MOSFiT: Modular open source fitter for transients

Much of the progress made in time-domain astronomy is accomplished by relating observational multi-wavelength time series data to models derived from our understanding of physical laws. This goal is typically accomplished by dividing the task in two: collecting data (observing), and constructing models to represent that data (theorizing). Owing to the natural tendency for specialization, a disconnect can develop between the best available theories and the best available data, potentially delaying advances in our understanding new classes of transients. We introduce MOSFiT: the Modular Open-Source Fitter for Transients, a Python-based package that downloads transient datasets from open online catalogs (e.g., the Open Supernova Catalog), generates Monte Carlo ensembles of semi-analytical light curve fits to those datasets and their associated Bayesian parameter posteriors, and optionally delivers the fitting results back to those same catalogs to make them available to the rest of the community. MOSFiT is designed to help bridge the gap between observations and theory in time-domain astronomy; in addition to making the application of existing models and creation of new models as simple as possible, MOSFiT yields statistically robust predictions for transient characteristics, with a standard output format that includes all the setup information necessary to reproduce a given result. As large-scale surveys such as LSST discover entirely new classes of transients, tools such as MOSFiT will be critical for enabling rapid comparison of models against data in statistically consistent, reproducible, and scientifically beneficial ways

Trends in caesarean delivery by country and wealth quintile: cross-sectional surveys in southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To examine temporal trends in caesarean delivery rates in southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, by country and wealth quintile. METHODS: Cross-sectional data were extracted from the results of 80 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 26 countries in southern Asia or sub-Saharan Africa. Caesarean delivery rates were evaluated - as percentages of the deliveries that ended in live births - for each wealth quintile in each survey. The annual rates recorded for each country were then compared to see if they had increased over time. FINDINGS: Caesarean delivery rates had risen over time in all but 6 study countries but were consistently found to be lower than 5% in 18 of the countries and 10% or less in the other eight countries. Among the poorest 20% of the population, caesarean sections accounted for less than 1% and less than 2% of deliveries in 12 and 21 of the study countries, respectively. In each of 11 countries, the caesarean delivery rate in the poorest 40% of the population remained under 1%. In Chad, Ethiopia, Guinea, Madagascar, Mali, Mozambique, Niger and Nigeria, the rate remained under 1% in the poorest 80%. Compared with the 22 African study countries, the four study countries in southern Asia experienced a much greater rise in their caesarean delivery rates over time. However, the rates recorded among the poorest quintile in each of these countries consistently fell below 2%. CONCLUSION: Caesarean delivery rates among large sections of the population in sub-Saharan Africa are very low, probably because of poor access to such surgery

Models and simulations for the photometric lsst astronomical time series classification challenge (Plasticc)

We describe the simulated data sample for the "Photometric LSST Astronomical Time Series Classification Challenge" (PLAsTiCC), a publicly available challenge to classify transient and variable events that will be observed by the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), a new facility expected to start in the early 2020s. The challenge was hosted by Kaggle, ran from 2018 September 28 to 2018 December 17, and included 1,094 teams competing for prizes. Here we provide details of the 18 transient and variable source models, which were not revealed until after the challenge, and release the model libraries at this https URL. We describe the LSST Operations Simulator used to predict realistic observing conditions, and we describe the publicly available SNANA simulation code used to transform the models into observed fluxes and uncertainties in the LSST passbands (ugrizy). Although PLAsTiCC has finished, the publicly available models and simulation tools are being used within the astronomy community to further improve classification, and to study contamination in photometrically identified samples of type Ia supernova used to measure properties of dark energy. Our simulation framework will continue serving as a platform to improve the PLAsTiCC models, and to develop new models

Preconceptional factors associated with very low birthweight delivery in East and West Berlin: a case control study

BACKGROUND: Very low birthweight, i.e. a birthweight < 1500 g, is among the strongest determinants of infant mortality and childhood morbidity. To develop primary prevention approaches to VLBW birth and its sequelae, information is needed on the causes of preterm birth, their personal and social antecedents, and on conditions associated with very low birthweight. Despite the growing body of evidence linking sociodemographic variables with preterm delivery, little is known as to how this may be extrapolated to the risk of very low birthweight. METHODS: In 1992, two years after the German unification, we started to recruit two cohorts of very low birthweight infants and controls in East and West Berlin for a long-term neurodevelopmental study. The present analysis was undertaken to compare potential preconceptional risk factors for very low birthweight delivery in a case-control design including 166 mothers (82 East vs. 84 West Berlin) with very low birthweight delivery and 341 control mothers (166 East vs. 175 West). RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess the effects of various dichotomous parental covariates and their interaction with living in East or West Berlin. After backward variable selection, short maternal school education, maternal unemployment, single-room apartment, smoking, previous preterm delivery, and fetal loss emerged as significant main effect variables, together with living in West Berlin as positive effect modificator for single-mother status. CONCLUSION: Very low birthweight has been differentially associated with obstetrical history and indicators of maternal socioeconomic status in East and West Berlin. The ranking of these risk factors is under the influence of the political framework

