Prediction Model for 30-day Outcomes Among Emergency Department Patients with Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Introduction: There are currently no robust tools available for risk stratification of emergency department (ED) patients with lower gastrointestinal bleed (LGIB). Our aim was to identify risk factors and develop a preliminary model to predict 30-day serious adverse events among ED LGIB patients.Methods: We conducted a health records review including adult ED patients with acute LGIB. We used a composite outcome of 30-day all-cause death, recurrent LGIB, need for intervention to control the bleeding, and severe adverse events resulting in intensive care unit admission. One researcher collected data for variables and a second researcher independently collected 10% of the variables for inter-observer reliability. We used backward multivariable logistic regression analysis and SELECTION=SCORE option to create a preliminary risk-stratification tool. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of the final model.Results: Of 372 patients, 48 experienced an adverse outcome. We found that age ≥75 years, hemoglobin ≤100 g/L, international normalized ratio ≥2.0, ongoing bleed in the ED, and a medical history of colorectal polyps were statistically significant predictors in the multivariable regression analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) for the model was 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.89). We developed a scoring system based on the logistic regression model and found a sensitivity 0.96 (0.90-1.00) and specificity 0.53 (0.48-0.59) for a cut-off score of 1.Conclusion: This model showed good ability to differentiate patients with and without serious outcomes as evidenced by the high AUC and sensitivity. The results of this study could be used in the prospective derivation of a clinical decision tool

Syncope Time Frames for Adverse Events after Emergency Department Presentation: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis

Background and Objectives: Knowledge of the incidence and time frames of the adverse events of patients presenting syncope at the ED is essential for developing effective management strategies. The aim of the present study was to perform a meta-analysis of the incidence and time frames of adverse events of syncope patients. Materials and Methods: We combined individual patients’ data from prospective observational studies including adult patients who presented syncope at the ED. We assessed the pooled rate of adverse events at 24 h, 72 h, 7–10 days, 1 month and 1 year after ED evaluation. Results: We included nine studies that enrolled 12,269 patients. The mean age varied between 53 and 73 years, with 42% to 57% females. The pooled rate of adverse events was 5.1% (95% CI 3.4% to 7.7%) at 24 h, 7.0% (95% CI 4.9% to 9.9%) at 72 h, 8.4% (95% CI 6.2% to 11.3%) at 7–10 days, 10.3% (95% CI 7.8% to 13.3%) at 1 month and 21.3% (95% CI 15.8% to 28.0%) at 1 year. The pooled death rate was 0.2% (95% CI 0.1% to 0.5%) at 24 h, 0.3% (95% CI 0.1% to 0.7%) at 72 h, 0.5% (95% CI 0.3% to 0.9%) at 7–10 days, 1% (95% CI 0.6% to 1.7%) at 1 month and 5.9% (95% CI 4.5% to 7.7%) at 1 year. The most common adverse event was arrhythmia, for which its rate was 3.1% (95% CI 2.0% to 4.9%) at 24 h, 4.8% (95% CI 3.5% to 6.7%) at 72 h, 5.8% (95% CI 4.2% to 7.9%) at 7–10 days, 6.9% (95% CI 5.3% to 9.1%) at 1 month and 9.9% (95% CI 5.5% to 17) at 1 year. Ventricular arrhythmia was rare. Conclusions: The risk of death or life-threatening adverse event is rare in patients presenting syncope at the ED. The most common adverse events are brady and supraventricular arrhythmias, which occur during the first 3 days. Prolonged ECG monitoring in the ED in a short stay unit with ECG monitoring facilities may, therefore, be beneficial

Priorities for Emergency Department Syncope Research

Study objectives There is limited evidence to guide the emergency department (ED) evaluation and management of syncope. The First International Workshop on Syncope Risk Stratification in the Emergency Department identified key research questions and methodological standards essential to advancing the science of ED-based syncope research. Methods We recruited a multinational panel of syncope experts. A preconference survey identified research priorities, which were refined during and after the conference through an iterative review process. Results There were 31 participants from 7 countries who represented 10 clinical and methodological specialties. High-priority research recommendations were organized around a conceptual model of ED decisionmaking for syncope, and they address definition, cohort selection, risk stratification, and management. Conclusion We convened a multispecialty group of syncope experts to identify the most pressing knowledge gaps and defined a high-priority research agenda to improve the care of patients with syncope in the ED

Assay precision and risk of misclassification at rule-out cut-offs for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin

Clinical trials and guidelines support the use of very low high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) results to rule-out a myocardial infarction (MI) ( 1) ). The International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine Committee on Clinical Applications of Cardiac Biomarkers committee, through a modeling approach, suggests assays need to have a lower limit near 3 ng/L and an analytical variation of 10% below 7 ng/L if these low values are to perform consistently in practice ( 2) ). Our objectives for the present study were to assess: i) if any type of instrument or individual instrument could achieve a coefficient of variation (CV) of ≤10% at very low hs-cTn cut-offs (i.e., targets) recommended in clinical pathways; ii) the frequency of results at the hs-cTn target, above the target and below the target, with the latter group representing potential misclassification to the low risk group where the target level would in the intermediate risk range.<br/

Retrospective validation of the San Francisco Syncope Rule for prediction of short-term serious outcomes in adult syncope patients

Syncope is defined as sudden transient loss of consciousness with spontaneous, complete recovery. Syncope is usually associated with loss/of postural tone leading to falling. Of the various risk stratification instruments available, the San Francisco Syncope Rule is the only one that has been prospectively derived and validated, included all serious outcomes, focuses on short-term outcomes rather than long-term outcomes and adhered to the accepted guidelines for developing a clinical decision rule. This thesis is on retrospective validation of the San Francisco Syncope rule. The study will also attempt to refine the rule if needed and collect basic epidemiological characteristics of syncope patients presenting to a tertiary care emergency department. The objectives of this study were: (1) To assess the performance of the San Francisco Syncope Rule when applied retrospectively to Canadian syncope patients. (2) To assess the potential, impact on resource utilization (in the form of admission rates) if the San Francisco Syncope Rule was applied in Canada. (3) To determine, if needed, the potential for refining the San Francisco Syncope Rule to improve its performance. (4) To describe the basic epidemiological characteristics of emergency department syncope visits to a tertiary care emergency department. The main outcome of the study was to evaluate the performance characteristics of the San Francisco Syncope Rule in its ability to predict serious outcomes within 30 days. The outcome was a composite serious outcome that included anyone of the serious outcomes: death, myocardial infarction, arrhythmia, pulmonary embolism, stroke, subarachnoid hemorrhage, significant bleeding anywhere, any procedural intervention to treat a related cause of syncope, any condition causing/likely to cause a return emergency visit or hospitalization for a related event within 30 days. 505 patient visits were included in the study. 49 (9.7%) of these visits were associated with serious outcomes with 22 (44.9%) occurring in the emergency department and 27 (55.1%) occurring outside the emergency department either during their inpatient stay or outside the hospital. The sensitivity and specificity of the San Francisco Syncope Rule for all serious outcomes was 90% (95% CI 78, 95) and 40% (95% CI 39, 41), for the serious outcomes occurring after discharge from the emergency department was 96% (95% CI 82, 99) and 40% (95% CI 39, 40). 12.3% of the study patients were admitted to the hospital. The rule would have required 63% of the study patients to be admitted. Exploration for refining the rule yielded a preliminary decision rule by recursive partitioning with 3 variables: (1) Age &ge; 65 years, (2) Lowest emergency department systolic blood pressure &lt; 80 mm of Hg and (3) abnormal electrocardiogram [defined as non-sinus rhythm (supraventricular tachycardia, multifocal atrial tachycardia, atrial flutter, atrial fibrillation, junctional rhythm, idioventricular rhythm), significant atrioventricular block (second and third degree), bifasicular block, first degree atrioventricular block in the presence of left or right bundle branch block and cardiac monitor abnormalities]. This preliminary rule had a sensitivity 100% ((95% CI 93, 100) and 53% (95% CI 52, 53) for predicting serious outcomes within 30 days of the emergency visit for syncope. Using this new rule will require 52% of the patients to be admitted to the hospital. Syncope and pre-syncope were common complaints presenting to the emergency department accounting for I% of all emergency visits. The San Francisco Syncope Rule did not perform as well as previously reported. It is feasible to develop a better clinical decision rule based on the San Francisco Syncope Rule to improve the sensitivity and specificity. It also possible to prospectively clarify and improve the performance the 'abnormal electrocardiogram' variable. (Abstract shortened by UMI.

