Application of knowledge-driven spatial modelling approaches and uncertainty management to a study of Rift Valley fever in Africa

BACKGROUND: There are few studies that have investigated uncertainties surrounding the scientific community's knowledge of the geographical distribution of major animal diseases. This is particularly relevant to Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic disease causing destructive outbreaks in livestock and man, as the geographical range of the disease is widening to involve previously unaffected regions. In the current study we investigate the application of methods developed in the decision sciences: multiple criteria decision making using weighted linear combination and ordered weighted averages, and Dempster-Shafer theory, implemented within the geographical information system IDRISI, to obtain a greater understanding of uncertainty related to the geographical distribution of RVF. The focus is on presenting alternate methods where extensive field data are not available and traditional, model-based approaches to disease mapping are impossible to conduct. RESULTS: Using a compensatory multiple criteria decision making model based on weighted linear combination, most of sub-Saharan Africa was suitable for endemic circulation of RVF. In contrast, areas where rivers and lakes traversed semi-arid regions, such as those bordering the Sahara, were highly suitable for RVF epidemics and wet, tropical areas of central Africa had low suitability. Using a moderately non-compensatory model based on ordered weighted averages, the areas considered suitable for endemic and epidemic RVF were more restricted. Varying the relative weights of the different factors in the models did not affect suitability estimates to a large degree, but variations in model structure had a large impact on our suitability estimates. Our Dempster-Shafer analysis supported the belief that a range of semi-arid areas were suitable for RVF epidemics and the plausibility that many other areas of the continent were suitable. Areas where high levels of uncertainty were highlighted included the Ethiopian Highlands, southwest Kenya and parts of West Africa. CONCLUSION: We have demonstrated the potential of methods developed in the decision sciences to improve our understanding of uncertainties surrounding the geographical distribution of animal diseases, particularly where information is sparse, and encourage wider application of the decision science methodology in the field of animal health

Ethanol consumption impairs vestibulo-ocular reflex function measured by the video head impulse test and dynamic visual acuity

Ethanol affects many parts of the nervous system, from the periphery to higher cognitive functions. Due to the established effects of ethanol on vestibular and oculomotor function, we wished to examine its effect on two new tests of the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR): the video head impulse test (vHIT) and dynamic visual acuity (DVA). We tested eight healthy subjects with no history of vestibular disease after consumption of standardized drinks of 40% ethanol. We used a repeated measures design to track vestibular function over multiple rounds of ethanol consumption up to a maximum breath alcohol concentration (BrAC) of 1.38‰. All tests were normal at baseline. VOR gain measured by vHIT decreased 25% by the highest BrAC level tested in each subject. Catch-up saccades were negligible at baseline and increased in number and size with increasing ethanol consumption (from 0.13° to 1.43° cumulative amplitude per trial). DVA scores increased by 86% indicating a deterioration of acuity, while static visual acuity (SVA) remained unchanged. Ethanol consumption systematically impaired the VOR evoked by high-acceleration head impulses and led to a functional loss of visual acuity during head movement.NHMR

Bariatric surgery in morbidly obese insulin resistant humans normalises insulin signalling but not insulin-stimulated glucose disposal.

This is the final published version. Available from PLoS via the DOI in this record.All relevant data are available from Figshare, under the DOI http://dx.doi. org/10.6084/m9.figshare.1292883.AIMS: Weight-loss after bariatric surgery improves insulin sensitivity, but the underlying molecular mechanism is not clear. To ascertain the effect of bariatric surgery on insulin signalling, we examined glucose disposal and Akt activation in morbidly obese volunteers before and after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB), and compared this to lean volunteers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The hyperinsulinaemic euglycaemic clamp, at five infusion rates, was used to determine glucose disposal rates (GDR) in eight morbidly obese (body mass index, BMI=47.3 ± 2.2 kg/m(2)) patients, before and after RYGB, and in eight lean volunteers (BMI=20.7 ± 0.7 kg/m2). Biopsies of brachioradialis muscle, taken at fasting and insulin concentrations that induced half-maximal (GDR50) and maximal (GDR100) GDR in each subject, were used to examine the phosphorylation of Akt-Thr308, Akt-473, and pras40, in vivo biomarkers for Akt activity. RESULTS: Pre-operatively, insulin-stimulated GDR was lower in the obese compared to the lean individuals (P<0.001). Weight-loss of 29.9 ± 4 kg after surgery significantly improved GDR50 (P=0.004) but not GDR100 (P=0.3). These subjects still remained significantly more insulin resistant than the lean individuals (p<0.001). Weight loss increased insulin-stimulated skeletal muscle Akt-Thr308 and Akt-Ser473 phosphorylation, P=0.02 and P=0.03 respectively (MANCOVA), and Akt activity towards the substrate PRAS40 (P=0.003, MANCOVA), and in contrast to GDR, were fully normalised after the surgery (obese vs lean, P=0.6, P=0.35, P=0.46, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that although Akt activity substantially improved after surgery, it did not lead to a full restoration of insulin-stimulated glucose disposal. This suggests that a major defect downstream of, or parallel to, Akt signalling remains after significant weight-loss.Diabetes Research and Wellness FoundatioMedical Research Council (MRC)Astra Zenec

