Quantitative Validation: An Overview and Framework for PD Backtesting and Benchmarking.

The aim of credit risk models is to identify and quantify future outcomes of a set of risk measurements. In other words, the model's purpose is to provide as good an approximation as possible of what constitutes the true underlying risk relationship between a set of inputs and a target variable. These parameters are used for regulatory capital calculations to determine the capital needed that serves a buffer to protect depositors in adverse economic conditions. In order to manage model risk, financial institutions need to set up validation processes so as to monitor the quality of the models on an ongoing basis. Validation is important to inform all stakeholders (e.g. board of directors, senior management, regulators, investors, borrowers, …) and as such allow them to make better decisions. Validation can be considered from both a quantitative and qualitative point of view. Backtesting and benchmarking are key quantitative validation tools. In backtesting, the predicted risk measurements (PD, LGD, CCF) will be contrasted with observed measurements using a workbench of available test statistics to evaluate the calibration, discrimination and stability of the model. A timely detection of reduced performance is crucial since it directly impacts profitability and risk management strategies. The aim of benchmarking is to compare internal risk measurements with external risk measurements so to allow to better gauge the quality of the internal rating system. This paper will focus on the quantitative PD validation process within a Basel II context. We will set forth a traffic light indicator approach that employs all relevant statistical tests to quantitatively validate the used PD model, and document this complete approach with a reallife case-study.Framework; Benchmarking; Credit; Credit scoring; Control;

The protective layer of biofilm:A repellent function for a new class of amphiphilic proteins

Bacteria can survive harsh conditions when growing in complex communities of cells known as biofilms. The matrix of the biofilm presents a scaffold where cells are attached to each other and to the surface. The biofilm matrix is also a protective barrier that confers tolerance against various antimicrobial agents. In this issue of Molecular Microbiology, Kobayashi and Iwano (2012) show that the liquid permeability of Bacillus subtilis biofilms is determined by a small secreted protein, i.e. BslA (formerly called YuaB). BslA is important for the proper development of biofilms, but unlike exopolysaccharide and TasA, is not directly involved in cell cluster formation, and is synthesized following the production of exopolysaccharide and amyloid fibres. The amphiphilic BslA protein forms a polymer in vitro and localizes in vivo to the surface of the biofilm. The microstructures of the biofilm wrinkles are reduced in the bslA mutant strain and the liquid repellency of the biofilm surface is diminished. Exogenously added BslA42181 protein complements the bslA mutation and restores not only water repellency, but also the formation of aerial structures. This study demonstrates that amphiphilic proteins have an important role in liquid repellency of biofilms and it suggests that these polymers contribute to antimicrobial resistance

Neonicotinoids in bees: a review on concentrations, side-effects and risk assessment.

Neonicotinoid insecticides are successfully applied to control pests in a variety of agricultural crops; however, they may not only affect pest insects but also non-target organisms such as pollinators. This review summarizes, for the first time, 15 years of research on the hazards of neonicotinoids to bees including honey bees, bumble bees and solitary bees. The focus of the paper is on three different key aspects determining the risks of neonicotinoid field concentrations for bee populations: (1) the environmental neonicotinoid residue levels in plants, bees and bee products in relation to pesticide application, (2) the reported side-effects with special attention for sublethal effects, and (3) the usefulness for the evaluation of neonicotinoids of an already existing risk assessment scheme for systemic compounds. Although environmental residue levels of neonicotinoids were found to be lower than acute/chronic toxicity levels, there is still a lack of reliable data as most analyses were conducted near the detection limit and for only few crops. Many laboratory studies described lethal and sublethal effects of neonicotinoids on the foraging behavior, and learning and memory abilities of bees, while no effects were observed in field studies at field-realistic dosages. The proposed risk assessment scheme for systemic compounds was shown to be applicable to assess the risk for side-effects of neonicotinoids as it considers the effect on different life stages and different levels of biological organization (organism versus colony). Future research studies should be conducted with field-realistic concentrations, relevant exposure and evaluation durations. Molecular markers may be used to improve risk assessment by a better understanding of the mode of action (interaction with receptors) of neonicotinoids in bees leading to the identification of environmentally safer compounds

Combination, Modulation and Interplay of Modern Radiotherapy with the Tumor Microenvironment and Targeted Therapies in Pancreatic Cancer: Which Candidates to Boost Radiotherapy?

