Gradient Estimation for a Class of Systems with Bulk Services: A Problem in Public Transportation

This paper deals with a system where batch arrivals wait in a station until a server (a train) is available, at which moment it services all customers in waiting. This is an example of a bulk server, which has many applications in public transportation, telecommunications, computer resource allocation, and multiple access telecommuncation networks, among others. We consider a subway model and focus on a metro line serving a particular metro station. Denote the planned inter-departure time of this line by theta. The metro station is served by several other lines and passengers change trainsat the station. Traveling times of trains are assumed to be given by fixed times and an additional stochastic noise. We perform a sensitivity analysis of the total delay ofpassengers waiting for the "" line with respect to theta. We establish a smoothed perturbation analysis (SPA), a measure--valued differentiation (MVD), and a score function (SF) estimator. Numerical experiments are performed to compare the ensuing estimators. It turns out that the SPA and MVD estimators are intrinsically different and the model presented in this paper may serve as a counter--example to the widespread belief that SPA and MVD yield similar estimators

Associations between antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance of Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates in European Union/European Economic Area and patients' gender, sexual orientation and anatomical site of infection, 2009-2016

Background: The emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Neisseria gonorrhoeae, nationally and internationally, is a serious threat to the management and control of gonorrhoea. Limited and conflicting data regarding the epidemiological drivers of gonococcal AMR internationally have been published. We examined the antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance of gonococcal isolates (n = 15,803) collected across 27 European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries in 2009–2016, in conjunction to epidemiological and clinical data of the corresponding patients, to elucidate associations between antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance and patients’ gender, sexual orientation and anatomical site of infection. Methods: In total, 15,803 N. gonorrhoeae isolates from the European Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programme (Euro-GASP), 2009–2016, were examined. Associations between gonococcal susceptibility/resistance and patients’ gender, sexual orientation and anatomical site of infection were investigated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Statistical significance was determined by Pearson χ 2-test or Fisher’s exact test with two-tailed p-values of < 0.05 indicating significance Results: The overall gonococcal resistance from 2009 to 2016 was 51.7% (range during the years: 46.5–63.5%), 7.1% (4.5–13.2%), 4.3% (1.8–8.7%), and 0.2% (0.0–0.5%) to ciprofloxacin, azithromycin, cefixime, and ceftriaxone, respectively. The level of resistance combined with decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone was 10.2% (5.7–15.5%). Resistance to cefixime and ciprofloxacin, and resistance combined with decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone were positively associated with urogenital infections and heterosexual males, males with sexual orientation not reported and females (except for ciprofloxacin), i.e. when compared to men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM). Azithromycin resistance was positively associated with heterosexual males, but no association was significant regarding anatomical site of infection. Conclusions: Overall, sexual orientation was the main variable associated with gonococcal AMR. Strongest positive associations were identified with heterosexual patients, particularly males, and not MSM. To provide evidence-based understanding and mitigate gonococcal AMR emergence and spread, associations between antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance and patients’ gender, sexual orientation and anatomical site of infection need to be further investigated in different geographic settings. In general, these insights will support identification of groups at increased risk and targeted public health actions such as intensified screening, 3-site testing using molecular diagnostics, sexual contact tracing, and surveillance of treatment failures.The study was funded by the ECDC (Framework Contract No. ECDC/2017/004). Open Access funding provided by Örebro UniversityS

Classification of Radiologically Isolated Syndrome and Clinically Isolated Syndrome with Machine-Learning Techniques

