Le mood, un nouvel instrument au service de l'analyse dynamique des opinions :Application aux évolutions de la xénophobie en France (1999-2009).

Le présent article répond à deux objectifs. Premièrement il s’agit d’exposer une méthode statistique permettant un suivi dans le temps des évolutions de l’opinion publique là où trop souvent les chercheurs sont confrontés à des données incomplètes et des ruptures de séries. Cette méthode est celle du public policy mood inventée aux États-Unis par James Stimson. Deuxièmement, à partir de cette méthode, nous avons alors construit un indice longitudinal de tolérance aux immigrés sur la base du baromètre de la CNCDH et avons proposé d’en analyser les évolutions. L’opinion a considérablement évolué vers plus de tolérance entre 1990 et 2009 et ces évolutions ne peuvent pas seulement être expliquées par le renouvellement générationnel. Les préjugés xénophobes obéissent à la théorie thermostatique de l’opinion et évoluent désormais selon la couleur politique du gouvernement.This article serves two main objectives. Firstly, we present a statistical method designed to track long-term public opinion trends and cope with incomplete and irregular series breakdowns, an enduring problem in this field of research. This method, invented by James Stimson in the US, is widely associated with the concept of the “public policy mood”. Secondly, based on this method we have constructed a “tolerance-towards-immigration” mood index based on CNCDH (French National Consultative Commission on Human Rights) barometer survey and tried to track its development over time. It turns out that the French public grew increasingly tolerant towards immigrants during the period from 1990 to 2009, and that trend cannot be explained solely by generational renewal. We argue that prejudice levels now obey the thermostatic theory and vary according to the current administration’s political leanings

Inferential power, formalisms, and scientific models

Scientific models need to be investigated if they are to provide valuable information about the systems they represent. Surprisingly, the epistemological question of what enables this investigation has hardly been investigated. Even authors who consider the inferential role of models as central, like Hughes (1997) or Bueno and Colyvan (2011), content themselves with claiming that models contain mathematical resources that provide inferential power. We claim that these notions require further analysis and argue that mathematical formalisms contribute to this inferential role. We characterize formalisms, illustrate how they extend our mathematical resources, and highlight how distinct formalisms offer various inferential affordances

Le mood, un nouvel instrument au service de l'analyse dynamique des opinions :Application aux évolutions de la xénophobie en France (1999-2009).

Le présent article répond à deux objectifs. Premièrement il s’agit d’exposer une méthode statistique permettant un suivi dans le temps des évolutions de l’opinion publique là où trop souvent les chercheurs sont confrontés à des données incomplètes et des ruptures de séries. Cette méthode est celle du public policy mood inventée aux États-Unis par James Stimson. Deuxièmement, à partir de cette méthode, nous avons alors construit un indice longitudinal de tolérance aux immigrés sur la base du baromètre de la CNCDH et avons proposé d’en analyser les évolutions. L’opinion a considérablement évolué vers plus de tolérance entre 1990 et 2009 et ces évolutions ne peuvent pas seulement être expliquées par le renouvellement générationnel. Les préjugés xénophobes obéissent à la théorie thermostatique de l’opinion et évoluent désormais selon la couleur politique du gouvernement.This article serves two main objectives. Firstly, we present a statistical method designed to track long-term public opinion trends and cope with incomplete and irregular series breakdowns, an enduring problem in this field of research. This method, invented by James Stimson in the US, is widely associated with the concept of the “public policy mood”. Secondly, based on this method we have constructed a “tolerance-towards-immigration” mood index based on CNCDH (French National Consultative Commission on Human Rights) barometer survey and tried to track its development over time. It turns out that the French public grew increasingly tolerant towards immigrants during the period from 1990 to 2009, and that trend cannot be explained solely by generational renewal. We argue that prejudice levels now obey the thermostatic theory and vary according to the current administration’s political leanings

From Linear Temporal Logic Properties to Rewrite Propositions

International audienceIn the regular model-checking framework, reachability analysis can be guided by temporal logic properties, for instance to achieve the counter example guided abstraction refinement (CEGAR) objectives. A way to perform this analysis is to translate a temporal logic formula expressed on maximal rewriting words into a "rewrite proposition" - a propositional formula whose atoms are language comparisons, and then to generate semi-decision procedures based on (approximations of) the rewrite proposition. This approach has recently been studied using a non-automatic translation method. The extent to which such a translation can be systematised needs to be investigated, as well as the applicability of approximated methods wherever no exact translation can be effected. This paper presents contributions to that effect: (1) we investigate suitable semantics for LTL on maximal rewriting words and their influence on the feasibility of a translation, and (2) we propose a general scheme providing exact results on a fragment of LTL corresponding mainly to safety formulæ, and approximations on a larger fragment

{SAT} Solvers for Queries over Tree Automata with Constraints

International audienceTree automata turned out to be a very convenient framework for modeling and proving properties on infinite systems like communication protocols, Java programs and also in the context of XML programming. Unfortunately, these works are not always supported by efficient verification and validation tools. This paper investigates the use of two SAT solvers --- minisat and picosat--- to evaluate queries over tree automata with global equality and disequality constraints (TAGED s for short). Unlike general tree automata, TAGED s allow to express constraints useful for e.g., evaluating queries over XML documents, like "in the document, two nodes do not have the same key". These queries being based on the membership problem which is NP-complete for TAGEDs, we propose an efficient SAT encoding of the membership problem for TAGEDs and we show its correctness and soundness. The paper reports on the experimental results, and implementation details are given

Dynamic Microsimulation Models Using to Analyze Retirement Systems Reforms: An Essay of Synthesis

Dynamic microsimulation models applied to economics were first introduced in the United States at the end of the 1960’s. Since the 1980’s, they have been rapidly developing due to the increase in computational capabilities and to the availability of longitudinal data. Dynamic microsimulation provides a tool for analysing nonlinear pension systems by simulating individual trajectories of heterogeneous economic agents. Hence, this method highly improves the understanding of pension reforms, the evaluation of pensioners’ rights and intra- as well as inter-generational redistributions. Moreover, it takes into account methods and results from other kinds of analyses, such as behavioural micro-econometrics. This article sets out a synthesis of the achievements of dynamic microsimulation studies of pension systems. The first section draws up a typology of useful methods in the field of pension systems studies. In the second section, a technical assessment of the method is carried out. Various sources of errors in the calculation of individual trajectories and in the determination of aggregated results are examined. Two simple numerical examples illustrate some properties of stochastic simulations. Our analysis recommends better knowledge of the statistical properties of dynamic microsimulation. It favours setting up databases which directly answer the needs of dynamic microsimulation. Finally, the third section reviews an extensive range of dynamic microsimulation models from across OECD countries, and sums up the achievements of the French INSEE model, DESTINIE.Dynamic Microsimulation, long run prospective studies, unfunded retirement systems modelling

The Alestle - Vol. 57 No. 30 - 01/11/2005

Vol. 57 No. 3

Symmetry-selected spin-split hybrid states in C60_{60}/ferromagnetic interfaces

The understanding of orbital hybridization and spin-polarization at the organic-ferromagnetic interface is essential in the search for efficient hybrid spintronic devices. Here, using first-principles calculations, we report a systematic study of spin-split hybrid states of C$_{60}$ deposited on various ferromagnetic surfaces: bcc-Cr(001), bcc-Fe(001), bcc-Co(001), fcc-Co(001) and hcp-Co(0001). We show that the adsorption geometry of the molecule with respect to the surface crystallographic orientation of the magnetic substrate as well as the strength of the interaction play an intricate role in the spin-polarization of the hybrid orbitals. We find that a large spin-polarization in vacuum above the buckyball can only be achieved if the molecule is adsorbed upon a bcc-(001) surface by its pentagonal ring. Therefore bcc-Cr(001), bcc-Fe(001) and bcc-Co(001) are the optimal candidates. Spin-polarized scanning tunneling spectroscopy measurements on single C$_{60}$ adsorbed on Cr(001) and Co/Pt(111) also confirm that both the symmetry of the substrate and of the molecular conformation have a strong influence on the induced spin polarization. Our finding may give valuable insights for further engineering of spin filtering devices through single molecular orbitals.Comment: 10 pages, 9 figure

Formal verification, scientific code, and the epistemological heterogeneity of computational science

Various errors can affect scientific code and detecting them is a central concern within computational science. Could formal verification methods, which are now available tools, be widely adopted to guarantee the general reliability of scientific code? After discussing their benefits and drawbacks, we claim that, absent significant changes as regards features like their user-friendliness and versatility, these methods are unlikely to be adopted throughout computational science, beyond certain specific contexts for which they are well-suited. This issue exemplifies the epistemological heterogeneity of computational science: profoundly different practices can be appropriate to meet the reliability challenge that rises for scientific code

Directional hearing: from biophysical binaural cues to directional hearing outdoors

We report the cyclization of 3-substituted <i>N</i>-acetylindoles for the straightforward synthesis of 3,3-spiroindolines via the Friedel–Crafts reaction of an appended aryl group or the formal [2 + 2] cycloaddition of an appended alkene. Our strategy involves an Umpolung of the C2C3 bond of the indole nucleus during FeCl₃-mediated hydroarylation or annulation reactions