An Altered Derivatives Marketplace: Clearing Swaps Under Dodd-Frank

Though over a year has passed, the impact of the Dodd Frank Act remains unclear. This Note examines the provisions of the Act that relate to swap transactions within the context of pre-reform and postreform markets. In order to reduce the uncertainties inherent in unregulated swap transactions, the Act employs a comprehensive framework, which includes mandatory clearing through derivative clearing organizations, extensive reporting requirements, margin requirements, and position limits. This Note argues that, in doing so, the Dodd Frank Act addresses the fundamental failures of pre-reform derivative markets. However, the importance of the role for derivative clearing organizations under this framework creates a risk that these organizations will become systemically significant, mirroring problems with under-capitalized and over-exposed financial institutions in the downturn

A high-resolution and harmonized model approach for reconstructing and analysing historic land changes in Europe

Human-induced land use changes are nowadays the second largest contributor to atmospheric carbon dioxide after fossil fuel combustion. Existing historic land change reconstructions on the European scale do not sufficiently meet the requirements of greenhouse gas (GHG) and cli- mate assessments, due to insufficient spatial and thematic detail and the consideration of various land change types. This paper investigates if the combination of different data sources, more detailed modelling techniques, and the inte- gration of land conversion types allow us to create accu- rate, high-resolution historic land change data for Europe suited for the needs of GHG and climate assessments. We validated our reconstruction with historic aerial photographs from 1950 and 1990 for 73 sample sites across Europe and compared it with other land reconstructions like Klein Gold- ewijk et al. (2010, 2011), Ramankutty and Foley (1999), Pon- gratz et al. (2008) and Hurtt et al. (2006). The results indicate that almost 700 000km2 (15.5%) of land cover in Europe has changed over the period 1950–2010, an area similar to France. In Southern Europe the relative amount was almost 3.5% higher than average (19 %). Based on the results the specific types of conversion, hot-spots of change and their relation to political decisions and socio-economic transitions were studied. The analysis indicates that the main drivers of land change over the studied period were urbanization, the reforestation program resulting from the timber shortage af- ter the Second World War, the fall of the Iron Curtain, the Common Agricultural Policy and accompanying afforesta- tion actions of the EU. Compared to existing land cover re- constructions, the new method considers the harmonization of different datasets by achieving a high spatial resolution and regional detail with a full coverage of different land cat- egories. These characteristics allow the data to be used to support and improve ongoing GHG inventories and climate research

Exploring the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use with special reference to China