Background and purpose: The unanticipated detection by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the brain of asymptomatic subjects of white matter lesions suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS) has been named radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS). As the difference between early MS [i.e. clinically isolated syndrome (CIS)] and RIS is the occurrence of a clinical event, it is logical to improve detection of the subclinical form without interfering with MRI as there are radiological diagnostic criteria for that. Our objective was to use machine-learning classification methods to identify morphometric measures that help to discriminate patients with RIS from those with CIS. Methods: We used a multimodal 3-T MRI approach by combining MRI biomarkers (cortical thickness, cortical and subcortical grey matter volume, and white matter integrity) of a cohort of 17 patients with RIS and 17 patients with CIS for single-subject level classification. Results: The best proposed models to predict the diagnosis of CIS and RIS were based on the Naive Bayes, Bagging and Multilayer Perceptron classifiers using only three features: the left rostral middle frontal gyrus volume and the fractional anisotropy values in the right amygdala and right lingual gyrus. The Naive Bayes obtained the highest accuracy [overall classification, 0.765; area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), 0.782]. Conclusions: A machine-learning approach applied to multimodal MRI data may differentiate between the earliest clinical expressions of MS (CIS and RIS) with an accuracy of 78%. Keywords: Bagging; Multilayer Perceptron; Naive Bayes classifier; clinically isolated syndrome; diffusion tensor imaging; machine-learning; magnetic resonance imaging; multiple sclerosis; radiologically isolated syndrome.Comment: 24 pages, 2 table

Significant increase in azithromycin "resistance" and susceptibility to ceftriaxone and cefixime in Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates in 26 European countries, 2019

Background: The European Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programme (Euro-GASP) performs annual sentinel surveillance of Neisseria gonorrhoeae susceptibility to therapeutically relevant antimicrobials across the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA). We present the Euro-GASP results from 2019 (26 countries), linked to patient epidemiological data, and compared with data from previous years. Methods: Agar dilution and minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) gradient strip methodologies were used to determine the antimicrobial susceptibility (using EUCAST clinical breakpoints, where available) of 3239 N. gonorrhoeae isolates from 26 countries across the EU/EEA. Significance of differences compared with Euro-GASP results in previous years was analysed using Z-test and the Pearson's χ2 test was used to assess significance of odds ratios for associations between patient epidemiological data and antimicrobial resistance. Results: European N. gonorrhoeae isolates collected between 2016 and 2019 displayed shifting MIC distributions for; ceftriaxone, with highly susceptible isolates increasing over time and occasional resistant isolates each year; cefixime, with highly-susceptible isolates becoming increasingly common; azithromycin, with a shift away from lower MICs towards higher MICs above the EUCAST epidemiological cut-off (ECOFF); and ciprofloxacin which is displaying a similar shift in MICs as observed for azithromycin. In 2019, two isolates displayed ceftriaxone resistance, but both isolates had MICs below the azithromycin ECOFF. Cefixime resistance (0.8%) was associated with patient sex, with resistance higher in females compared with male heterosexuals and men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM). The number of countries reporting isolates with azithromycin MICs above the ECOFF increased from 76.9% (20/26) in 2016 to 92.3% (24/26) in 2019. Isolates with azithromycin MICs above the ECOFF (9.0%) were associated with pharyngeal infection sites. Following multivariable analysis, ciprofloxacin resistance remained associated with isolates from MSM and heterosexual males compared with females, the absence of a concurrent chlamydial infection, pharyngeal infection sites and patients ≥ 25 years of age. Conclusions: Resistance to ceftriaxone and cefixime remained uncommon in EU/EEA countries in 2019 with a significant decrease in cefixime resistance observed between 2016 and 2019. The significant increase in azithromycin "resistance" (azithromycin MICs above the ECOFF) threatens the effectiveness of the dual therapy (ceftriaxone + azithromycin), i.e., for ceftriaxone-resistant cases, currently recommended in many countries internationally and requires close monitoring.The study was funded by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (Framework Contract No. ECDC/2017/004). The funding body designed, initiated and coordinated the study as well as assisted in the interpretation of the data, development and final approval of the manuscriptS

Associations between antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance of Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates in European Union/European Economic Area and patients' gender, sexual orientation and anatomical site of infection, 2009-2016.

