Learning from failure

We study decentralized learning in organizations. Decentralization is captured through a symmetry constraint on agents’ strategies. Among such attainable strategies, we solve for optimal and equilibrium strategies. We model the organization as a repeated game with imperfectly observable actions. A fixed but unknown subset of action profiles are successes and all other action profiles are failures. The game is played until either there is a success or the time horizon is reached. For any time horizon, including infinity, we demonstrate existence of optimal attainable strategies and show that they are Nash equilibria. For some time horizons, we can solve explicitly for the optimal attainable strategies and show uniqueness. The solution connects the learning behavior of agents to the fundamentals that characterize the organization: Agents in the organization respond more slowly to failure as the future becomes more important, the size of the organization increases and the probability of success decreases.Game theory

Liever inleiden dan afwachten bij aterme zwangerschapshypertensie en milde preeclampsie: HYPITAT-studie

OBJECTIVE: To investigate what would benefit women with mild full-term pregnancy-related hypertension most: induction of labour or expectant monitoring, from the perspective of clinical effectiveness, maternal quality of life, and costs. DESIGN: Randomised clinical trial. Trial registration number ISRCTN08132825. METHODS: We undertook a multicentre randomised controlled trial in 38 hospitals in the Netherlands between October 2005 and March 2008. We enrolled patients with a singleton pregnancy in cephalic presentation at 36-41 weeks' gestation, who had gestational hypertension or mild preeclampsia. Participants were randomly allocated to receive either induction of labour or expectant monitoring. The primary outcome was a composite measure of poor maternal outcome, defined as maternal mortality, maternal morbidity (eclampsia, 'haemolysis, elevated liver enzymes, low platelets' (HELLP) syndrome, pulmonary oedema, thrombo-embolic disease and abruptio placentae), progression to severe hypertension or proteinuria, and major postpartum haemorrhage. Secondary outcomes were mode of delivery, neonatal outcome, maternal quality of life and costs. Analysis was by intention to treat. RESULTS: A total of 756 patients were allocated to receive induction of labour (n = 377 patients) or expectant monitoring (n = 379). No cases of maternal or neonatal death or eclampsia were recorded. Development of poor maternal outcome was significantly lower in the induction of labour group (117 women) than the expectant monitoring group (166 women) (31% versus 44%; relative risk 0.71 (95% CI: 0.59-0.86); p < 0.001). The caesarean section rate was lower among women in the induction of labour group (n = 54) compared to women in the expectant monitoring group (n = 72) (14% versus 19%; relative risk 0.75 (95% CI: 0.55-1.04)< p = 0.085). Neonatal outcomes and quality of life were comparable between both groups. Induction of labour is a cost saving strategy (difference euro 831). CONCLUSION: For women with full-term gestational hypertension and pre-eclampsia, induction of labour is associated with improved maternal outcome and lower costs, without the additional risk of a caesarean section being necessary

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Disease burden of foodborne pathogens in the Netherlands, 2009

To inform risk management decisions on control, prevention and surveillance of foodborne disease, the disease burden of foodborne pathogens is estimated using Disability Adjusted Life Years as a summary metric of public health. Fourteen pathogens that can be transmitted by food are included in the study (four infectious bacteria, three toxin-producing bacteria, four viruses and three protozoa). Data represent the burden in the Netherlands in 2009. The incidence of community-acquired non-consulting cases, patients consulting their general practitioner, those admitted to hospital, as well as the incidence of sequelae and fatal cases is estimated using surveillance data, cohort studies and published data. Disease burden includes estimates of duration and disability weights for non-fatal cases and loss of statistical life expectancy for fatal cases. Results at pathogen level are combined with data from an expert survey to assess the fraction of cases attributable to food, and the main food groups contributing to transmission. Among 1.8 million cases of disease (approx. 10,600 per 100,000) and 233 deaths (1.4 per 100,000) by these fourteen pathogens, approximately one-third (680,000 cases; 4100 per 100,000) and 78 deaths (0.5 per 100,000) are attributable to foodborne transmission. The total burden is 13,500 DALY (82 DALY per 100,000). On a population level, Toxoplasma gondii, thermophilic Campylobacter spp., rotaviruses, noroviruses and Salmonella spp. cause the highest disease burden. The burden per case is highest for perinatal listeriosis and congenital toxoplasmosis. Approximately 45% of the total burden is attributed to food. T. gondii and Campylobacter spp. appear to be key targets for additional intervention efforts, with a focus on food and environmental pathways. The ranking of foodborne pathogens based on burden is very different compared to when only incidence is considered. The burden of acute disease is a relatively small part of the total burden. In the Netherlands, the burden of foodborne pathogens is similar to the burden of upper respiratory and urinary tract infections