Land-use and land-cover change have large impacts on our natural environment. Changes in our natural environment directly influence our living conditions through the possibilities that we have to obtain a safe food in a healthy environment, but also in aesthetic ways through our perception of landscapes and diversity. To avoid unfavorable consequences of land-use changes, systematic approaches for land-use intervention are developed for policy makers. Systematic intervention in the dynamics of land-use systems is impossible without a proper understanding of the driving factors in these systems and their behavior.The general objective of this thesis is to present a set of methodologies to explore the spatial and temporal dynamics of land-use systems at the regional level. These methods provide insight into the spatial variability of land use, indicate which (proximate) factors determine the spatial distribution of land use and identify potential, near-future 'hot-spots' of land-use change. The identification of 'hot-spots' of land-use change, i.e., areas that are expected to face high rates of land-use change, is essential to focus follow-up in-depth research and policy measures to address the appropriate issues and geographical locations.Case-studies for the application of the developed methodologies are the countries of China and Ecuador and the Island of Java in Indonesia. Most attention in this thesis is given to the developments in China, whereas the country of Ecuador is used for model development and sensitivity analysis while the case of Java allows for a validation of the model performance. China and the island of Java face large pressures on agricultural land resources due to urban and industrial expansion and limited capacities for agricultural expansion. At the same time, economic growth and urbanization result in an increasing demand for agricultural products. In Ecuador agricultural expansion is still the major land-use change process.The first step in studying land-use change is the quantification of the relations between land use and its driving factors. These relations are derived from a spatial analysis of actual land-use patterns, which reflect the results of historic land-use changes. Correlation and regression analysis are used to identify the most important explanatory variables of the land-use pattern from a large set of biophysical and socio-economic variables that are generally considered to be of potential importance for the distribution of land use. An integrated set of biophysical and socio-economic variables was found to best describe the spatial distribution of the different land-use types. Specific attention is given to the influence of the scale of analysis on the relations between the distribution of land-use and the biophysical and socio-economic explanatory variables. Both the resolution of the data and the extent of the study area have a major impact on the derived relations. Relations obtained at a certain scale of analysis may therefore not be directly applied at other scales or in other areas.The relations between the land-use distribution and the derived sets of biophysical and socio-economic explanatory variables are used to parameterize a land-use change model. This land-use change model, the CLUE modeling framework (the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects), allocates changes in demand for different land-use types at the national level to individual grid cells. Changes in the relative coverage of land-use types in the different grid-cells are calculated in an iterative procedure using the earlier established spatial relations after a change in one of the explanatory variables of the land-use pattern or a change in competitive advantage for a land-use type. Changes in explanatory variables include changes in population density, labor force or urbanization, while changes in competitive advantage originate from changes in demand at the national level. For every year changes are calculated until the allocated changes match the demand at the national level for the different land-use types. For every grid-cell, allocation is constrained by the total land area available in the grid cell, so that competition between the land-use types is explicitly taken into account. A multi-scale approach is followed to account for the scale dependencies of the relations between the land-use pattern and its explanatory variables. This approach provides also a balance between bottom-up effects, resulting from local conditions and top-down effects as a result of changes at national and regional scales. An analysis of the behavior and sensitivity of the model is made for the country of Ecuador. Different scenarios are tested to illustrate the realistic simulation of interconnectivity between regions and bottom-up / top-down interactions in land-use change.The application of the CLUE model for China has a minimum spatial resolution of 32x32 km. The most important land-use conversions in China, caused by urbanization, desertification and afforestation, are simulated for a scenario over the period 1990-2010. This scenario is based upon expected developments in demand for land-use types described in literature. The spatially explicit results allow an analysis of the consequences of a decrease in cultivated area and related production capacity. A preliminary analysis shows that the average production capacity of the lost arable lands is somewhat less than the average production capacity of all agricultural lands together. Regional differences are, however, large.Additionally, a scenario of shifts in the relative importance of different agricultural crops is simulated. The results indicate regions where larger shares of high value crops within the cropping system are to be expected.Large changes are expected in China's livestock sector as a consequence of increasing demands for animal products. Based upon the CLUE modeling framework a livestock module was developed that allows the exploration of changes in the spatial distribution of livestock production systems. The livestock module is directly linked to the simulations of land-use change so that changes in land cover directly influence livestock distributions. Two scenarios are evaluated: a baseline scenario and a scenario that assumes improved management of grasslands to stimulate livestock production in the pastoral regions. For both scenarios most increases in livestock numbers are expected in China's agricultural region. Poor transportation systems and vast distances, causing low prices and high costs of inputs, are the main constraints for more intensive use of the pastoral region.A validation of model performance was made for the island of Java based upon historic data. Simulations from 1979 to 1994 indicated that the model could adequately simulate the pattern of land-use change. The performance on a cell-to-cell basis was reasonable whearas the overall pattern of change was well simulated. Additionally a scenario of land-use change between 1994 and 2010 was simulated assuming a continuation of urbanization on Java. The results identified Java's fertile lowlands as areas where most intensive land-use changes are expected to take place.Apart from changes in the land area of different land-use types also the land-use intensity is subject to changes. Especially when opportunities for agricultural expansion are limited, land intensification is an option to increase agricultural production. A separate analysis was made of the different components of the land-use system that influence the agricultural production capacity of China. Included are changes in agricultural area, multiple cropping index, input use, technical efficiency and technological change. Research methodologies to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of these land-use system components are all based on semi-empirical analyses of spatial variability in relation to biophysical and socio-economical explanatory variables. The results indicate that different processes and patterns of land-use change are found in various parts of the country. Inefficiencies in the use of agricultural inputs and relatively low input-use intensities, especially in some of the rural, less endowed, western regions, indicate that in these regions of China increases in grain yield are well possible. Awareness of the importance of spatial variability in agricultural development, rather than analyzing developments at the national level only, will help policy makers and scientists to focus future agricultural development programs on the appropriate areas. In-depth studies of the causes of retarded agricultural development, which are still needed as a follow-up to the studies reported here, will help to design proper measures for specific regions.The introduced and applied methodologies provide an essential link between existing research tools needed for adequate land-use negotiations. Projectory studies at the national level that identify land-use change problems or extrapolate trends are used as direct inputs to formulate scenarios for the CLUE simulations. Land-use change trajectories for different scenario conditions are useful inputs for research aiming at the design of alternative land-use configurations or intensities. Policy measures can be derived from scenario conditions resulting in trajectories leading into the direction of desired land-use configurations, to be designed by land-use planners or with the help of optimization models. Furthermore, a confrontation of desired land-use configurations with the simulated land-use trajectories of the CLUE model can lead to a more realistic definition of the objectives and constraints of land-use planning activities.www.gis.wau.nl/~landuse1/papers.html</p