BACKGROUND: The emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Neisseria gonorrhoeae, nationally and internationally, is a serious threat to the management and control of gonorrhoea. Limited and conflicting data regarding the epidemiological drivers of gonococcal AMR internationally have been published. We examined the antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance of gonococcal isolates (n = 15,803) collected across 27 European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries in 2009-2016, in conjunction to epidemiological and clinical data of the corresponding patients, to elucidate associations between antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance and patients' gender, sexual orientation and anatomical site of infection. METHODS: In total, 15,803 N. gonorrhoeae isolates from the European Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programme (Euro-GASP), 2009-2016, were examined. Associations between gonococcal susceptibility/resistance and patients' gender, sexual orientation and anatomical site of infection were investigated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Statistical significance was determined by Pearson χ2-test or Fisher's exact test with two-tailed p-values of < 0.05 indicating significance. RESULTS: The overall gonococcal resistance from 2009 to 2016 was 51.7% (range during the years: 46.5-63.5%), 7.1% (4.5-13.2%), 4.3% (1.8-8.7%), and 0.2% (0.0-0.5%) to ciprofloxacin, azithromycin, cefixime, and ceftriaxone, respectively. The level of resistance combined with decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone was 10.2% (5.7-15.5%). Resistance to cefixime and ciprofloxacin, and resistance combined with decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone were positively associated with urogenital infections and heterosexual males, males with sexual orientation not reported and females (except for ciprofloxacin), i.e. when compared to men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM). Azithromycin resistance was positively associated with heterosexual males, but no association was significant regarding anatomical site of infection. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, sexual orientation was the main variable associated with gonococcal AMR. Strongest positive associations were identified with heterosexual patients, particularly males, and not MSM. To provide evidence-based understanding and mitigate gonococcal AMR emergence and spread, associations between antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance and patients' gender, sexual orientation and anatomical site of infection need to be further investigated in different geographic settings. In general, these insights will support identification of groups at increased risk and targeted public health actions such as intensified screening, 3-site testing using molecular diagnostics, sexual contact tracing, and surveillance of treatment failures

Del genoma de un patogeno a una vacuna efectiva: la vacuna de cuatro componentes frente a los meningococos del serogrupo B.

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD), caused by the bacterium Neisseria meningitidis, entails significant mortality and morbidity. Disease incidence is highest in infants <1 year and young children globally. In Europe, N. meningitidis serogroup B is responsible for over 50% of overall IMD cases, whereas the majority of IMD cases in Latin America is caused either by serogroup B or C. The development of an effective vaccine against serogroup B has challenged the researchers for over half a century. Serogroup B capsular polysaccharide was an inappropriate vaccine antigen, and the success of outer membrane vesicle (OMV) vaccines was restricted to homologous bacterial strains. Reverse vaccinology led to the development of a 4-component meningococcal vaccine including three novel antigens, and OMVs (4CMenB). Each vaccine component has a different target. 4CMenB has been authorised based on its immunogenicity and safety data because the low disease incidence precluded formal clinical efficacy studies. Human serum bactericidal antibody (hSBA) assay tests functional antibodies in the serum of vaccinated individuals (i.e. the vaccine immunogenicity), and is the accepted correlate of protection. Vaccine strain coverage has been assessed both through hSBA assays and a more conservative method named Meningococcal Antigen Typing System (MATS). Effectiveness data of 4CMenB have been collected in the field since 2013. The vaccine proved effective in outbreak control in North America, and recent data from the introduction of the vaccine in the United Kingdom infant national immunisation programme reveal a vaccine effectiveness of 82.9% for the first two doses, with an acceptable safety profile

CXCL6 is an important paracrine factor in the pro-angiogenic human cardiac progenitor-like cell secretome