Prediction Model for 30-day Outcomes Among Emergency Department Patients with Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Introduction: There are currently no robust tools available for risk stratification of emergency department (ED) patients with lower gastrointestinal bleed (LGIB). Our aim was to identify risk factors and develop a preliminary model to predict 30-day serious adverse events among ED LGIB patients.Methods: We conducted a health records review including adult ED patients with acute LGIB. We used a composite outcome of 30-day all-cause death, recurrent LGIB, need for intervention to control the bleeding, and severe adverse events resulting in intensive care unit admission. One researcher collected data for variables and a second researcher independently collected 10% of the variables for inter-observer reliability. We used backward multivariable logistic regression analysis and SELECTION=SCORE option to create a preliminary risk-stratification tool. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of the final model.Results: Of 372 patients, 48 experienced an adverse outcome. We found that age ≥75 years, hemoglobin ≤100 g/L, international normalized ratio ≥2.0, ongoing bleed in the ED, and a medical history of colorectal polyps were statistically significant predictors in the multivariable regression analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) for the model was 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.89). We developed a scoring system based on the logistic regression model and found a sensitivity 0.96 (0.90-1.00) and specificity 0.53 (0.48-0.59) for a cut-off score of 1.Conclusion: This model showed good ability to differentiate patients with and without serious outcomes as evidenced by the high AUC and sensitivity. The results of this study could be used in the prospective derivation of a clinical decision tool

Role of Creatine Kinase in the Troponin Era: A Systematic Review

Introduction: The diagnosis of non-ST-elevated myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) depends on a combination of history, electrocardiogram, and cardiac biomarkers. The most sensitive and specific biomarkers for cardiac injury are the troponin assays. Many hospitals continue to automatically order less sensitive and less specific biomarkers such as creatine kinase (CK) alongside cardiac troponin (cTn) for workup of patients with chest pain. The objective of this systematic review was to identify whether CK testing is useful in the workup of patients with NSTEMI symptoms. Methods: We undertook a systematic review to ascertain whether CK ordered as part of the workup for NSTEMI was useful in screening patients with cardiac chest pain. The MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched from January 1995–September 2020. Additional papers were added after consultation with experts. We screened a total of 2,865 papers, of which eight were included in the final analysis. These papers all compared CK and cTn for NSTEMI diagnosis.&nbsp; Results: In each of the eight papers included in the analysis, cTn showed a greater sensitivity and specificity than CK in the diagnosis of NSTEMI. Furthermore, none of the articles published reliable evidence that CK is useful in NSTEMI diagnosis when troponin was negative.&nbsp; Conclusion: There is no evidence to continue to use CK as part of the workup of NSTEMI acute coronary syndrome in undifferentiated chest pain patients. We conclude that CK should not be used to screen patients presenting to the emergency department with chest pain.&nbsp

Use of the emergency department by refugees under the Interim Federal Health Program: A health records review.

INTRODUCTION:In June 2012, the federal government made cuts to the Interim Federal Health (IFH) Program that reduced or eliminated health insurance for refugee claimants in Canada. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of the cuts on emergency department (ED) use among patients claiming IFH benefits. METHODS:We conducted a health records review at two tertiary care EDs in Ottawa. We reviewed all ED visits where an IFH claim was made at triage, for 18 months before and 18 months after the changes to the program on June 30, 2012 (2011-2013). Claims made before and after the cuts were compared in terms of basic demographics, chief presenting complaints, acuity, diagnosis, presence of primary care, and financial status of the claim. Bivariate or multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to yield odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS:There were a total of 612 IFH claims made in the ED from 2011-2013. The demographic characteristics, acuity of presentation and discharge diagnoses were similar during both the before and after periods. Overall, 28.6% fewer claims were made under the IFH program after the cuts. Of the claims made, significantly more were rejected after the cuts than before (13.7% after vs. 3.9% before, adjusted OR 4.28, 95% CI: 2.18-8.40; p<0.05). The majority (75.0%) of rejected claims have not been paid by patients. Fewer patients after the cuts indicated that they had a family physician (20.4% after vs. 30% before, unadjusted OR 1.67, 95% CI: 1.14-2.44; p<0.05) yet a higher proportion of patients without a family physician were still advised to follow up with their family doctor during the after period (67.2% after vs. 41.8% before, unadjusted OR 2.85, 95% CI: 1.45-5.62; p<0.05). CONCLUSION:A higher proportion of both rejected and subsequently unpaid claims after the IFH cuts in June 2012, as demonstrated in the logistic regression analysis in this health records review, represents a potential barrier to emergency medical care, as well as a new financial burden to be shouldered by patients and hospitals. A reduction in IFH claims in the ED and a reduction in the number of patients with access to a family physician also suggests inadequate primary care for this population, yet this was not reflected in the follow-up advice offered by ED physicians to patients