Sexual dimorphism in adverse pregnancy outcomes - A retrospective Australian population study 1981-2011

Published: July 11, 2016Objectives: Sexual inequality starts in utero. The contribution of biological sex to the developmental origins of health and disease is increasingly recognized. The aim of this study was to assess and interpret sexual dimorphisms for three major adverse pregnancy outcomes which affect the health of the neonate, child and potentially adult. Methods: Retrospective population-based study of 574,358 South Australian singleton live births during 1981–2011. The incidence of three major adverse pregnancy outcomes [preterm birth (PTB), pregnancy induced hypertensive disorders (PIHD) and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM)] in relation to fetal sex was compared according to traditional and fetus-at-risk (FAR) approaches. Results: The traditional approach showed male predominance for PTB [20–24 weeks: Relative Risk (RR) M/F 1.351, 95%-CI 1.274–1.445], spontaneous PTB [25–29 weeks: RR M/F 1.118, 95%-CI 1.044–1.197%], GDM [RR M/F 1.042, 95%-CI 1.011–1.074], overall PIHD [RR M/F 1.053, 95%-CI 1.034–1.072] and PIHD with term birth [RR M/F 1.074, 95%-CI 1.044–1.105]. The FAR approach showed that males were at increased risk for PTB [20–24 weeks: RR M/F 1.273, 95%-CI 1.087–1.490], for spontaneous PTB [25–29 weeks: RR M/F 1.269, 95%-CI 1.143–1.410] and PIHD with term birth [RR M/F 1.074, 95%-CI 1.044–1.105%]. The traditional approach demonstrated female predominance for iatrogenic PTB [25–29 weeks: RR M/F 0.857, 95%-CI 0.780–0.941] and PIHD associated with PTB [25–29 weeks: RR M/F 0.686, 95%-CI 0.581–0.811]. The FAR approach showed that females were at increased risk for PIHD with PTB [25–29 weeks: RR M/F 0.779, 95%-CI 0.648–0.937]. Conclusions: This study confirms the presence of sexual dimorphisms and presents a coherent framework based on two analytical approaches to assess and interpret the sexual dimorphisms for major adverse pregnancy outcomes. The mechanisms by which these occur remain elusive, but sex differences in placental gene expression and function are likely to play a key role. Further research on sex differences in placental function and maternal adaptation to pregnancy is required to delineate the causal molecular mechanisms in sex-specific pregnancy outcome. Identifying these mechanisms may inform fetal sex specific tailored antenatal and neonatal care.Petra E. Verburg, Graeme Tucker, Wendy Scheil, Jan Jaap H. M. Erwich, Gus A. Dekker, Claire Trelford Robert

Un modèle intégré pour explorer les trajectoires d’utilisation de l’espace

International audienceDynamic spatial models are important tools for the study of complex systems like environmental systems. This paper presents an integrated model that has been designed to explore land use trajectories in a small region around Maroua, located in the far north of Cameroon. The model simulates competition between land use types taking into account a set of biophysical, socio-demographic and geo-economics driving factors. The model includes three modules. The dynamic simulation module combines results of the spatial analysis and prediction modules. Simulation results for each scenario can help to identify where changes occur. The model developed constitutes an efficient knowledge support system for exploratory research and land use planning.Les modèles spatiaux dynamiques sont des outils de très grande importance pour l'étude des systèmes complexes comme les systèmes environnementaux. De plus, une approche intégrée est indispensable lorsqu'on veut avoir une compréhension plus complète du comportement de ces systèmes. Cet article décrit les bases d'un modèle intégré développé pour explorer les trajectoires d'utilisation de l'espace dans la région autour de Maroua, à l'Extrême Nord du Cameroun. Le modèle simule la compétition entre différentes catégories d'utilisation de l'espace en prenant en compte l'influence d'un ensemble de facteurs biophysiques, sociodémographiques et géoéconomiques. On distingue trois principaux modules. Le module de simulation dynamique combine les résultats des modules d'analyse spatiale et de prédiction. La calibration et la validation du modèle ont été effectuées pour la période entre 1987 et 1999, et la simulation des changements entre 1999 et 2010. Trois scénarios ont été formulés en s'appuyant sur l'analyse des tendances observées et les hypothèses de transition du système d'utilisation de l'espace. Les principales dynamiques observées concernent le développement de la culture maraîchère et l'extension de la culture du sorgho de contre saison qui induisent une compétition plus importante et des conflits. Les résultats de simulation pour chaque scénario permettent d'identifier des zones prioritaires pour toute intervention allant dans le sens de l'intensification ou d'une gestion intégrée et plus durable de l'espace. Le modèle développé constitue ainsi un outil de recherche exploratoire et un support de connaissances utilisable pour la planification de l'utilisation de l'espace. Une utilisation est envisageable pour initier toute concertation ou négociation entre les acteurs concernés par la gestion de l'espace

Monitoring and modelling landscape dynamics

International audienceChanges in land cover and land use are among the most pervasive and important sources of recent alterations of the Earth's land surface.This special issue also presents new directions in modelling landscape dynamics. Agent-based models have primarily been used to simulate local land use and land cover changes processes with a focus on decision making (Le 2008; Matthews et al. 2007; Parker et al. 2003; Bousquet and Le Page 2001)

Neuromuscular responses to mild-muscle damaging eccentric exercise in a low glycogen state.

The aim of this study was to examine the effect of low muscle glycogen on the neuromuscular responses to maximal eccentric contractions. Fourteen healthy men (22±3years) performed single-leg cycling (20min at ∼75% maximal oxygen uptake (V̇O2 max); eight 90 s sprints at a 1:1 work-to-rest ratio (5% decrements from 90% to 55% V̇O2 max until exhaustion) the evening before 100 eccentric (1.57rads(-1)) with reduced (RED) and normal glycogen (NORM). Neuromuscular responses were measured during and up to 48h after with maximal voluntary and involuntary (twitch, 20Hz and 50Hz) isometric contractions. During eccentric contractions, peak torque decreased (RED: -16.1±2.5%; NORM: -6.2±5.1%) and EMG frequency increased according to muscle length. EMG activity decreased for RED only. After eccentric contractions, maximal isometric force was reduced up to 24h for NORM (-13.5±5.8%) and 48h for RED (-7.4±10.9%). Twelve hours after eccentric contractions, twitch force and the 20:50Hz ratio were decreased for RED but not for NORM. Immediate involuntary with prolonged voluntary force loss suggests that reduced glycogen is associated with increased susceptibility to mild muscle-damaging eccentric exercise with contributions of peripheral and central mechanisms to be different during recovery