Studies in recent years have established that the principal effects in cardiac cell therapy are associated with paracrine/autocrine factors. We combined several complementary techniques to define human cardiac progenitor cell (CPC) secretome constituted by 914 proteins/genes; 51% of these are associated with the exosomal compartment. To define the set of proteins specifically or highly differentially secreted by CPC, we compared human mesenchymal stem cells and dermal fibroblasts; the study defined a group of growth factors, cytokines and chemokines expressed at high to medium levels by CPC. Among them, IL-1, GROa (CXCL1), CXCL6 (GCP2) and IL-8 are examples whose expression was confirmed by most techniques used. ELISA showed that CXCL6 is significantly overexpressed in CPC conditioned medium (CM) (18- to 26-fold) and western blot confirmed expression of its receptors CXCR1 and CXCR2. Addition of anti-CXCL6 completely abolished migration in CPC-CM compared with anti-CXCR2, which promoted partial inhibition, and anti-CXCR1, which was inefficient. Anti-CXCL6 also significantly inhibited CPC CM angiogenic activity. In vivo evaluation also supported a relevant role for angiogenesis. Altogether, these results suggest a notable angiogenic potential in CPC-CM and identify CXCL6 as an important paracrine factor for CPC that signals mainly through CXCR2.This study was supported by funding from the European Commission (HEALTH-2009_242038) and by grants from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (SAF2012-34327 and SAF2015-70882-R to AB and BIO2012-37926 and BIO2015-67580-P to JV), the Research Program of the Comunidad Autónoma de Madrid (S2010/BMD-2420) and the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (RETICS-RD12/0019/0018 to AB and RETICS-RD12/0042/0056 to JV).S

Surgical treatment for colorectal cancer: Analysis of the influence of an enhanced recovery programme on long-term oncological outcomes-a study protocol for a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

Introduction The evidence currently available from enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) programmes concerns their benefits in the immediate postoperative period, but there is still very little evidence as to whether their correct implementation benefits patients in the long term. The working hypothesis here is that, due to the lower response to surgical aggression and lower rates of postoperative complications, ERAS protocols can reduce colorectal cancer-related mortality. The main objective of this study is to analyse the impact of an ERAS programme for colorectal cancer on 5-year survival. As secondary objectives, we propose to analyse the weight of each of the predefined items in the oncological results as well as the quality of life. Methods and analysis A multicentre prospective cohort study was conducted in patients older than 18 years of age who are scheduled to undergo surgery for colorectal cancer. The study involved 12 hospitals with an implemented enhanced recovery protocol according to the guidelines published by the Spanish National Health Service. The intervention group includes patients with a minimum implementation level of 70%, and the control group includes those who fail to reach this level. Compliance will be studied using 18 key performance indicators, and the results will be analysed using cancer survival indicators, including overall survival, cancer-specific survival and relapse-free survival. The time to recurrence, perioperative morbidity and mortality, hospital stay and quality of life will also be studied, the latter using the validated EuroQol Five questionnaire. The propensity index method will be used to create comparable treatment and control groups, and a multivariate regression will be used to study each variable. The Kaplan-Meier estimator will be used to estimate survival and the log-rank test to make comparisons. A p value of less than 0.05 (two-tailed) will be considered to be significant. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval for this study was obtained from the Aragon Ethical Committee (C.P.-C.I. PI20/086) on 4 March 2020. The findings of this study will be submitted to peer-reviewed journals (BMJ Open, JAMA Surgery, Annals of Surgery, British Journal of Surgery). Abstracts will be submitted to relevant national and international meetings. Trial registration number NCT04305314

Europe-wide expansion and eradication of multidrug-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae lineages: a genomic surveillance study