Recurrent Disease After Esophageal Cancer Surgery A Substudy of The Dutch Nationwide Ivory Study

Objective: This study investigated the patterns, predictors, and survival of recurrent disease following esophageal cancer surgery. Background: Survival of recurrent esophageal cancer is usually poor, with limited prospects of remission. Methods: This nationwide cohort study included patients with distal esophageal and gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma after curatively intended esophagectomy in 2007 to 2016 (follow-up until January 2020). Patients with distant metastases detected during surgery were excluded. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to identify predictors of recurrent disease. Multivariable Cox regression was used to determine the association of recurrence site and treatment intent with postrecurrence survival. Results: Among 4626 patients, 45.1% developed recurrent disease a median of 11 months postoperative, of whom most had solely distant metastases (59.8%). Disease recurrences were most frequently hepatic (26.2%) or pulmonary (25.1%). Factors significantly associated with disease recurrence included young age (<= 65 y), male sex, adenocarcinoma, open surgery, transthoracic esophagectomy, nonradical resection, higher T-stage, and tumor positive lymph nodes. Overall, median postrecurrence survival was 4 months [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 3.6-4.4]. After curatively intended recurrence treatment, median survival was 20 months (95% CI: 16.4-23.7). Survival was more favorable after locoregional compared with distant recurrence (hazard ratio: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.65-0.84). Conclusions: This study provides important prognostic information assisting in the surveillance and counseling of patients after curatively intended esophageal cancer surgery. Nearly half the patients developed recurrent disease, with limited prospects of survival. The risk of recurrence was higher in patients with a higher tumor stage, nonradical resection and positive lymph node harvest

Trends in Distal Esophageal and Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer Care: The Dutch Nationwide Ivory Study.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated the nationwide trends in care and accompanied postoperative outcomes for patients with distal esophageal and gastro-esophageal junction cancer. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: The introduction of transthoracic esophagectomy, minimally invasive surgery, and neo-adjuvant chemo(radio)therapy changed care for patients with esophageal cancer. METHODS: Patients after elective transthoracic and transhiatal esophagectomy for distal esophageal or gastroesophageal junction carcinoma in the Netherlands between 2007-2016 were included. The primary aim was to evaluate trends in both care and postoperative outcomes for the included patients. Additionally, postoperative outcomes after transthoracic and tran-shiatal esophagectomy were compared, stratified by time periods. RESULTS: Among 4712 patients included, 74% had distal esophageal tumors and 87% had adenocarcinomas. Between 2007 and 2016, the proportion of transthoracic esophagectomy increased from 41% to 81%, and neo-adjuvant treatment and minimally invasive esophagectomy increased from 31% to 96%, and from 7% to 80%, respectively. Over this 10-year period, postoperative outcomes improved: postoperative morbidity decreased from 66.6% to 61.8% ( P = 0.001), R0 resection rate increased from 90.0% to 96.5% (P <0.001), median lymph node harvest increased from 15 to 19 ( P <0.001), and median survival increased from 35 to 41 months ( P = 0.027). CONCLUSION: In this nationwide cohort, a transition towards more neo-adju-vant treatment, transthoracic esophagectomy and minimally invasive surgery was observed over a 10-year period, accompanied by decreased postoperative morbidity, improved surgical radicality and lymph node harvest, and improved survival

Recurrent Disease After Esophageal Cancer Surgery: A Substudy of The Dutch Nationwide Ivory Study

OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the patterns, predictors, and survival of recurrent disease following esophageal cancer surgery. BACKGROUND: Survival of recurrent esophageal cancer is usually poor, with limited prospects of remission. METHODS: This nationwide cohort study included patients with distal esophageal and gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma after curatively intended esophagectomy in 2007 to 2016 (follow-up until January 2020). Patients with distant metastases detected during surgery were excluded. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to identify predictors of recurrent disease. Multivariable Cox regression was used to determine the association of recurrence site and treatment intent with postrecurrence survival. RESULTS: Among 4626 patients, 45.1% developed recurrent disease a median of 11 months postoperative, of whom most had solely distant metastases (59.8%). Disease recurrences were most frequently hepatic (26.2%) or pulmonary (25.1%). Factors significantly associated with disease recurrence included young age (≤65 y), male sex, adenocarcinoma, open surgery, transthoracic esophagectomy, nonradical resection, higher T-stage, and tumor positive lymph nodes. Overall, median postrecurrence survival was 4 months [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 3.6-4.4]. After curatively intended recurrence treatment, median survival was 20 months (95% CI: 16.4-23.7). Survival was more favorable after locoregional compared with distant recurrence (hazard ratio: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.65-0.84). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides important prognostic information assisting in the surveillance and counseling of patients after curatively intended esophageal cancer surgery. Nearly half the patients developed recurrent disease, with limited prospects of survival. The risk of recurrence was higher in patients with a higher tumor stage, nonradical resection and positive lymph node harvest

Safety and efficacy of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs to reduce ileus after colorectal surgery

Background: Ileus is common after elective colorectal surgery, and is associated with increased adverse events and prolonged hospital stay. The aim was to assess the role of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) for reducing ileus after surgery. Methods: A prospective multicentre cohort study was delivered by an international, student- and trainee-led collaborative group. Adult patients undergoing elective colorectal resection between January and April 2018 were included. The primary outcome was time to gastrointestinal recovery, measured using a composite measure of bowel function and tolerance to oral intake. The impact of NSAIDs was explored using Cox regression analyses, including the results of a centre-specific survey of compliance to enhanced recovery principles. Secondary safety outcomes included anastomotic leak rate and acute kidney injury. Results: A total of 4164 patients were included, with a median age of 68 (i.q.r. 57\u201375) years (54\ub79 per cent men). Some 1153 (27\ub77 per cent) received NSAIDs on postoperative days 1\u20133, of whom 1061 (92\ub70 per cent) received non-selective cyclo-oxygenase inhibitors. After adjustment for baseline differences, the mean time to gastrointestinal recovery did not differ significantly between patients who received NSAIDs and those who did not (4\ub76 versus 4\ub78 days; hazard ratio 1\ub704, 95 per cent c.i. 0\ub796 to 1\ub712; P = 0\ub7360). There were no significant differences in anastomotic leak rate (5\ub74 versus 4\ub76 per cent; P = 0\ub7349) or acute kidney injury (14\ub73 versus 13\ub78 per cent; P = 0\ub7666) between the groups. Significantly fewer patients receiving NSAIDs required strong opioid analgesia (35\ub73 versus 56\ub77 per cent; P &lt; 0\ub7001). Conclusion: NSAIDs did not reduce the time for gastrointestinal recovery after colorectal surgery, but they were safe and associated with reduced postoperative opioid requirement

Safety of hospital discharge before return of bowel function after elective colorectal surgery

Background: Ileus is common after colorectal surgery and is associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications. Identifying features of normal bowel recovery and the appropriateness for hospital discharge is challenging. This study explored the safety of hospital discharge before the return of bowel function. Methods: A prospective, multicentre cohort study was undertaken across an international collaborative network. Adult patients undergoing elective colorectal resection between January and April 2018 were included. The main outcome of interest was readmission to hospital within 30 days of surgery. The impact of discharge timing according to the return of bowel function was explored using multivariable regression analysis. Other outcomes were postoperative complications within 30 days of surgery, measured using the Clavien\u2013Dindo classification system. Results: A total of 3288 patients were included in the analysis, of whom 301 (9\ub72 per cent) were discharged before the return of bowel function. The median duration of hospital stay for patients discharged before and after return of bowel function was 5 (i.q.r. 4\u20137) and 7 (6\u20138) days respectively (P &lt; 0\ub7001). There were no significant differences in rates of readmission between these groups (6\ub76 versus 8\ub70 per cent; P = 0\ub7499), and this remained the case after multivariable adjustment for baseline differences (odds ratio 0\ub790, 95 per cent c.i. 0\ub755 to 1\ub746; P = 0\ub7659). Rates of postoperative complications were also similar in those discharged before versus after return of bowel function (minor: 34\ub77 versus 39\ub75 per cent; major 3\ub73 versus 3\ub74 per cent; P = 0\ub7110). Conclusion: Discharge before return of bowel function after elective colorectal surgery appears to be safe in appropriately selected patients