Median knock-down time as a new method for evaluating insecticide-treated textiles for mosquito control

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Insecticide treated bed nets are major tools for the Roll Back Malaria campaign. There are two types of Long-Lasting Insecticide-treated Nets (LNs) on the market: coated nets and insecticide-incorporated nets. Nets provided to this market need a recommendation from the World Health Organization to be purchased by donors and NGOs. During laboratory study (phase I), the first step consists in evaluating the wash resistance of a new LN product. When insecticide-incorporated nets are washed, it takes time to regenerate the insecticidal activity, i.e. insecticide must migrate to the net surface to be accessible to mosquitoes. The interval of time required for regeneration must be carefully determined to ensure the accuracy of further results. WHOPES procedures currently recommend the determination of the regeneration time by using mortality data. However, as mortality cannot exceed 100%, a LN that regenerates a surface concentration exceeding the dosage for 100% mortality, will have its regeneration time underestimated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Median Knock Down Time (MKDT) was determined as function of insecticide dosage on an inert surface, glass, and on polyester nettings using an acetone solution or a simple emulsion. Dosage response was also established for mortality data. The same method was then applied to a commercially polyethylene netting, currently under WHOPES evaluation, to determine the dynamics of regeneration as function of repeated washings. The deltamethrin content of these nets was estimated by Capillary Gas Chromatography (GC-ECD).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>MKDT was a linear function of log insecticide dosage on glass as on nettings. Mortality data were either 0 or 100% for most concentrations except for a narrow range. MKDT was log linear function of total deltamethrin content in a commercial polyethylene net exposed to washings. The regeneration time of this net increased with the number of washes and MKDT became higher. A new, easy and rapid method to determine MKDT is suggested.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The MKDT is linearly correlated to log dosage on a given substrate and shows no saturation as mortality data do. It is suited to determine regeneration time of a product that is exposed to a stress, like washing or heating, where the process impacts on the bio-availability of the insecticide. Mortality data are useful for measuring product efficacy, whereas MKDT are better to measure dynamics of surface concentration like regeneration after a stressing process. Change in MKDT can be used to illustrate the loss of insecticide due to washing, but the slope of the curve is product and surface-dependent.</p

Characteristics and outcome of patients with newly diagnosed advanced or metastatic lung cancer admitted to intensive care units (ICUs)

BACKGROUND: Although patients with advanced or metastatic lung cancer have poor prognosis, admission to the ICU for management of life-threatening complications has increased over the years. Patients with newly diagnosed lung cancer appear as good candidates for ICU admission, but more robust information to assist decisions is lacking. The aim of our study was to evaluate the prognosis of newly diagnosed unresectable lung cancer patients. METHODS: A retrospective multicentric study analyzed the outcome of patients admitted to the ICU with a newly diagnosed lung cancer (diagnosis within the month) between 2010 and 2013. RESULTS: Out of the 100 patients, 30 had small cell lung cancer (SCLC) and 70 had non-small cell lung cancer. (Thirty patients had already been treated with oncologic treatments.) Mechanical ventilation (MV) was performed for 81 patients. Seventeen patients received emergency chemotherapy during their ICU stay. ICU, hospital, 3- and 6-month mortality were, respectively, 47, 60, 67 and 71%. Hospital mortality was 60% when invasive MV was used alone, 71% when MV and vasopressors were needed and 83% when MV, vasopressors and hemodialysis were required. In multivariate analysis, hospital mortality was associated with metastatic disease (OR 4.22 [1.4-12.4]; p = 0.008), need for invasive MV (OR 4.20 [1.11-16.2]; p = 0.030), while chemotherapy in ICU was associated with survival (OR 0.23, [0.07-0.81]; p = 0.020). CONCLUSION: This study shows that ICU management can be appropriate for selected newly diagnosed patients with advanced lung cancer, and chemotherapy might improve outcome for patients with SCLC admitted for cancer-related complications. Nevertheless, tumors' characteristics, numbers and types of organ dysfunction should be taken into account in the decisional process before admitting these patients in ICU.Peer reviewe

