Are more severe recessions followed by stronger recoveries? Evidence from the Mexican states employment

On the basis of the suggestions of Friedman (1969, 1993) and Moore (1965) and considering the framework proposed by Balke and Wynne (1994, 1995), this paper evaluates whether recoveries growth depends on the characteristics of prior recessions (depth, steepness and duration) in the case of the Mexican states employment during the 2001-2003 and 2008-2009 recessions. The original models are extended to include the effects of external and fiscal shocks, as measured by the annual growth rates of the tradable goods production sector and the federal government expenditure of the year the recoveries start, trying to capture the initial impulses that may have taken the economy out the recession. The recession and recovery periods (turning points, namely peaks and troughs) are identified by using the classical business cycles methodology introduced by Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1998) that follows the spirit of Mitchel (1927) and Burns and Mitchel (1946). Recoveries growth is measured as the monthly average growth rate from the end of the prior recession up to 9, 12 and the number of months required to get the prior peak. Conventional linear regression models are estimated for total, permanent and temporary employment. To avoid possible problems of collinearity between depth and duration, on the one hand, and steepness, on the other, these variables were included in two different specification models for each type of employment. The corresponding tests indicate that the estimated models present acceptable specifications, in general. Our main results suggest that depth and steepness of prior recessions (as measured by the percentage accumulated drop and the monthly average growth rate of employment over the recession, respectively) have separated negative effects on subsequent growth recoveries, especially after the 2001 recession. Regarding the effects of other shocks pulling the economy out the recession, our results suggest that the fiscal policy followed by the federal government did not contribute to the recovery from the 2008 recession at state level since the coefficients are negative, which would imply the existence of a pro-cyclical policy at least at the end of the recession period. In turn, in the models of total and permanent employment, the tradable goods sector has robust positive and significant effects that reflect the important role of the external demand in the recovery from the Great Recession. These two variables had no significant effects of the recovery following the 2001 recession. In general, the evidence reported in this paper is consistent with the implications of different models that try to explain the ?bounce-back? effect and provides some support to the hypothesis that deeper or steeper recessions are followed by stronger recoveries in the Mexican states

Mapping of clusters about the relationship between e-government and corruption in Mexico

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the e-goverment on corruption in Mexico. Mexico, although it has fought corruption from different angles, continues to be among the most corrupt countries in the world. One possible tool to reduce corruption, or at least so-called bureaucratic corruption, is e-government. There are studies that confirm an inverse relationship between e-government and corruption; as e-government increases, corruption decreases. The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of the development of e-government (electronic portals) on corruption. Design/methodology/approach: To achieve the stated objective, the authors have used econometrics (clusters) as the main methodology to obtain a possible confirmation of such inverse relationship between e-government and corruption in the 32 states that make up the country, for the period 2015–2019. Findings: In the states that make up the Republic of Mexico, as the development of e-government increases, the corruption variable does not decrease. There is no significant relationship between these two variables. Originality/value: The relationship between the variables e-government and corruption has been extensively studied in previous articles. However, in Latin America, studies on the impact of e-government on corruption are scarce, and at the Mexican national level are almost nonexisten

Objetivos de inflación y credibilidad de la política monetaria en América Latina

Tesis doctoral inédita - Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Economía Aplicada, Instituto L.R. Klein. Fecha de lectura: 17-05-0

CHOQUES DE PRECIOS DEL GAS NATURAL Y ASIGNACIÓN DE INGRESOS FISCALES EN LA POSICIÓN FISCAL DE BOLIVIA, 2003-2011: ESCENARIOS DE REGLAS FISCALES

El problema de investigación surge en dos ámbitos: i) la ausencia de una regla fiscal para Bolivia (problema práctico); ii) el rol que ejercen los choques de precios del gas natural y la asignación de los ingresos fiscales al gasto público con determinaciones sobre la posición fiscal (problema teórico). Finalmente, se plantean reglas fiscales comparativas en función de diferentes alternativas de canalización de ingresos del recurso natural hacia el gasto de capital. El propósito de los diversos escenarios planteados es evidenciar una mejora en la trayectoria de la deuda pública en el corto y mediano plazo.La posición fiscal de un país corresponde al análisis del estado contable de corto y mediano plazo del resultado fiscal y de la deuda pública. Para países dependientes de un recurso natural se suele analizar el resultado fiscal con y sin petróleo; sin embargo, en esta investigación -aplicada al caso de Bolivia- se examina el balance fiscal con y sin ingresos fiscales provenientes del gas natural (ingresos gasíferos y no gasíferos).Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Méxic

Evaluación del cumplimiento de los objetivos de inflación y el papel de las expectativas: evidencia para México, 1995-2012

