Demand-Side Food Policies for Public and Planetary Health

Background: The current food system has major consequences for the environment and for human health. Alignment of the food policy areas of mitigating climate change and public health will ensure coherent and effective policy interventions for sustaining human health and the environment. Thispaperexploresliteratureondemand-sidepoliciesthataimtoreduceconsumptionof animal-basedfoods,increaseplant-basedfoods,andreduceoverconsumption. Methods:Wesearched for publications, published between January 2000 and December 2019, considering the above policy domains. Articles were distinguished for type of policy instrument, for topic via keywords and examples were given. Results: The majority of demand-side policies focus on preventing overweight and obesity, using all types of policy instruments including more forceful market-based policies. Hardly any examples of public policies explicitly aiming to lower animal-based foods consumption were found. Policies combining health and sustainability objectives are few and mainly of the information type. Discussion: Moving towards environmentally sustainable and healthy diets is challenging as the implemented demand-side policies focus largely on human health, and not yet on environmental outcomes, or on win-wins. Policies targeting foods from the health perspective can contribute to lower environmental impacts, by indicating suitable animal-based food replacers, and aiming at avoiding overconsumption of energy dense-nutrient poor foods. Preferred policies include a variety of instruments, including strong measures. Conclusions: Working solutions are available to ensure coherent and effective demand side food policies aligning public health and environmental aims. Implementation of aligned and effective policy packages is urgent and needed.© 2020 by the authorspublishedVersio

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/

Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean–atmosphere coupling

A poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm tracks in response to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing has been diagnosed in climate model simulations1, 2. Explanations of this effect have focused on atmospheric dynamics3, 4, 5, 6, 7. However, in contrast to storm tracks in other regions, the North Atlantic storm track responds by strengthening and extending farther east, in particular on its southern flank8. These adjustments are associated with an intensification and extension of the eddy-driven jet towards western Europe9 and are expected to have considerable societal impacts related to a rise in storminess in Europe10, 11, 12. Here, we apply a regression analysis to an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations to show that the coupling between ocean and atmosphere shapes the distinct storm-track response to greenhouse-gas forcing in the North Atlantic region. In the ensemble of simulations we analyse, at least half of the differences between the storm-track responses of different models are associated with uncertainties in ocean circulation changes. We compare the fully coupled simulations with both the associated slab model simulations and an ocean-forced experiment with one climate model to establish causality. We conclude that uncertainties in the response of the North Atlantic storm track to anthropogenic emissions could be reduced through tighter constraints on the future ocean circulation

Online detection and quantification of epidemics

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Time series data are increasingly available in health care, especially for the purpose of disease surveillance. The analysis of such data has long used periodic regression models to detect outbreaks and estimate epidemic burdens. However, implementation of the method may be difficult due to lack of statistical expertise. No dedicated tool is available to perform and guide analyses.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We developed an online computer application allowing analysis of epidemiologic time series. The system is available online at <url>http://www.u707.jussieu.fr/periodic_regression/</url>. The data is assumed to consist of a periodic baseline level and irregularly occurring epidemics. The program allows estimating the periodic baseline level and associated upper forecast limit. The latter defines a threshold for epidemic detection. The burden of an epidemic is defined as the cumulated signal in excess of the baseline estimate. The user is guided through the necessary choices for analysis. We illustrate the usage of the online epidemic analysis tool with two examples: the retrospective detection and quantification of excess pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality, and the prospective surveillance of gastrointestinal disease (diarrhoea).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The online application allows easy detection of special events in an epidemiologic time series and quantification of excess mortality/morbidity as a change from baseline. It should be a valuable tool for field and public health practitioners.</p

Beyond Refugia: New insights on Quaternary climate variation and the evolution of biotic diversity in tropical South America