Good Vibrations : The evolution of whisking in small mammals

Special Issue: Extreme Anatomy: Living Beyond the Edge. January 2020Abstract While most mammals have whiskers, some tactile specialists - mainly small, nocturnal and arboreal species - can actively move their whiskers in a symmetrical, cyclic movement called whisking. Whisking enables mammals to rapidly, tactually scan their environment in order to efficiently guide locomotion and foraging in complex habitats. The muscle architecture that enables whisking is preserved from marsupials to primates, prompting researchers to suggest that a common ancestor might have had moveable whiskers. Studying the evolution of whisker touch sensing is difficult, and we suggest that measuring an aspect of skull morphology that correlates with whisking would enable comparisons between extinct and extant mammals. We find that whisking mammals have larger infraorbital foramen (IOF) areas, which indicates larger infraorbital nerves and an increase in sensory acuity. While this relationship is quite variable and IOF area cannot be used to solely predict the presence of whisking, whisking mammals all have large IOF areas. Generally, this pattern holds true regardless of an animal's substrate preferences or activity patterns. Data from fossil mammals and ancestral character state reconstruction and tracing techniques for extant mammals suggest that whisking is not the ancestral state for therian mammals. Instead, whisking appears to have evolved independently as many as seven times across the clades Marsupialia, Afrosoricida, Eulipotyphla and Rodentia, with Xenarthra the only placental superordinal clade lacking whisking species. However, the term whisking only captures symmetrical and rhythmic movements of the whiskers, rather than all possible whisker movements, and early mammals may still have had moveable whiskers. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

The pros and cons of getting engaged in an online social community embedded within digital cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia: survey among users

Background: Sleepio is a proven digital sleep improvement programme based on cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) techniques. Users have the option to join an online community that includes weekly expert discussions, peer-to-peer discussion forums and personal message walls. Objective: The aims of this study were to (1) explore the reasons for deciding to engage with the Sleepio online community, (2) explore the potential benefits arising from engagement with the online community, (3) identify and describe any problematic issues related to use of the online community. Methods: In total, 100 respondents (70% female; mean age 51, range 26-82 years) completed the online survey. Most respondents had started Sleepio with chronic sleep problems (59% to to 10 years, 35% >10years), and had actively engaged with the online community (85% had made a discussion or wall post). At the time of the survey, respondents had used Sleepio for a median of 12 weeks (range from 3 weeks to 2 years). Results: Responses to the open-ended questions were analysed using thematic analysis. This analysis revealed five initial drivers for engagement including: 1) the desire to connect with people facing similar issues; 2) seeking personalised advice; 3) curiosity; 4) being invited by other members; and 5) wanting to use all available sleep improvement tools. Advantages of engagement included: access to continuous support, reduced sense of isolation, being part of a non-judgmental community, personalised advice, positive comparisons with others, encouragement to keep going, and altruism. Five potential disadvantages were: design and navigation issues, uncertain quality of user-generated content, negative comparisons with others, excessive time commitments, and data privacy concerns. Participants related their community experiences to engagement with the Sleepio programme with the many stating it had supported their efforts to achieve sleep improvement, as well as helping with adherence and commitment to the programme. Conclusions: Despite some concerns, members regarded the Sleepio community as a valuable resource. Online communities may be a useful means through which to support long-term engagement with online therapy for insomnia

Saliency Benchmarking Made Easy: Separating Models, Maps and Metrics

Dozens of new models on fixation prediction are published every year and compared on open benchmarks such as MIT300 and LSUN. However, progress in the field can be difficult to judge because models are compared using a variety of inconsistent metrics. Here we show that no single saliency map can perform well under all metrics. Instead, we propose a principled approach to solve the benchmarking problem by separating the notions of saliency models, maps and metrics. Inspired by Bayesian decision theory, we define a saliency model to be a probabilistic model of fixation density prediction and a saliency map to be a metric-specific prediction derived from the model density which maximizes the expected performance on that metric given the model density. We derive these optimal saliency maps for the most commonly used saliency metrics (AUC, sAUC, NSS, CC, SIM, KL-Div) and show that they can be computed analytically or approximated with high precision. We show that this leads to consistent rankings in all metrics and avoids the penalties of using one saliency map for all metrics. Our method allows researchers to have their model compete on many different metrics with state-of-the-art in those metrics: "good" models will perform well in all metrics.Comment: published at ECCV 201

Cholestatic hepatitis as a possible new side-effect of oxycodone: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Oxycodone is a widely-used semisynthetic opioid analgesic that has been used for over eighty years. Oxycodone is known to cause side effects such as nausea, pruritus, dizziness, constipation and somnolence. As far as we are aware cholestatic hepatitis as a result of oxycodone use has not been reported so far in the world literature.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>A 34-year-old male presented with cholestatic jaundice and severe pruritus after receiving oxycodone for analgesia post-T11 vertebrectomy. Extensive laboratory investigations and imaging studies did not reveal any other obvious cause for his jaundice and a liver biopsy confirmed canalicular cholestatis suggestive of drug-induced hepatotoxicity. The patient's symptoms and transaminases normalised on withdrawal of oxycodone confirming that oxycodone was the probable cause of the patient's hepatotoxicity.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We conclude that cholestatic hepatitis is possibly a rare side effect of oxycodone use. Physicians should be aware of the possibility of this potentially serious picture of drug-induced hepatotoxicity.</p