SN 2015bn: A DETAILED MULTI-WAVELENGTH VIEW of A NEARBY SUPERLUMINOUS SUPERNOVA

We present observations of SN 2015bn (=PS15ae = CSS141223-113342+004332 = MLS150211-113342+004333), a Type I superluminous supernova (SLSN) at redshift z = 0.1136. As well as being one of the closest SLSNe I yet discovered, it is intrinsically brighter (${M}_{U}\approx -23.1$) and in a fainter galaxy (${M}_{B}\approx -16.0$) than other SLSNe at $z\sim 0.1$. We used this opportunity to collect the most extensive data set for any SLSN I to date, including densely sampled spectroscopy and photometry, from the UV to the NIR, spanning −50 to +250 days from optical maximum. SN 2015bn fades slowly, but exhibits surprising undulations in the light curve on a timescale of 30–50 days, especially in the UV. The spectrum shows extraordinarily slow evolution except for a rapid transformation between +7 and +20–30 days. No narrow emission lines from slow-moving material are observed at any phase. We derive physical properties including the bolometric luminosity, and find slow velocity evolution and non-monotonic temperature and radial evolution. A deep radio limit rules out a healthy off-axis gamma-ray burst, and places constraints on the pre-explosion mass loss. The data can be consistently explained by a $\gtrsim 10$ M ${}_{\odot }$ stripped progenitor exploding with $\sim {10}^{51}$ erg kinetic energy, forming a magnetar with a spin-down timescale of ~20 days (thus avoiding a gamma-ray burst) that reheats the ejecta and drives ionization fronts. The most likely alternative scenario—interaction with ~20 M ${}_{\odot }$ of dense, inhomogeneous circumstellar material—can be tested with continuing radio follow-up.S.J.S. acknowledges funding from the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)/ERC Grant agreement no [291222] and STFC grants ST/I001123/1 and ST/L000709/1. This work is based (in part) on observations collected at the European Organisation for Astronomical Research in the Southern Hemisphere, Chile as part of PESSTO, (the Public ESO Spectroscopic Survey for Transient Objects Survey) ESO program 188.D-3003, 191.D-0935. The Pan-STARRS1 Surveys (PS1) have been made possible through contributions of the Institute for Astronomy, the University of Hawaii, the Pan-STARRS Project Office, the Max-Planck Society and its participating institutes, the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, Heidelberg and the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics, Garching, The Johns Hopkins University, Durham University, the University of Edinburgh, Queen's University Belfast, the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, the Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope Network Incorporated, the National Central University of Taiwan, the Space Telescope Science Institute, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant No. NNX08AR22G issued through the Planetary Science Division of the NASA Science Mission Directorate, the National Science Foundation under Grant No. AST-1238877, the University of Maryland, and Eotvos Lorand University (ELTE). Operation of the Pan-STARRS1 telescope is supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant No. NNX12AR65G and Grant No. NNX14AM74G issued through the NEO Observation Program. Based on observations made with the Nordic Optical Telescope, operated by the Nordic Optical Telescope Scientific Association at the Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos, La Palma, Spain, of the Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias. A.G.-Y. is supported by the EU/FP7 via ERC grant No. 307260, the Quantum universe I-Core programme by the Israeli Committee for Planning and Budgeting and the ISF; by Minerva and ISF grants; by the Weizmann-UK "making connections" programme; and by the Kimmel and YeS awards. B.D.M. is supported by NSF grant AST-1410950 and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. Support for L.G. is provided by the Ministry of Economy, Development, and Tourism's Millennium Science Initiative through grant IC120009 awarded to The Millennium Institute of Astrophysics (MAS), and CONICYT through FONDECYT grant 3140566. This work was partly supported by the European Union FP7 programme through ERC grant number 320360. K.M. acknowledges support from the STFC through an Ernest Rutherford Fellowship. A.M. acknowledges funding from CNRS. Development of ASAS-SN has been supported by NSF grant AST-0908816 and CCAPP at the Ohio State University. ASAS-SN is supported by NSF grant AST-1515927, the Center for Cosmology and AstroParticle Physics (CCAPP) at OSU, the Mt. Cuba Astronomical Foundation, George Skestos, and the Robert Martin Ayers Sciences Fund. B.S. is supported by NASA through Hubble Fellowship grant HF-51348.001 awarded by the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., for NASA, under contract NAS 5-26555. C.S.K. is supported by NSF grants AST-1515876 and AST-1515927. T.W.-S.H. is supported by the DOE Computational Science Graduate Fellowship, grant number DE-FG02-97ER25308. V.A.V. is supported by a NSF Graduate Research Fellowship. P.S.C. is grateful for support provided by the NSF through the Graduate Research Fellowship Program, grant DGE1144152. P.B. is supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant No. DGE1144152. D.A.H., C.M., and G.H. are supported by NSF grant 1313484.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the Institute of Physics via http://dx.doi.org/10.3847/0004-637X/826/1/3

Alternative Complement Pathway Deregulation Is Correlated with Dengue Severity

BACKGROUND:The complement system, a key component that links the innate and adaptive immune responses, has three pathways: the classical, lectin, and alternative pathways. In the present study, we have analyzed the levels of various complement components in blood samples from dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) patients and found that the level of complement activation is associated with disease severity. METHODS AND RESULTS:Patients with DHF had lower levels of complement factor 3 (C3; p = 0.002) and increased levels of C3a, C4a and C5a (p<0.0001) when compared to those with the less severe form, DF. There were no significant differences between DF and DHF patients in the levels of C1q, immunocomplexes (CIC-CIq) and CRP. However, small but statistically significant differences were detected in the levels of MBL. In contrast, the levels of two regulatory proteins of the alternative pathway varied widely between DF and DHF patients: DHF patients had higher levels of factor D (p = 0.01), which cleaves factor B to yield the active (C3bBb) C3 convertase, and lower levels of factor H (p = 0.03), which inactivates the (C3bBb) C3 convertase, than did DF patients. When we considered the levels of factors D and H together as an indicator of (C3bBb) C3 convertase regulation, we found that the plasma levels of these regulatory proteins in DHF patients favored the formation of the (C3bBb) C3 convertase, whereas its formation was inhibited in DF patients (p<0.0001). CONCLUSION:The data suggest that an imbalance in the levels of regulatory factors D and H is associated with an abnormal regulation of complement activity in DHF patients

The Dopamine D3 Receptor Knockout Mouse Mimics Aging-Related Changes in Autonomic Function and Cardiac Fibrosis

Blood pressure increases with age, and dysfunction of the dopamine D3 receptor has been implicated in the pathogenesis of hypertension. To evaluate the role of the D3 receptor in aging-related hypertension, we assessed cardiac structure and function in differently aged (2 mo, 1 yr, 2 yr) wild type (WT) and young (2 mo) D3 receptor knockout mice (D3KO). In WT, systolic and diastolic blood pressures and rate-pressure product (RPP) significantly increased with age, while heart rate significantly decreased. Blood pressure values, heart rate and RPP of young D3KO were significantly elevated over age-matched WT, but similar to those of the 2 yr old WT. Echocardiography revealed that the functional measurements of ejection fraction and fractional shortening decreased significantly with age in WT and that they were significantly smaller in D3KO compared to young WT. Despite this functional change however, cardiac morphology remained similar between the age-matched WT and D3KO. Additional morphometric analyses confirmed an aging-related increase in left ventricle (LV) and myocyte cross-sectional areas in WT, but found no difference between age-matched young WT and D3KO. In contrast, interstitial fibrosis, which increased with age in WT, was significantly elevated in the D3KO over age-matched WT, and similar to 2 yr old WT. Western analyses of myocardial homogenates revealed significantly increased levels of pro- and mature collagen type I in young D3KO. Column zymography revealed that activities of myocardial MMP-2 and MMP-9 increased with age in WTs, but in D3KO, only MMP-9 activity was significantly increased over age-matched WTs. Our data provide evidence that the dopamine D3 receptor has a critical role in the emergence of aging-related cardiac fibrosis, remodeling, and dysfunction

A prospective cohort study to assess seroprevalence, incidence, knowledge, attitudes and practices, willingness to pay for vaccine and related risk factors in dengue in a high incidence setting

Abstract Background Dengue is one of the most important vector-borne diseases in the world, causing significant morbidity and economic impact. In Colombia, dengue is a major public health problem. Departments of La Guajira, Cesar and Magdalena are dengue endemic areas. The objective of this research is to determine the seroprevalence and the incidence of dengue virus infection in the participating municipalities from these Departments, and also establish the association between individual and housing factors and vector indices with seroprevalence and incidence. We will also assess knowledge, attitudes and practices, and willingness-to-pay for dengue vaccine. Methods A cohort study will be assembled with a clustered multistage sampling in 11 endemic municipalities. Approximately 1000 homes will be visited to enroll people older than one year who living in these areas, who will be followed for 1 year. Dengue virus infections will be evaluated using IgG indirect ELISA and IgM and IgG capture ELISA. Additionally, vector indices will be measured, and adult mosquitoes will be captured with aspirators. Ovitraps will be used for continuous estimation of vector density. Discussion This research will generate necessary knowledge to design and implement strategies with a multidimensional approach that reduce dengue morbidity and mortality in La Guajira and other departments from Colombian Caribbean