Haffer’s (Science 165: 131–137, 1969) Pleistocene refuge theory has provided motivation for 50 years of investigation into the connections between climate, biome dynamics, and neotropical speciation, although aspects of the orig- inal theory are not supported by subsequent studies. Recent advances in paleocli- matology suggest the need for reevaluating the role of Quaternary climate on evolutionary history in tropical South America. In addition to the many repeated large-amplitude climate changes associated with Pleistocene glacial-interglacial stages (~40 kyr and 100 kyr cyclicity), we highlight two aspects of Quaternary climate change in tropical South America: (1) an east-west precipitation dipole, induced by solar radiation changes associated with Earth’s precessional variations (~20 kyr cyclicity); and (2) periods of anomalously high precipitation that persisted for centuries-to-millennia (return frequencies ~1500 years) congruent with cold “Heinrich events” and cold Dansgaard-Oeschger “stadials” of the North Atlantic region. The spatial footprint of precipitation increase due to this North Atlantic forcing extended across almost all of tropical South America south of the equator. Combined, these three climate modes present a picture of climate change with different spatial and temporal patterns than envisioned in the original Pleistocene refuge theory. Responding to these climate changes, biomes expanded and contracted and became respectively connected and disjunct. Biome change undoubtedly influenced biotic diversification, but the nature of diversification likely was more complex than envisioned by the original Pleistocene refuge theory. In the lowlands, intermittent forest expansion and contraction led to species dispersal and subsequent isolation, promoting lineage diversification. These pulses of climate-driven biotic interchange profoundly altered the composition of regional species pools and triggered new evolutionary radiations. In the special case of the tropical Andean forests adjacent to the Amazon lowlands, new phylogenetic data provide abundant evidence for rapid biotic diversification during the Pleistocene. During warm interglacials and intersta- dials, lowland taxa dispersed upslope. Isolation in these disjunct climate refugia led to extinction for some taxa and speciation for others.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/155561/1/Baker2020.pdfDescription of Baker2020.pdf : Main articl

Focus on food outlets. Overview of potential indicators and data sources

De voedselomgeving bepaalt voor een groot deel wat mensen kopen, en dus of mensen gezond of ongezond eten. De voedselomgeving is alles wat kan bepalen wat we eten: van aanbod, prijzen, aanbiedingen, informatie en verkooppunten, tot sociale normen, culturele eetgewoonten en wettelijke afspraken. Ongezonde voeding vergroot de kans op overgewicht en chronische ziekten als hart- en vaatziekten en diabetes type 2. De Nederlandse overheid werkt daarom aan een voedselomgeving die mensen helpt om gezondere keuzes te maken. Om beleid te kunnen maken, is inzicht nodig in de verschillende onderdelen van de voedselomgeving. Het ministerie van VWS(Ministerie van Volksgezondheid, Welzijn en Sport ) wil daarom onder andere inventariseren hoe de verkooppunten van voedsel in kaart kunnen worden gebracht. Hieronder vallen alle verkooppunten van alle soorten voedsel, dus van groenteboer en supermarkt tot restaurant en snackbar. Het RIVM geeft voorbeelden hoe de verkooppunten in kaart kunnen worden gebracht (indicatoren) en welke informatie (databronnen) hierover in Nederland beschikbaar is. De twee belangrijkste indicatoren zijn: de ‘dichtheid’ en ‘nabijheid’ van verkooppunten. Met dichtheid bedoelen we hoeveel verkooppunten er in een bepaald gebied zijn, bijvoorbeeld hoeveel verkooppunten in een wijk. Bij nabijheid gaat het erom hoe ver een verkooppunt ligt van bijvoorbeeld een school of woonwijk. Om te kunnen bepalen welke indicatoren en databronnen te gebruiken zijn, moet eerst het doel van de monitor van de hele voedselomgeving duidelijk worden. Zo moet worden bepaald of de monitor nodig is om beleid over de voedselomgeving op landelijk niveau te ontwikkelen. Of juist om beleid over specifieke vraagstukken voor een gemeente te evalueren. Ook kan de mate waarin het voedselaanbod gezond en duurzaam is onderdeel van de monitor zijn. Het monitoren van de verkooppunten kan onderdeel zijn van een brede monitor van de voedselomgeving.What kinds of food people buy, and thus whether they eat healthily or unhealthily, is determined by their food environment. The food environment includes all factors that determine what we eat: from the food options available to us, prices, promotions, information and food outlets to social norms, cultural eating habits and legal agreements. Eating unhealthy increases the risk of obesity and chronic diseases like cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. To address this issue, the Dutch Government is working to create a food environment that helps people make healthier choices. In order to develop policy, the government needs insight into the various aspects of the food environment. Among other things, the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport would like to explore ways to create an overview of food outlets. This includes all food outlets for all types of food, from greengrocers and supermarkets to restaurants and snack bars. RIVM gives examples of how food outlets could be identified (indicators) and which information (data sources) is available in the Netherlands. The two most important indicators are the ‘density’ and ‘proximity’ of food outlets. Density refers to how many food outlets there are in a particular area, for example the number of outlets in a neighbourhood. Proximity describes how far a food outlet is from places like a school or residential area. Before the government can decide which indicators and data sources to use, it must first clarify the purpose of monitoring the entire food environment. For instance, it must determine whether monitoring is needed to develop food environment policy at the national level, or to evaluate policy on specific issues for a particular municipality. The extent to which the food supply is healthy and sustainable could be included in the monitoring activities as well. Monitoring sales outlets could be part of a broad food environment monitoring project

Voedselverkooppunten in beeld. Een inventarisatie van mogelijke indicatoren en databronnen

De voedselomgeving bepaalt voor een groot deel wat mensen kopen, en dus of mensen gezond of ongezond eten. De voedselomgeving is alles wat kan bepalen wat we eten: van aanbod, prijzen, aanbiedingen, informatie en verkooppunten, tot sociale normen, culturele eetgewoonten en wettelijke afspraken. Ongezonde voeding vergroot de kans op overgewicht en chronische ziekten als hart- en vaatziekten en diabetes type 2. De Nederlandse overheid werkt daarom aan een voedselomgeving die mensen helpt om gezondere keuzes te maken. Om beleid te kunnen maken, is inzicht nodig in de verschillende onderdelen van de voedselomgeving. Het ministerie van VWS(Ministerie van Volksgezondheid, Welzijn en Sport ) wil daarom onder andere inventariseren hoe de verkooppunten van voedsel in kaart kunnen worden gebracht. Hieronder vallen alle verkooppunten van alle soorten voedsel, dus van groenteboer en supermarkt tot restaurant en snackbar. Het RIVM geeft voorbeelden hoe de verkooppunten in kaart kunnen worden gebracht (indicatoren) en welke informatie (databronnen) hierover in Nederland beschikbaar is. De twee belangrijkste indicatoren zijn: de ‘dichtheid’ en ‘nabijheid’ van verkooppunten. Met dichtheid bedoelen we hoeveel verkooppunten er in een bepaald gebied zijn, bijvoorbeeld hoeveel verkooppunten in een wijk. Bij nabijheid gaat het erom hoe ver een verkooppunt ligt van bijvoorbeeld een school of woonwijk. Om te kunnen bepalen welke indicatoren en databronnen te gebruiken zijn, moet eerst het doel van de monitor van de hele voedselomgeving duidelijk worden. Zo moet worden bepaald of de monitor nodig is om beleid over de voedselomgeving op landelijk niveau te ontwikkelen. Of juist om beleid over specifieke vraagstukken voor een gemeente te evalueren. Ook kan de mate waarin het voedselaanbod gezond en duurzaam is onderdeel van de monitor zijn. Het monitoren van de verkooppunten kan onderdeel zijn van een brede monitor van de voedselomgeving

What we eat in the Netherlands (2012–2016): the ratio between animal and plant-based food products, protein and environmental impacts

De productie en consumptie van voedsel belasten het milieu. Een van de manieren om het milieu minder te belasten is om minder dierlijk voedsel te eten, zoals vlees, kaas en zuivel en meer plantaardig voedsel zoals (volkoren) graanproducten, peulvruchten, groenten, fruit en noten en zaden. Dit is ook goed voor de gezondheid. Een voedingspatroon met veel plantaardig voedsel beschermt namelijk tegen overgewicht en ziekten zoals diabetes type 2, hart- en vaatziekten en kanker. Het ministerie van Landbouw, Natuur en Voedselkwaliteit (LNV(Ministerie van Landbouw, Natuur en Voedselkwaliteit)) wil dat de bevolking in Nederland evenveel dierlijk als plantaardig eiwit binnenkrijgt in 2030. Het RIVM heeft daarom in kaart gebracht hoeveel dierlijk en plantaardig voedsel we eten. Ook is berekend hoeveel dierlijke en plantaardig eiwitten we via dat voedsel binnenkrijgen. Ten slotte is berekend in welke mate de productie en consumptie van voedsel het milieu belast, zoals via de uitstoot van broeikasgassen. Dit is bepaald voor de totale bevolking en voor groepen daarin, naar leeftijd en geslacht, opleidingsniveau en gewicht. Tussen 2012 en 2016 aten we in Nederland ongeveer evenveel plantaardig als dierlijk voedsel. Dierlijk voedsel bevat per kilogram meer eiwit dan plantaardig voedsel. De Nederlandse bevolking kreeg in die periode per dag meer dierlijke eiwitten binnen (61 procent) dan plantaardige (39 procent). De belangrijkste eiwitbronnen waren vlees, brood, granen, pasta en rijst en zuivel. Meer dan de helft van de plantaardige eiwitten kregen we binnen via brood en andere graanproducten. Zes procent van de plantaardige eiwitten kregen we binnen via groenten, noten en zaden, peulvruchten en vlees- en zuivelvervangers. Wat er werd gegeten en hoeveel eiwitten we daarbij binnenkregen verschilde tussen de onderzochte groepen. Wat de milieubelasting betreft waren de consumptie van vlees, kaas en zuivel de belangrijkste bronnen voor de uitstoot van broeikasgassen, landgebruik, verzuring en vermesting van zoet- en zoutwater. De consumptie van fruit en olijven, vruchten- en groentesappen, koffie en thee en vlees waren de belangrijkste bronnen voor het waterverbruik. Het RIVM heeft voor dit onderzoek informatie uit de Voedselconsumptiepeiling (VCP(Voedselconsumptiepeiling)) van 2012-2016 en de database milieubelasting voedingsmiddelen van het RIVM gebruikt. In 2023 krijgt dit onderzoek een update met VCP-gegevens uit 2019-2021.Food production and consumption have a significant impact on the environment. One of the ways to reduce the burden on the environment is to consume less animal-based foods such as meat, cheese and dairy and more plant-based foods such as (wholegrain) cereal products, legumes, vegetables, fruit, nuts and seeds. This has health benefits as well: a diet that is largely plant-based reduces the risk of obesity and diseases like type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer. By 2030, the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality would like the Dutch population to ingest equal amounts of animal and plant-based proteins. To that end, RIVM investigated the amount of animal and plant-based foods we eat. It also calculated the ratio of animal and plant-based proteins we ingest through those products. Finally, it calculated the extent to which food production and consumption harm the environment, for instance through greenhouse gas emissions. It did this both for the Dutch population as a whole and for several subsets, which were grouped by age, gender, level of education and weight status. Between 2012 and 2016, the amount of animal and plant-based food consumed in the Netherlands was roughly similar. Animal-based foods contain more protein per kilogram than plant-based foods. The Dutch population ingested more animal-based proteins (61%) than plantbased proteins (39%) per day during that period. The major sources of protein were meat, bread, cereals, pasta and rice and dairy. More than half of all plant-based proteins were ingested through bread and other cereal products. Six percent of plant-based proteins were ingested through vegetables, nuts and seeds, legumes and meat and dairy substitutes. The types of foods consumed and the amounts of protein ingested varied between the studied subsets. In terms of environmental burden, the consumption of meat, cheese and dairy accounted for most of the greenhouse gas emissions, land use, acidification and fresh and marine water eutrophication. The consumption of fruit and olives, fruit and vegetable juices, coffee and tea and meat were the leading causes of water consumption. For this study, RIVM used data from the Dutch National Food Consumption Survey 2012–2016 and RIVM’s own database on the environmental burden caused by food products. In 2023, the study will be updated with data from the Dutch National Food Consumption Survey 2019–2021