Reducing stranded assets through early action in the Indian power sector

Cost-effective achievement of the Paris Agreement's long-term goals requires the unanimous phase-out of coal power generation by mid-century. However, continued investments in coal power plants will make this transition difficult. India is one of the major countries with significant under construction and planned increase in coal power capacity. To ascertain the likelihood and consequences of the continued expansion of coal power for India's future mitigation options, we use harmonised scenario results from national and global models along with projections from various government reports. Both these approaches estimate that coal capacity is expected to increase until 2030, along with rapid developments in wind and solar power. However, coal capacity stranding of the order of 133–237 GW needs to occur after 2030 if India were to pursue an ambitious climate policy in line with a well-below 2 °C target. Earlier policy strengthening starting after 2020 can reduce stranded assets (14–159 GW) but brings with it political economy and renewable expansion challenges. We conclude that a policy limiting coal plants to those under construction combined with higher solar targets could be politically feasible, prevent significant stranded capacity, and allow higher mitigation ambition in the future

Reducing stranded assets through early action in the Indian power sector

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A climate club to decarbonize the global steel industry

Decarbonizing global steel production requires a fundamental transformation. A sectoral climate club, which goes beyond tariffs and involves deep transnational cooperation, can facilitate this transformation by addressing technical, economic and political uncertainties

Looking under the hood: A comparison of techno-economic assumptions across national and global integrated assessment models

Integrated assessment models are extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation and are informing national decision makers as well as contribute to international scientific assessments. This paper conducts a comprehensive review of techno-economic assumptions in the electricity sector among fifteen different global and national integrated assessment models. Particular focus is given to six major economies in the world: Brazil, China, the EU, India, Japan and the US. The comparison reveals that techno-economic characteristics are quite different across integrated assessment models, both for the base year and future years. It is, however, important to recognize that techno-economic assessments from the literature exhibit an equally large range of parameters as the integrated assessment models reviewed. Beyond numerical differences, the representation of technologies also differs among models, which needs to be taken into account when comparing numerical parameters. While desirable, it seems difficult to fully harmonize techno-economic parameters across a broader range of models due to structural differences in the representation of technology. Therefore, making techno-economic parameters available in the future, together with of the technology representation as well as the exact definitions of the parameters should become the standard approach as it allows an open discussion of appropriate assumptions. © 2019 The Author

Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries

Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries

Macroeconomic assessment of India’s development and mitigation pathways

International audienceAlthough a rapidly growing economy, India faces many challenges, including in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations. Moreover, post-2020 climate actions outlined in India’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement envision development along low-carbon emission pathways. With coal providing almost three-quarters of Indian electricity, achieving such targets will have wide-ranging implications for economic activity. Assessing such implications is the focus of our research. To do so, we use a hybrid modelling architecture that combines the strengths of the AIM/Enduse bottom-up model of energy systems and the IMACLIM top-down economy-wide model. This hybrid architecture rests upon an original dataset that brings together national accounting, energy balance and energy price data. We analyse four scenarios ranging to mid-century: business-as-usual (BAU), 2°C, sustainable 2°C and 1.5°C. Our 2°C pathway proves compatible with economic growth close to the 6% yearly rate of BAU from 2012 to 2050, at the cost of reduced household consumption but with significant positive impact on foreign debt accumulation. The latter impact stems from improvement of the trade balance, whose current large deficit is the primary cause of high fossil fuel imports. Further mitigation effort backing our 1.5°C scenario shows slightly higher annual GDP growth, thereby revealing potential synergies between deep environmental performance and economic growth. Structural change assumptions common to our scenarios significantly transform the activity shares of sectors. The envisioned transition will require appropriate policies, notably to manage the conflicting interests of entrenched players in traditional sectors like coal and oil, and the emerging players of the low-carbon economy

Achieving sustainable development in India along low carbon pathways: Macroeconomic assessment

International audienceAchieving fast and inclusive economic growth concurrently with greenhouse gases (GHG) emission control could have wide-ranging implications for the Indian economy, predominantly fuelled by fossil energies. India faces high income inequality with the bottom 50% of its population owning only 2% of total national wealth. Other developmental challenges include 304 million people living in poverty, 269 million without access to electricity, 92 million without access to safe drinking water, and around 2 million homeless. Despite such challenges, India has committed to reduce the GHG emission intensity of its GDP 33–35% below its 2005 level by 2030, including via turning 40% of its power-generation capacity away from fossil sources. To explore the macroeconomic consequences of achieving development along low-carbon pathways, we use a hybrid modelling architecture that combines the strengths of the AIM/Enduse bottom-up model of Indian energy systems and the IMACLIM top-down economy-wide model of India. This hybrid architecture stands upon an original dataset that reconciles national accounting, energy balance and energy price statistics. With this tool, we demonstrate that low-carbon scenarios can accommodate yearly economic growth of 5.8% from 2013 to 2050 i.e. perform close to if not slightly higher than our business-as-usual scenario, despite high investment costs. This result partly stems from improvement of the Indian trade balance via substantial reduction of large fossil fuel imports. Additionally, it is the consequence of significant shifts of sectoral activity and household consumption towards low-carbon products and services of higher value-added. These transitions would require policies to reconcile the conflicting interests of entrenched businesses in retreating sectors like coal and oil, and the emerging low-carbon sectors and technologies such as renewables, smart grids, electric vehicles, modern biomass energy, solar cooking, carbon capture and storage, etc

Assessing enhanced NDC and climate compatible development pathways for India

India has indicated a strong commitment towards mitigating climate change not only through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) but also reiterating on raising its climate ambitions and committing towards Net Zero (NZ) in Glasgow. This study couples the bottom-up technology-rich energy system model with a macroeconomic computable general equilibrium model to assess the socio-technical, financial and macro-economic implications of India's energy sector transformation away from coal. In order to move towards its NZ target by 2070, India will need to restructure its coal-based power and industry sector. This study provides insights on the challenges (stranded assets, loss of revenue) as well as the opportunities from energy sector restructuring (job creation, energy import reduction, improvement of local environment and human health)

India in 2 °C and well below 2 °C worlds: Opportunities and challenges

India's contributions to meeting global mean temperature increases of 2 °C or well below 2 °C would require transformational changes in its energy systems. A bottom-up model analyzes alternate futures (reference, intended nationally determined contributions and low-carbon scenarios) assuming equal per-capita cumulative emissions rights from 2011 through 2050. The cumulative CO2 budget for India for low-carbon scenarios during this period is estimated to be around 115 Bt-CO2, as against 165 Bt-CO2 for the reference scenario. To achieve such emission reductions, while maintaining high economic growth and meeting sustainable development goals, the paper projects that a range of endemic transformations are required such as shifting toward cleaner fuels, resource efficient technologies, widespread use of Information and communication technology (ICTs) to balance demand and supply (e.g. smart grids), substituting demand in transport (e.g. work from home), aggressive promotion of renewables, lifestyle changes, and CO2 capture, storage and use. Modeling decarbonization to meet the needs of the increasing population and urbanization faces myriad challenges due to the distributed nature of technologies used to provide various services, involving risks and uncertainties. The paper finally outlines specific opportunities and challenges faced to meet the increased mitigation ambition to limit the warming to 2 °C and below