Johansen model for photovoltaic a very short term prediction to electrical power grids in the Island of Mauritius

Sudden variability in solar photovoltaic (PV) power output to electrical grid can not only cause grid instability but can also affect power and frequency quality. Therefore, to study the balance of electrical grid or micro-grid power generated by PV systems in an upstream direction, predicting models can help. The power output conversion is directly proportional to the solar irradiance. Unlike time horizons predictions, many technics of irradiance forecasting have been proposed, long, medium and short term forecasting. For the Island of Mauritius in the Indian Ocean, and regards to key policy decisions, the government has outlined its intention to promote the PV technologies through the local electricity supplier but oversee the technical requirements of PV power output predicts for 1 hour to 15-minutes ahead. So, this paper is illustrating results of the Johansen vector error correction model (VECM) cointegration approach, from the author original and previous studies, but for a very short term prediction of 15-minutes to PV power output in Mauritius. The novelty of this study, is the long run equilibrium relationship of the Johansen model, that was initially determined in previous research works and from dataset in Reunion Island, is then applied to the PV plant in the Island of Mauritius. The proposed prediction model is trained for an hourly and 15-minutes period from year 2019 to year 2022 for a random month and a random day. The experimental results show that the performance metric R2 values are more than 93% signifying that Johansen model is positively and strongly correlated to onsite measurements. This proposed model is a powerful predicting tool and more accuracy should be attained when associated to a machine learning method that can learn from datasets

Generation expansion planning optimisation with renewable energy integration: A review

Generation expansion planning consists of finding the optimal long-term plan for the construction of new generation capacity subject to various economic and technical constraints. It usually involves solving a large-scale, non-linear discrete and dynamic optimisation problem in a highly constrained and uncertain environment. Traditional approaches to capacity planning have focused on achieving a least-cost plan. During the last two decades however, new paradigms for expansion planning have emerged that are driven by environmental and political factors. This has resulted in the formulation of multi-criteria approaches that enable power system planners to simultaneously consider multiple and conflicting objectives in the decision-making process. More recently, the increasing integration of intermittent renewable energy sources in the grid to sustain power system decarbonisation and energy security has introduced new challenges. Such a transition spawns new dynamics pertaining to the variability and uncertainty of these generation resources in determining the best mix. In addition to ensuring adequacy of generation capacity, it is essential to consider the operational characteristics of the generation sources in the planning process. In this paper, we first review the evolution of generation expansion planning techniques in the face of more stringent environmental policies and growing uncertainty. More importantly, we highlight the emerging challenges presented by the intermittent nature of some renewable energy sources. In particular, we discuss the power supply adequacy and operational flexibility issues introduced by variable renewable sources as well as the attempts made to address them. Finally, we identify important future research directions

Impact of decomposition and kriging models on the solar irradiance downscaling accuracy in regions with complex topography

International audienceMany small island states are planning to invest heavily in solar photovoltaics in an attempt to curb their overreliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation. In order to efficiently exploit the abundant solar energy resource, these islands need reliable solar irradiance data. However, the orographic effects arising from their volcanic origins often result in strong variability and uncertainty in the solar resource. In this context, satellite-based models present an effective alternative to ground-based measurements. Different downscaling approaches have been applied that compensate for the large spatial resolution of satellite images and the terrain-related effects that they disregard. Nevertheless, the accuracy of these methods is influenced by the solar radiation decomposition model used. Moreover, the variogram model used in the kriging process to characterize the spatial dependence of the solar radiation has a significant effect on the results. In this study, we compare the performances of seven radiation decomposition models for the anisotropy analysis and seven variogram models for the spatial interpolation of the solar irradiance. A dense network of ground measurements at 43 stations is used to evaluate the accuracy of the different models. Results reveal that the Yao radiation model coupled with the Matern variogram provide the best results

Low-cost bus seating information technology system

Public transport operators often struggle to provide a reliable and efficient transport service. A lack of comprehensive real-time operational data is often cited as a major cause for this state of things. In this study, the authors report on the design, implementation and testing of an Internet of Things-based system, named Bus Seating Information Technology system, which dynamically determines vehicle occupancy while the bus is in service. It uses an array of sensors for detecting events in the vehicle: infrared sensors ascertain whether passengers are entering or leaving the bus; force-sensitive resistors facilitate seat-occupancy detection; a Global Positioning System shield in conjunction with a Raspberry Pi microcomputer enables real-time tracking of the bus; and a USB camera connected to the same Raspberry Pi assist in cross-checking and validating the preceding information. The data collected is uploaded to an online IoT platform (thinger.io), through 3G or 4G if available, and can be visualised via an android app as well as through a desktop computer user interface. The planned functions of the system were tested in a 20-seater bus. Results showed that the system can track the vehicle location, as well as vehicle occupancy in real-time in most cases