Listeria monocytogenes Risk Assessment on cold-smoked and salt cured fishery products in Finland : a Repeated Exposure Model

Listeria monocytogenes causes severe consequences especially for persons belonging to risk groups. Finland is among the countries with highest number of listeriosis cases in the European Union. Although most reported cases appear to be sporadic and the maximum bacterial concentration of 100 cfu/g is not usually exceeded at retail, cold smoked and salt-cured fish products have been noted as those products with great risk especially for the elderly. In order to investigate the listeriosis risk more carefully, an exposure assessment was developed, and laboratory results for cold smoked and salt-cured salmon products were exploited. L. monocytogenes exposure was modeled for consumers in two age groups, the elderly population as a risk group and the working-age population as a reference. Incidence was assessed by estimating bacterial growth in the food products at three temperatures. Bayesian estimation of the risk was based on bacterial occurrence and product consumption data and epidemiological population data. The model builds on a two-state Markov chain describing repeated consumption on consecutive days. The cumulative exposure is probabilistically governed by the daily decreasing likelihood of continued consumption and the increasing bacterial concentrations due to growth. The population risk was then predicted with a Poisson distribution accounting for the daily probabilities of purchasing a contaminated product and the cumulative total probability of infection from its use. According to the model presented in this article, elderly Finns are at a greater risk of acquiring listeriosis than healthy adults. The risk for the elderly does not fully diminish even if the products have been stored at the recommended temperature (between 0 and 3 °C). It can be concluded that the stage after retail, i.e. food handling and storage by consumer or professional kitchens, is essential to protection against listeriosis. The estimation model provides means for assessing the joint impacts of these effects

24-h urinary sodium excretion and the risk of adverse outcomes

AimsThe objective was to evaluate whether sodium intake, assessed with the gold standard 24-h urinary collections, was related to long-term incidence of death, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus (DM). MethodsA cohort of 4630 individuals aged 25-64 years collected 24-h urine samples in 1979-2002 and were followed up to 14 years for the incidence of any CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF) and DM event, and death. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between the baseline salt intake and incident events and adjusted for baseline age, body mass index, serum cholesterol, prevalent DM, and stratified by sex and cohort baseline year. ResultsDuring the follow-up, we observed 423 deaths, 424 CVD events (288 CHD events, 142 strokes, 139 HF events) and 161 DM events. Compared with the highest quartile of salt intake, persons in the lowest quartile had a lower incidence of CVD (hazard ratio [HR] 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51-0.95, p = .02), CHD (HR 0.63 [95% CI 0.42-0.94], p = .02) and DM (HR 0.52 [95% CI 0.31-0.87], p = .01). The results were non-significant for mortality, HF, and stroke.Conclusion High sodium intake is associated with an increased incidence of CVD and DM.</div

Inequalities in education and national income are associated with poorer diet: pooled analysis of individual participant data across 12 European countries

Background: Malnutrition linked to noncommunicable diseases presents major health problems across Europe. The World Health Organisation encourages countries to conduct national dietary surveys to obtain data to inform public health policies designed to prevent noncommunicable diseases. Methods: Data on 27334 participants aged 19-64y were harmonised and pooled across national dietary survey datasets from 12 countries across the WHO European Region. Weighted mean nutrient intakes were age-standardised using the Eurostat 2013 European Standard Population. Associations between country-level Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and key nutrients and nutrient densities were investigated using linear regression. The potential mitigating influence of participant-level educational status was explored. Findings: Higher GDP was positively associated with total sugar intake (5·0% energy for each 10% increase in GDP, 95% CI 0·6, 9·3). Scandinavian countries had the highest vitamin D intakes. Participants with higher educational status had better nutritional intakes, particularly within lower GDP countries. A 10% higher GDP was associated with lower total fat intakes (-0·2% energy, 95% CI -0·3, -0·1) and higher daily total folate intakes (14µg, 95% CI 12, 16) in higher educated individuals. Interpretation: Lower income countries and lower education groups had poorer diet, particularly for micronutrients. We demonstrate for the first time that higher educational status appeared to have a mitigating effect on poorer diet in lower income countries. It illustrates the feasibility and value of harmonising national dietary survey data to inform European policy regarding access to healthy diets, particularly in disadvantaged groups. It specifically highlights the need for strong policies supporting nutritional intakes, prioritising lower education groups and lower income countries

Forestry for a low carbon future. Integrating forests and wood products in climate change strategies

Following the introduction, Chapter 2 provides an overview of mitigation in the forest sector, addressing the handling of forests under UNFCCC. Chapters 3 to 5 focus on forest-based mitigation options – afforestation, reforestation, REDD+ and forest management – and Chapters 6 and 7 focus on wood-product based options – wood energy and green building and furnishing. The publication describes these activities in the context of UNFCCC rules, assessing their mitigation potential and economic attrac tiveness as well as opportunities and challenges for implementation. Chapter 8 discusses the different considerations involved in choosing the right mix of options as well as some of the instruments and means for implementation. Chapter 8 also highlights the co-benefits generated by forest-based mitigation and emphasizes that economic assessment of mitigation options needs to take these benefits into account. The concluding chapter assesses national commitments under UNFCCC involving forest miti gation and summarizes the challenges and opportunities