Background: Genomic surveillance using quality-assured whole-genome sequencing (WGS) together with epidemiological and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) data is essential to characterise the circulating Neisseria gonorrhoeae lineages and their association to patient groups (defined by demographic and epidemiological factors). In 2013, the European gonococcal population was characterised genomically for the first time. We describe the European gonococcal population in 2018 and identify emerging or vanishing lineages associated with AMR and epidemiological characteristics of patients, to elucidate recent changes in AMR and gonorrhoea epidemiology in Europe. Methods: We did WGS on 2375 gonococcal isolates from 2018 (mainly Sept 1-Nov 30) in 26 EU and EEA countries. Molecular typing and AMR determinants were extracted from quality-checked genomic data. Association analyses identified links between genomic lineages, AMR, and epidemiological data. Findings: Azithromycin-resistant N gonorrhoeae (8·0% [191/2375] in 2018) is rising in Europe due to the introduction or emergence and subsequent expansion of a novel N gonorrhoeae multi-antigen sequence typing (NG-MAST) genogroup, G12302 (132 [5·6%] of 2375; N gonorrhoeae sequence typing for antimicrobial resistance [NG-STAR] clonal complex [CC]168/63), carrying a mosaic mtrR promoter and mtrD sequence and found in 24 countries in 2018. CC63 was associated with pharyngeal infections in men who have sex with men. Susceptibility to ceftriaxone and cefixime is increasing, as the resistance-associated lineage, NG-MAST G1407 (51 [2·1%] of 2375), is progressively vanishing since 2009-10. Interpretation: Enhanced gonococcal AMR surveillance is imperative worldwide. WGS, linked to epidemiological and AMR data, is essential to elucidate the dynamics in gonorrhoea epidemiology and gonococcal populations as well as to predict AMR. When feasible, WGS should supplement the national and international AMR surveillance programmes to elucidate AMR changes over time. In the EU and EEA, increasing low-level azithromycin resistance could threaten the recommended ceftriaxone-azithromycin dual therapy, and an evidence-based clinical azithromycin resistance breakpoint is needed. Nevertheless, increasing ceftriaxone susceptibility, declining cefixime resistance, and absence of known resistance mutations for new treatments (zoliflodacin, gepotidacin) are promising.This study was supported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, the Centre for Genomic Pathogen Surveillance, the Li Ka Shing Foundation (Big Data Institute, University of Oxford), the Wellcome Genome Campus, the Foundation for Medical Research at Örebro University Hospital, and grants from Wellcome (098051 and 099202). LSB was funded by Conselleria de Sanitat Universal i Salut Pública, Generalitat Valenciana (Plan GenT CDEI-06/20-B), Valencia, Spain, and Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (PID2020–120113RA-I00), Spain, at the time of analysing and writing this manuscript.S

Increase of invasive meningococcal serogroup W disease in Europe, 2013 to 2017

Background: The total incidence of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in Europe has been declining in recent years; however, a rising incidence due to serogroup W (MenW), predominantly sequence type 11 (ST-11), clonal complex 11 (cc11), was reported in some European countries. Aim: The aim of this study was to compile the most recent laboratory surveillance data on MenW IMD from several European countries to assess recent trends in Europe. Methods: In this observational, retrospective study, IMD surveillance data collected from 2013–17 by national reference laboratories and surveillance units from 13 European countries were analysed using descriptive statistics. Results: The overall incidence of IMD has been stable during the study period. Incidence of MenW IMD per 100,000 population (2013: 0.03; 2014: 0.05; 2015: 0.08; 2016: 0.11; 2017: 0.11) and the proportion of this serogroup among all invasive cases (2013: 5% (116/2,216); 2014: 9% (161/1,761); 2015: 13% (271/2,074); 2016: 17% (388/2,222); 2017: 19% (393/2,112)) continuously increased. The most affected countries were England, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Sweden. MenW was more frequent in older age groups (≥ 45 years), while the proportion in children (< 15 years) was lower than in other age groups. Of the culture-confirmed MenW IMD cases, 80% (615/767) were caused by hypervirulent cc11. Conclusion: During the years 2013–17, an increase in MenW IMD, mainly caused by MenW cc11, was observed in the majority of European countries. Given the unpredictable nature of meningococcal spread and the epidemiological potential of cc11, European countries may consider preventive strategies adapted to their contexts.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio