Testing archaeological predictive models: a rough guide

Archaeological predictive modelling is an essential instrument for archaeological heritage management in the Netherlands. It is used to decide where to do archaeological survey in the case of development plans. However, very little attention is paid to testing the predictions made. Model quality is established by means of peer review, rather than by quantitative criteria. In this paper the main issues involved with predictive model testing are discussed. The potential of resampling methods for improved predictive model quality is investigated, and the problems associated with obtaining representative test data sets are highlighted

Exploring the dynamics of transport in the Dutch limes

Very little is known about local scale transport in the Roman period in the Netherlands, and therefore this paper aims to reconstruct and examine local transport networks through an integrative approach, using data and research from palaeogeography, physiology, archaeology and computational archaeological approaches. This study particularly focusses on the role of different modes of transport and the role of the natural environment. Firstly, a palaeogeographic reconstruction is presented encompassing both the natural and the cultural landscape. Transport networks for several modes are then reconstructed by calculating least cost paths that incorporate functions from physiological research. These networks are analysed using standard network analytical procedures. Interesting interpretations can be inferred from the results of these procedures, including some relating to the different characteristics of the transport modes but notably also the relative important role of stone- built settlements in the networks and the relative lack of control that the Roman forts have over the transport network

Reconstructing Human-Centered Interaction Networks of the Swifterbant Culture in the Dutch Wetlands:An Example from the ArchaeoEcology Project

In archaeology, palaeo-ecological studies are frequently used to support archaeological investigations, but linking and synthesizing datasets and concepts from ecology, ethnography, earth sciences, and archaeology has historically been rare. While advances in computational approaches and standards of data collection have enabled more collaborative approaches to understanding the past, these endeavors are only now beginning to pick up pace. Here, we propose a method to collect data of these assorted types, synthesize ecological and archaeological understanding, and move beyond subsistence-focused studies to those that incorporate multifaceted economies. We advocate for the use of ‘human-centered interaction networks’ as a tool to synthesize and better understand the role of culture, ecology, and environment in the long-term evolution of socio-ecological systems. We advance the study of human-centered interaction networks by presenting an archaeoecological (archaeological-ecological) perspective on the Neolithic transition of the Swifterbant culture in the northwestern Netherlands (approximately 4700–4000 BCE). We employed network science to better understand the relationships of animal and plant species to the uses that people made of them. The analysis of the Swifterbant system reveals a highly connected set of interactions among people, plants, and animals, as could be expected on the basis of the hypothesis of an ‘extended broadspectrum economy’. Importantly, this broad spectrum extends beyond the subsistence sphere

Estimating "land use heritage" to model changes in archaeological settlement patterns

International audience; In this paper, we present a method to calculate a "land use heritage map" based on the concept of "memory of landscape". Such a map can be seen as one variable among others influencing site location preference, and can be used as input for predictive models. The computed values equate to an index of long-term land use intensity. We will first discuss the method used for creating the land use heritage map, for which kernel density estimates are used.We will then present the use of these land use heritage maps for site location analysis in two study areas in SE France. Earlier analyses showed that the influence of the natural environment on settlement location choice in the Roman period is limited. In contrast, land use heritage seems to have a stronger influence on the placement of new settlements. We will discuss the implications for predictive modelling of settlement patterns

Linking theories, past practices, and archaeological remains of movement through ontological reasoning

The amount of information available to archaeologists has grown dramatically during the last ten years. The rapid acquisition of observational data and creation of digital data has played a significant role in this “information explosion”. In this paper, we propose new methods for knowledge creation in studies of movement, designed for the present data-rich research context. Using three case studies, we analyze how researchers have identified, conceptualized, and linked the material traces describing various movement processes in a given region. Then, we explain how we construct ontologies that enable us to explicitly relate material elements, identified in the observed landscape, to the knowledge or theory that explains their role and relationships within the movement process. Combining formal pathway systems and informal movement systems through these three case studies, we argue that these systems are not hierarchically integrated, but rather intertwined. We introduce a new heuristic tool, the “track graph”, to record observed material features in a neutral form which can be employed to reconstruct the trajectories of journeys which follow different movement logics. Finally, we illustrate how the breakdown of implicit conceptual references into explicit, logical chains of reasoning, describing basic entities and their relationships, allows the use of these constituent elements to reconstruct, analyze, and compare movement practices from the bottom up

Why are sustainable practices often elusive? The role of information flow in the management of networked human-environment interactions

