On the Modeling and Forecasting of Socioeconomic Mortality Differentials: An Application to Deprivation and Mortality in England

In any country, mortality rates and indices such as life expectancy usually differ across subpopulations, for example, defined by gender, geographic area, or socioeconomic variables (e.g., occupation, level of education, or income). These differentials, and in particular those related to socioeconomic circumstances, pose important challenges for the design of public policies for tackling social inequalities, as well as for the design of pension systems and the management of longevity risk in pension funds and annuity portfolios. We discuss the suitability for the modeling and forecasting of socioeconomic differences in mortality of several multiple population extensions of the Lee-Carter model, including a newly introduced relative model based on the modeling of the mortality in socioeconomic subpopulations alongside the mortality of a reference population. Using England mortality data for socioeconomic subpopulations defined using a deprivation index, we show that this new relative model exhibits the best results in terms of goodness of fit and ex post forecasting performance. We then use this model to derive projections of deprivation specific mortality rates and life expectancies at pensioner ages and analyze the impact of socioeconomic differences in mortality on the valuation of annuities

Cluster size entropy in the Axelrod model of social influence: small-world networks and mass media

We study the Axelrod's cultural adaptation model using the concept of cluster size entropy, $S_{c}$ that gives information on the variability of the cultural cluster size present in the system. Using networks of different topologies, from regular to random, we find that the critical point of the well-known nonequilibrium monocultural-multicultural (order-disorder) transition of the Axelrod model is unambiguously given by the maximum of the $S_{c}(q)$ distributions. The width of the cluster entropy distributions can be used to qualitatively determine whether the transition is first- or second-order. By scaling the cluster entropy distributions we were able to obtain a relationship between the critical cultural trait $q_c$ and the number $F$ of cultural features in regular networks. We also analyze the effect of the mass media (external field) on social systems within the Axelrod model in a square network. We find a new partially ordered phase whose largest cultural cluster is not aligned with the external field, in contrast with a recent suggestion that this type of phase cannot be formed in regular networks. We draw a new $q-B$ phase diagram for the Axelrod model in regular networks.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figure

Improvement of Academic Analytics Processes Through the Identification of the Main Variables Affecting Early Dropout of First-Year Students in Technical Degrees. A Case Study

The field of research on the phenomenon of university dropout and the factors that promote it is of the utmost relevance, especially in the current context of the Covid-19 pandemic. Students who have started degrees in the last two years have completed their university studies in periods of lockdown and unlike traditional education, this has often involved taking online classes. In this scenario, the students' motivation and the way they are able to cope with the difficulties of the first year of a university course are very relevant, especially in technical degrees. Previous studies show that a large number of undergraduate students drop out prematurely. In order to act to reduce dropout rates, schools, especially technical schools, should be able to map the entry profile of students and identify the factors that promote early dropout. This paper focuses on identifying, categorizing and evaluating a number of indicators according to the perception of tutors and the field of study, based on the application of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The results support the approach taken, as they show how tutors can identify students at risk of dropping out at the beginning of the course and act proactively to monitor and motivate them

Edge phonons in black phosphorus

Exfoliated black phosphorus has recently emerged as a new two-dimensional crystal that, due to its peculiar and anisotropic crystalline and electronic band structures, may have potentially important applications in electronics, optoelectronics and photonics. Despite the fact that the edges of layered crystals host a range of singular properties whose characterization and exploitation are of utmost importance for device development, the edges of black phosphorus remain poorly characterized. In this work, the atomic structure and the behavior of phonons near different black phosphorus edges are experimentally and theoretically studied using Raman spectroscopy and density functional theory calculations. Polarized Raman results show the appearance of new modes at the edges of the sample, and their spectra depend on the atomic structure of the edges (zigzag or armchair). Theoretical simulations confirm that the new modes are due to edge phonon states that are forbidden in the bulk, and originated from the lattice termination rearrangements.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figure

Molecular thermodynamics of adsorption using discrete-potential systems

A molecular thermodynamics approach has been developed in order to describe the adsorption of fluids onto solid surfaces based on the use of discrete-potential fluid models. Using perturbation theories for fluids such as the Statistical Associating Fluid Theory (SAFT) and the Discrete Potential Theory (DPT), in combination with molecular simulation, we have formulated a two-dimensional approach to describe systems of interest for the oil industry, such as adsorption isotherms of carbon dioxide and asphaltenes