After more than a decade of inflation targeting, it is important to evaluate its scope in terms of the inflation objectives set by the central bank in Mexico, and on the role, that inflation expectations have played in this process as a nominal anchor for prices. In particular, we contrast how often the bank deviates from its goal and investigate on the stabilization of inflation expectations in an environment of low and stable inflation, but subject to macroeconomic shocks, which are evaluated using a VAR model. Furthermore, a correlation analysis between inflation expectations and their actual values is performed, based on the Rolling Windows methodology. The results suggest that the degree of association between actual inflation and its expectations has declined over time and the effects of macroeconomic shocks on expectations are less intense during the inflation targeting period

Indicador de infraestructuras productivas por entidad federativa en México, 1970-2003

El objetivo de este trabajo es llevar a cabo la cuantificación de un indicador de infraestructuras en unidades físicas, que engloba las principales categorías (transportes, telecomunicaciones, abastecimiento de agua, energía eléctrica y drenaje), agregadas mediante la utilización del análisis multivariante. Este indicador ha permitido comprobar el hecho de que las entidades federativas que poseen gran parte de las infraestructuras pertenecen a las zonas en las que se observa mayor actividad económica

Frontera tecnológica y eficiencia técnica sectorial en México: un análisis envolvente de datos

Esta investigación tiene como objetivo determinar la frontera tecnológica y la eficiencia técnica sectorial de México. La metodología empleada es el Data Envelopment Analysis. Los resultados muestran, en primer lugar, que los sectores relacionados con la agricultura, minería, manufacturas, servicios financieros, profesionales y corporativos, son totalmente eficientes bajo rendimientos variables a escala mientras que bajo rendimientos constantes se excluye el sector 11; la media de eficiencia es de 0.71 bajo rendimientos variables y 0.64 bajo rendimientos constantes a escala, por lo que existe la posibilidad de mejorar el output en aproximadamente un 30% haciendo mejor uso del capital y el empleo.This research aims to determine the technological frontier and technical sectorial efficiency in Mexico. The methodology is based on Data Envelopment Analysis. The results show, first, that the sectors related to agriculture, mining, manufacturing, financial services, professional and corporative, are fully efficient under variable returns to scale while under constant returns excluding the sector 11. The average efficiency is 0.71 under variable returns and 0.64 under constant returns to scale, so there is the possibility of improving the output by about 30% doing better use of capital and employment

The Microbiome and the Epigenetics of Diabetes Mellitus

Gut microbiota (GM) in the epigenetic mechanisms of diabetes mellitus and the reprogramming of the cells is a novel and emerging concept. The purpose of this chapter is to describe the modification of the GM and its relation with DM2. The increased risk of this disease is associated with changes in the amount of Bacteroides/Clostridium in the Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes ratio of people having DM. A dysbiosis state associated generates low-grade inflammation with similar characteristics that occur under metabolic syndrome, whose pattern is recognized by Toll-like receptor that recognizes important patterns of immunity. The synthesis of butyrate generated by intestinal microorganisms inhibits the metabolic pathway of histone deacetylase, promoting cellular differentiation, proliferation, and insulin resistance. On the other hand, the direct relationship between the neuroendocrine system and the GM has been demonstrated through the production of serotonin by enterochromaffin cells, whose action could influence the etiopathogenic factors of DM2

Vulnerabilidad social y su distribución espacial: el caso de las entidades federativas de México, 1990-2010

Now days is too often to find differences in the levels of welfare in countries and regions, giving as result unprotected and social vulnerability in specific social groups. The nearest source of this situation has to do with structural problems in the implementation and operation of the particular social policy and economic policy in general. The aim of this study is to determine the social vulnerability in the states of Mexico, identify those factors that have contributed to this situation and watch if this phenomenon has changed spatially and temporally. To do this we construct a vulnerability index which includes the main aspects related to social and economic welfare, as identified in the literature.En la actualidad, resulta frecuente encontrar en los países y regiones importantes discrepancias en los niveles de bienestar de la población, lo que se traduce en condiciones de desprotección y vulnerabilidad social en grupos sociales específicos. El origen más próximo de esta situación tiene que ver con problemas estructurales en la instrumentación y operación de la política social en particular y de la política económica en general. El objetivo de este trabajo es conocer la situación de vulnerabilidad social en que se encuentran las entidades federativas, identificar qué factores han contribuido a esta situación y observar si este fenómeno ha cambiado espacial y temporalmente. Para ello se construye un índice de vulnerabilidad en el que se incluyen los principales aspectos relacionados con el bienestar social y económico, señalados en la literatura