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma cancer (PDAC) is a highly diverse disease with low tumor immunogenicity. PDAC is also one of the deadliest solid tumor and will remain a common cause of cancer death in the future. Treatment options are limited, and tumors frequently develop resistance to current treatment modalities. Since PDAC patients do not respond well to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), novel methods for overcoming resistance are being explored. Compared to other solid tumors, the PDAC's tumor microenvironment (TME) is unique and complex and prevents systemic agents from effectively penetrating and killing tumor cells. Radiotherapy (RT) has the potential to modulate the TME (e.g., by exposing tumor-specific antigens, recruiting, and infiltrating immune cells) and, therefore, enhance the effectiveness of targeted systemic therapies. Interestingly, combining ICI with RT and/or chemotherapy has yielded promising preclinical results which were not successful when translated into clinical trials. In this context, current standards of care need to be challenged and transformed with modern treatment techniques and novel therapeutic combinations. One way to reconcile these findings is to abandon the concept that the TME is a well-compartmented population with spatial, temporal, physical, and chemical elements acting independently. This review will focus on the most interesting advancements of RT and describe the main components of the TME and their known modulation after RT in PDAC. Furthermore, we will provide a summary of current clinical data for combinations of RT/targeted therapy (tRT) and give an overview of the most promising future directions

Real-world indoor mobility with simulated prosthetic vision:The benefits and feasibility of contour-based scene simplification at different phosphene resolutions

Contains fulltext : 246314.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)Neuroprosthetic implants are a promising technology for restoring some form of vision in people with visual impairments via electrical neurostimulation in the visual pathway. Although an artificially generated prosthetic percept is relatively limited compared with normal vision, it may provide some elementary perception of the surroundings, re-enabling daily living functionality. For mobility in particular, various studies have investigated the benefits of visual neuroprosthetics in a simulated prosthetic vision paradigm with varying outcomes. The previous literature suggests that scene simplification via image processing, and particularly contour extraction, may potentially improve the mobility performance in a virtual environment. In the current simulation study with sighted participants, we explore both the theoretically attainable benefits of strict scene simplification in an indoor environment by controlling the environmental complexity, as well as the practically achieved improvement with a deep learning-based surface boundary detection implementation compared with traditional edge detection. A simulated electrode resolution of 26 x 26 was found to provide sufficient information for mobility in a simple environment. Our results suggest that, for a lower number of implanted electrodes, the removal of background textures and within-surface gradients may be beneficial in theory. However, the deep learning-based implementation for surface boundary detection did not improve mobility performance in the current study. Furthermore, our findings indicate that, for a greater number of electrodes, the removal of within-surface gradients and background textures may deteriorate, rather than improve, mobility. Therefore, finding a balanced amount of scene simplification requires a careful tradeoff between informativity and interpretability that may depend on the number of implanted electrodes.14 p

Neonicotinoids in bees: a review on concentrations, side-effects and risk assessment

Neonicotinoid insecticides are successfully applied to control pests in a variety of agricultural crops; however, they may not only affect pest insects but also non-target organisms such as pollinators. This review summarizes, for the first time, 15 years of research on the hazards of neonicotinoids to bees including honey bees, bumble bees and solitary bees. The focus of the paper is on three different key aspects determining the risks of neonicotinoid field concentrations for bee populations: (1) the environmental neonicotinoid residue levels in plants, bees and bee products in relation to pesticide application, (2) the reported side-effects with special attention for sublethal effects, and (3) the usefulness for the evaluation of neonicotinoids of an already existing risk assessment scheme for systemic compounds. Although environmental residue levels of neonicotinoids were found to be lower than acute/chronic toxicity levels, there is still a lack of reliable data as most analyses were conducted near the detection limit and for only few crops. Many laboratory studies described lethal and sublethal effects of neonicotinoids on the foraging behavior, and learning and memory abilities of bees, while no effects were observed in field studies at field-realistic dosages. The proposed risk assessment scheme for systemic compounds was shown to be applicable to assess the risk for side-effects of neonicotinoids as it considers the effect on different life stages and different levels of biological organization (organism versus colony). Future research studies should be conducted with field-realistic concentrations, relevant exposure and evaluation durations. Molecular markers may be used to improve risk assessment by a better understanding of the mode of action (interaction with receptors) of neonicotinoids in bees leading to the identification of environmentally safer compound

Beta-blockers and health-related quality of life in patients with peripheral arterial disease and COPD

Yvette RBM van Gestel1, Sanne E Hoeks1, Don D Sin2, Henk Stam3, Frans W Mertens3, Jeroen J Bax4, Ron T van Domburg5, Don Poldermans61Department of Anesthesiology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; 2Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia and The James Hogg iCAPTURe Center, St. Paul’s Hospital, Vancouver, Canada; 3Department of Pulmonology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; 4Department of Cardiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands; 5Department of Cardiology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; 6Department of Vascular Surgery, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The NetherlandsBackground: Beta-blockers are frequently withheld in patients with cardiovascular disease who also have chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) because of concerns that they might provoke bronchospasm and cause deterioration in health status. Although beta1-selective beta-blockers are associated with reduced mortality in COPD patients, their effects on health status are unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between beta-blockers and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in patients with peripheral arterial disease and COPD.Methods: Of the original cohort of 3371 vascular surgery patients, 1310 had COPD of whom 469 survived during long-term follow-up. These COPD patients were sent the Short Form-36 (SF-36) health-related quality of life questionnaire, which was completed and returned by 326 (70%) patients.Results: No significant differences in any of the SF-36 domains were observed between COPD patients who did and did not use beta-blockers (p > 0.05 for all). Furthermore, beta-blockers were not associated with any impairment in HRQOL among patients with COPD.Conclusion: Beta-blockers had no material impact on the HRQOL of patients with peripheral arterial disease who also had COPD. This suggests that beta-blockers can, in most circumstances, be administered to patients with COPD without impairment in HRQOL. Keywords: beta-blockers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, vascular surgery, health-related quality of lif

More frequent, more costly? Health economic modelling aspects of monitoring glaucoma patients in England

BACKGROUND: Chronic open angle glaucoma (COAG) is an age-related eye disease causing irreversible loss of visual field (VF). Health service delivery for COAG is challenging given the large number of diagnosed patients requiring lifelong periodic monitoring by hospital eye services. Yet frequent examination better determines disease worsening and speed of VF loss under treatment. We examine the cost-effectiveness of increasing frequency of VF examinations during follow-up using a health economic model. METHODS: Two different VF monitoring schemes defined as current practice (annual VF testing) and proposed practice (three VF tests per year in the first 2 years after diagnosis) were examined. A purpose written health economic Markov model is used to test the hypothesis that cost effectiveness improves by implementing proposed practice on groups of patients stratified by age and severity of COAG. Further, a new component of the model, estimating costs of visual impairment, was added. Results were derived from a simulated cohort of 10000 patients with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) used as main outcome measures. RESULTS: An ICER of £21,392 per QALY was derived for proposed practice improving to a value of £11,382 once savings for prevented visual impairment was added to the model. Proposed practice was more cost-effective in younger patients. Proposed practice for patients with advanced disease at diagnosis generated ICERs > £60,000 per QALY; these cases would likely be on the most intensive treatment pathway making clinical information on speed of VF loss redundant. Sensitivity analysis indicated results to be robust in relation to hypothetical willingness to pay threshold identified by national guidelines, although greatest uncertainty was allied to estimates of implementation and visual impairment costs. CONCLUSION: Increasing VF monitoring at the earliest stages of follow-up for COAG appears to be cost-effective depending on reasonable assumptions about implementation costs. Our health economic model highlights benefits of stratifying patients to more or less monitoring based on age and stage of disease at diagnosis; a prospective study is needed to prove these findings. Further, this works highlights gaps in knowledge about long term costs of visual impairment

GAA Deficiency in Pompe Disease Is Alleviated by Exon Inclusion in iPSC-Derived Skeletal Muscle Cells

Pompe disease is a metabolic myopathy caused by deficiency of the acid α-glucosidase (GAA) enzyme and results in progressive wasting of skeletal muscle cells. The c.-32-13T>G (IVS1) GAA variant promotes exon 2 skipping during pre-mRNA splicing and is the most common variant for the childhood/adult disease form. We previously identified antisense oligonucleotides (AONs) that promoted GAA exon 2 inclusion in patient-derived fibroblasts. It was unknown how these AONs would affect GAA splicing in skeletal muscle cells. To test this, we expanded induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived myogenic progenitors and differentiated these to multinucleated myotubes. AONs restored splicing in myotubes to a similar extent as in fibroblasts, suggesting that they act by modulating the action of shared splicing regulators. AONs targeted the putative polypyrimidine tract of a cryptic splice acceptor site that was part of a pseudo exon in GAA intron 1. Blocking of the cryptic splice donor of the pseudo exon with AONs likewise promoted GAA exon 2 inclusion. The simultaneous blocking of the cryptic acceptor and cryptic donor sites restored the majority of canonical splicing and alleviated GAA enzyme deficiency. These results highlight the relevance of cryptic splicing in human disease and its potential as therapeutic target for splicing modulation using AONs