Analyzing the spatial and temporal properties of information flow with a multi-century perspective could illuminate the sustainability of human resource-use strategies. This paper uses historical and archaeological datasets to assess how spatial, temporal, cognitive, and cultural limitations impact the generation and flow of information about ecosystems within past societies, and thus lead to tradeoffs in sustainable practices. While it is well understood that conflicting priorities can inhibit successful outcomes, case studies from Eastern Polynesia, the North Atlantic, and the American Southwest suggest that imperfect information can also be a major impediment to sustainability. We formally develop a conceptual model of Environmental Information Flow and Perception (EnIFPe) to examine the scale of information flow to a society and the quality of the information needed to promote sustainable coupled natural-human systems. In our case studies, we assess key aspects of information flow by focusing on food web relationships and nutrient flows in socio-ecological systems, as well as the life cycles, population dynamics, and seasonal rhythms of organisms, the patterns and timing of species’ migration, and the trajectories of human-induced environmental change. We argue that the spatial and temporal dimensions of human environments shape society's ability to wield information, while acknowledging that varied cultural factors also focus a society's ability to act on such information. Our analyses demonstrate the analytical importance of completed experiments from the past, and their utility for contemporary debates concerning managing imperfect information and addressing conflicting priorities in modern environmental management and resource use

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Hypertension Screening and Treatment in Adults with Hypertension in Rural Nigeria in the Context of a Health Insurance Program.

BACKGROUND: High blood pressure is a leading risk factor for death and disability in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We evaluated the costs and cost-effectiveness of hypertension care provided within the Kwara State Health Insurance (KSHI) program in rural Nigeria. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to assess the costs and cost-effectiveness of population-level hypertension screening and subsequent antihypertensive treatment for the population at-risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) within the KSHI program. The primary outcome was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted in the KSHI scenario compared to no access to hypertension care. We used setting-specific and empirically-collected data to inform the model. We defined two strategies to assess eligibility for antihypertensive treatment based on 1) presence of hypertension grade 1 and 10-year CVD risk of >20%, or grade 2 hypertension irrespective of 10-year CVD risk (hypertension and risk based strategy) and 2) presence of hypertension in combination with a CVD risk of >20% (risk based strategy). We generated 95% confidence intervals around the primary outcome through probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We conducted one-way sensitivity analyses across key model parameters and assessed the sensitivity of our results to the performance of the reference scenario. RESULTS: Screening and treatment for hypertension was potentially cost-effective but the results were sensitive to changes in underlying assumptions with a wide range of uncertainty. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the first and second strategy respectively ranged from US$1,406 to US$ 7,815 and US$732 to US$ 2,959 per DALY averted, depending on the assumptions on risk reduction after treatment and compared to no access to antihypertensive treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension care within a subsidized private health insurance program may be cost-effective in rural Nigeria and public-private partnerships such as the KSHI program may provide opportunities to finance CVD prevention care in SSA

Scaffolding geospatial epistemic discomfort: a pedagogical framework for cross-disciplinary landscape research

Current environmental crises call for an integrated knowledge of landscapes and their ecosystems in a broader sense. This article presents a pedagogical framework for cross-disciplinary landscape research at postgraduate level. The framework is grounded in the use of geospatial epistemic discomfort as a creative force to develop and enhance inquiry skills able to cross and merge disciplinary boundaries. Developed within the Erasmus+ KA2 project "CROSSLAND", the pedagogical framework is based on the scaffolding of epistemic discomfort through four key didactic elements: 1) cross-disciplinary group work and open-ended assignment, 2) in-field inquiry as pre-training on space-time, 3) replacement of traditional lectures by student-led seminars, 4) GIS labs centred on the exploration of cross-disciplinary portfolios of geospatial approaches and methods given as worked-out examples. Main results from the evaluation of the framework implementation in a Summer School show how learning cross-disciplinarity happened thanks to a scaffolding that allowed, first and foremost, the socialisation of different conceptualisations of space. While students felt at ease with geospatial epistemic discomfort, we can conclude that spatial cognitive processes are powerful in improving abilities beyond the spatial domain

Working Together with Conversational Agents: the Relationship of Perceived Cooperation with Service Performance Evaluations

Conversational agents are gradually being deployed by organizations in service settings to communicate with and solve problems together with consumers. The current study investigates how consumers’ perceptions of cooperation with conversational agents in a service context are associated with their perceptions about agents’ anthropomorphism, social presence, the quality of the information provided by an agent, and the agent service performance. An online experiment was conducted in which participants performed a service-oriented task with the assistance of conversational agents developed specifically for the study and evaluated the performance and attributes of the agents. The results suggest a direct positive link between perceiving a conversational agent as cooperative and perceiving it to be more anthropomorphic, with higher levels of social presence and providing better information quality. Moreover, the results also show that the link between perceiving an agent as cooperative and the agent’s service performance is mediated by perceptions of the agent’s anthropomorphic cues and the quality of the information provided by the agent