Towards a low carbon economy in the Amazon: the role of land-use policies

Climate change, rising oil prices and the global financial crisis has put sustainability and ‘green growth’ of the economy on the political agenda. While the transition towards a “low carbon” economy in developed countries like in the European Union should mainly be found in renewable energy production, developing countries like Brazil face with high land use emissions which will further rise in the coming decades without proper policy instruments. Deforestation and cattle production are the main sources of land use emissions in Brazil and we expect that these emissions will further rise with liberalisation of agricultural trade. A transition towards a “low carbon” economy in Brazil thus calls for appropriate, and effective land-use policies. Agricultural intensification on one hand can meet the world demand for soy and beef. For example we calculate that increasing the meat content of cattle can reduce emissions from deforestation up to 30%, but intensification may also accelerate further deforestation of Cerrado and Amazon forests. In order to avoid such additional deforestation, large areas of degraded lands have to be taken back into production, which requires large agricultural investments. In addition, (new) economic instruments, monitoring, law enforcement and appropriate conservation policies are also needed to halt further deforestation and biodiversity loss. The recently amended change of the Forest Code policy, for example, is expected to accelerate deforestation further, thus making more difficult to reach mitigation targets for the Brazilian State

Future governance options for large-scale land acquisition in Cambodia:Impacts on tree cover and tiger landscapes

This paper investigates how large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) can be governed to avoid underuse and thereby spare room for other land claims, specifically nature conservation. LSLA underuse occurs when land in LSLAs is not converted to its intended use. Taking Cambodia as a case, we map converted and unconverted areas within LSLAs using remote sensing. We develop three scenarios of alternative LSLA policies until 2040, and use a land system change model to evaluate how governing the underuse of LSLAs affects overall land use. Specifically, we evaluate the impact of these policies on future tree cover, the size and spatial integrity of natural areas, and the potential these natural areas can offer to meet the conservation target of a successful tiger reintroduction. In 2015, only 32% of LSLA area was converted. Simulations suggest that both interventionist (reclaim unconverted areas) and preventive (avoid non-conversion) policies dramatically reduce underuse. Interventionist policies perform best in limiting tree cover loss and in preserving natural areas, but preventive measures lead to significantly less fragmentation. Noninterventionist policies (no enforced policies) make tiger reintroduction in the Eastern Plains impossible. Preventive policies with well-enforced protected areas succeed in creating the largest potential for tiger reintroduction. Our results suggest that Cambodia can reconcile LSLAs with tiger reintroduction in the Eastern Plains only when using preventive land use policies. In the absence of such policies, tiger survival in the Eastern Plains is unlikely and only the Cardamom or Virachey forest may offer such potential

Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from European Geosciences Union (EGU) via the DOI in this record.Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) represents one of the key drivers of global environmental change. However, the processes and drivers of anthropogenic land-use activity are still overly simplistically implemented in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The published results of these models are used in major assessments of processes and impacts of global environmental change, such as the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Fully coupled models of climate, land use and biogeochemical cycles to explore land use-climate interactions across spatial scales are currently not available. Instead, information on land use is provided as exogenous data from the land-use change modules of integrated assessment models (IAMs) to TBMs. In this article, we discuss, based on literature review and illustrative analysis of empirical and modeled LULCC data, three major challenges of this current LULCC representation and their implications for land use-climate interaction studies: (I) provision of consistent, harmonized, land-use time series spanning from historical reconstructions to future projections while accounting for uncertainties associated with different land-use modeling approaches, (II) accounting for sub-grid processes and bidirectional changes (gross changes) across spatial scales, and (III) the allocation strategy of independent land-use data at the grid cell level in TBMs. We discuss the factors that hamper the development of improved land-use representation, which sufficiently accounts for uncertainties in the land-use modeling process. We propose that LULCC data-provider and user communities should engage in the joint development and evaluation of enhanced LULCC time series, which account for the diversity of LULCC modeling and increasingly include empirically based information about sub-grid processes and land-use transition trajectories, to improve the representation of land use in TBMs. Moreover, we suggest concentrating on the development of integrated modeling frameworks that may provide further understanding of possible land-climate-society feedbacks.The research in this paper has been supported by the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme project LUC4C (Grant No. 603542), ERC grant GLOLAND (No. 311819) and BiodivERsA project TALE (No. 832.14.006) funded by the Dutch National Science Foundation (NWO). This research contributes to the Global Land Project (www.globallandproject.org). This is paper number 26 of the Birmingham Institute of Forest Research

Biophysical suitability, economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R 2 = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R 2 = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage

Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

International audienceOver the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directed influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past 60 years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identiy areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trands and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of Pyrenan valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessements of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions