. Neste estudo, estabeleceu-se uma relação entre a massa das sementes e a resposta de germinação à luz e temperatura para sete espécies pioneiras arbóreas da floresta amazônica. Descobrimos que o aumento na massa da semente foi acompanhado por diminuição da necessidade por luz e aumento da tolerância à alternância de temperatura. Compreender estratégias de germinação pode contribuir para os conhecimentos sobre a coexistência de espécies em ambientes altamente diversos e também pode ajudar aos pesquisadores envolvidos no manejo e restauração florestal

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time,1,2 and attempts to address it require a clear un derstanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space.3,4 While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes,5–7 vast areas of the tropics remain understudied.8–11 In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world’s most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity,12 but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepre sented in biodiversity databases.13–15 To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications16,17 may elim inate pieces of the Amazon’s biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological com munities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge,18,19 it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple or ganism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region’s vulnerability to environmental change. 15%–18% of the most ne glected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lostinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio