Ensembles Are Required to Handle Aleatoric and Parametric Uncertainty in Molecular Dynamics Simulation

Classical molecular dynamics is a computer simulation technique that is in widespread use across many areas of science, from physics and chemistry to materials, biology, and medicine. The method continues to attract criticism due its oft-reported lack of reproducibility which is in part due to a failure to submit it to reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ). Here we show that the uncertainty arises from a combination of (i) the input parameters and (ii) the intrinsic stochasticity of the method controlled by the random seeds. To illustrate the situation, we make a systematic UQ analysis of a widely used molecular dynamics code (NAMD), applied to estimate binding free energy of a ligand-bound to a protein. In particular, we replace the usually fixed input parameters with random variables, systematically distributed about their mean values, and study the resulting distribution of the simulation output. We also perform a sensitivity analysis, which reveals that, out of a total of 175 parameters, just six dominate the variance in the code output. Furthermore, we show that binding energy calculations dampen the input uncertainty, in the sense that the variation around the mean output free energy is less than the variation around the mean of the assumed input distributions, if the output is ensemble-averaged over the random seeds. Without such ensemble averaging, the predicted free energy is five times more uncertain. The distribution of the predicted properties is thus strongly dependent upon the random seed. Owing to this substantial uncertainty, robust statistical measures of uncertainty in molecular dynamics simulation require the use of ensembles in all contexts

Ensembles are required to handle aleatoric and parametric uncertainty in molecular dynamics simulation

Classical molecular dynamics is a computer simulation technique that is in widespread use across many areas of science, from physics and chemistry to materials, biology, and medicine. The method continues to attract criticism due its oft-reported lac

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Household Members and Other Close Contacts of COVID-19 Cases: A Serologic Study in Canton of Vaud, Switzerland.

Research on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission within households and other close settings using serological testing is scarce. We invited coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases diagnosed between February 27 and April 1, 2020, in Canton of Vaud, Switzerland, to participate, along with household members and other close contacts. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G antibodies were measured using a Luminex immunoassay. We estimated factors associated with serological status using generalized estimating equations. Overall, 219 cases, 302 household members, and 69 other close contacts participated between May 4 and June 27, 2020. More than half of household members (57.2%; 95% CI, 49.7%-64.3%) had developed a serologic response to SARS-CoV-2, while 19.0% (95% CI, 10.0%-33.2%) of other close contacts were seropositive. After adjusting for individual and household characteristics, infection risk was higher in household members aged ≥65 years than in younger adults (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.63; 95% CI, 1.05-12.60) and in those not strictly adhering to simple hygiene rules like hand washing (aOR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.02-3.17). The risk was lower when more than 5 people outside home were met during semiconfinement, compared with none (aOR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.16-0.74). Individual risk of household members to be seropositive was lower in large households (22% less per each additional person). During semiconfinement, household members of a COVID-19 case were at very high risk of getting infected, 3 times more than close contacts outside home. This highlights the need to provide clear messages on protective measures applicable at home. For elderly couples, who were especially at risk, providing external support for daily basic activities is essential

Calcium Homeostasis in Myogenic Differentiation Factor 1 (MyoD)-Transformed, Virally-Transduced, Skin-Derived Equine Myotubes

Dysfunctional skeletal muscle calcium homeostasis plays a central role in the pathophysiology of several human and animal skeletal muscle disorders, in particular, genetic disorders associated with ryanodine receptor 1 (RYR1) mutations, such as malignant hyperthermia, central core disease, multiminicore disease and certain centronuclear myopathies. In addition, aberrant skeletal muscle calcium handling is believed to play a pivotal role in the highly prevalent disorder of Thoroughbred racehorses, known as Recurrent Exertional Rhabdomyolysis. Traditionally, such defects were studied in human and equine subjects by examining the contractile responses of biopsied muscle strips exposed to caffeine, a potent RYR1 agonist. However, this test is not widely available and, due to its invasive nature, is potentially less suitable for valuable animals in training or in the human paediatric setting. Furthermore, increasingly, RYR1 gene polymorphisms (of unknown pathogenicity and significance) are being identified through next generation sequencing projects. Consequently, we have investigated a less invasive test that can be used to study calcium homeostasis in cultured, skin-derived fibroblasts that are converted to the muscle lineage by viral transduction with a MyoD (myogenic differentiation 1) transgene. Similar models have been utilised to examine calcium homeostasis in human patient cells, however, to date, there has been no detailed assessment of the cells’ calcium homeostasis, and in particular, the responses to agonists and antagonists of RYR1. Here we describe experiments conducted to assess calcium handling of the cells and examine responses to treatment with dantrolene, a drug commonly used for prophylaxis of recurrent exertional rhabdomyolysis in horses and malignant hyperthermia in humans

Prostaglandin profiling reveals a role for haematopoietic prostaglandin D synthase in adipose tissue macrophage polarisation in mice and humans.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Obesity has been associated with both changes in adipose tissue lipid metabolism and inflammation. A key class of lipid-derived signalling molecules involved in inflammation are the prostaglandins. In this study, we aimed to determine how obesity affects the levels of prostaglandins within white adipose tissue (WAT) and determine which cells within adipose tissue produce them. To avoid the effects of cellular stress on prostaglandin levels, we developed a multivariate statistical approach in which metabolite concentrations and transcriptomic data were integrated, allowing the assignment of metabolites to cell types. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Eicosanoids were measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry and mRNA levels using real-time PCR. Eicosanoid levels and transcriptomic data were combined using principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering in order to associate metabolites with cell types. Samples were obtained from C57Bl/6 mice aged 16 weeks. We studied the ob/ob genetically obese mouse model and diet-induced obesity model. We extended our results in mice to a cohort of morbidly obese humans undergoing bariatric surgery. RESULTS: Using our modelling approach, we determined that prostglandin D₂ (PGD₂) in adipose tissue was predominantly produced in macrophages by the haematopoietic isoform of prostaglandin D synthase (H-Pgds). Analysis of sub-fractionated WAT confirmed that H-Pgds was expressed in adipose tissue macrophages (ATMs). Furthermore, H-Pgds expression in ATMs isolated from lean and obese mice was consistent with it affecting macrophage polarisation. Functionally, we demonstrated that H-PGDS-produced PGD₂ polarised macrophages toward an M2, anti-inflammatory state. In line with a potential anti-inflammatory role, we found that H-PGDS expression in ATMs was positively correlated with both peripheral insulin and adipose tissue insulin sensitivity in humans. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we have developed a method to determine the cellular source of metabolites within an organ and used it to identify a new role for PGD₂ in the control of ATM polarisation.HQL-79 was a kind gift of Professor Yoshihiro Urade. Professor Vidal-Puig was funded by the BHF, MRC and BBSRC. Dr Virtue was funded by the BBSRC and the BHF. Dr Eiden, Dr Masoodi and Dr Griffin were funded by the MRC. Dr Mok was funded by the Wellcome Trust.This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://www.nature.com/ijo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ijo201534a.htm

Update on HER-2 as a target for cancer therapy: The ERBB2 promoter and its exploitation for cancer treatment

Overexpression of the ERBB2 proto-oncogene is associated with amplification of the gene in breast cancer but increased activity of the promoter also plays a significant role. Members of two transcription factor families (AP-2 and Ets) show increased binding to the promoter in over-expressing cells. Consequently, strategies have been devised to target promoter activity, either through the DNA binding sites for these factors, or through another promoter sequence, a polypurine-polypyrimidine repeat structure. The promoter has also been exploited for its tumour-specific activity to direct the accumulation of cytotoxic compounds selectively within cancer cells. Our current understanding of the ERBB2 promoter is reviewed and the status of these therapeutic avenues is discussed

Gene therapy for carcinoma of the breast: Genetic toxins

Gene therapy was initially envisaged as a potential treatment for genetically inherited, monogenic disorders. The applications of gene therapy have now become wider, however, and include cardiovascular diseases, vaccination and cancers in which conventional therapies have failed. With regard to oncology, various gene therapy approaches have been developed. Among them, the use of genetic toxins to kill cancer cells selectively is emerging. Two different types of genetic toxins have been developed so far: the metabolic toxins and the dominant-negative class of toxins. This review describes these two different approaches, and discusses their potential applications in cancer gene therapy

High Resolution In Vivo Bioluminescent Imaging for the Study of Bacterial Tumour Targeting

The ability to track microbes in real time in vivo is of enormous value for preclinical investigations in infectious disease or gene therapy research. Bacteria present an attractive class of vector for cancer therapy, possessing a natural ability to grow preferentially within tumours following systemic administration. Bioluminescent Imaging (BLI) represents a powerful tool for use with bacteria engineered to express reporter genes such as lux. BLI is traditionally used as a 2D modality resulting in images that are limited in their ability to anatomically locate cell populations. Use of 3D diffuse optical tomography can localize the signals but still need to be combined with an anatomical imaging modality like micro-Computed Tomography (μCT) for interpretation