Regional analysis of runoff thresholds behaviour in Southern Italy based on theoretically derived distributions

The analysis of runoff thresholds and, more in general, the identification of main mechanisms of runoff generation controlling the flood frequency distribution is investigated, by means of theoretically derived flood frequency distributions, in the framework of regional analysis. Two nested theoretically-derived distributions are fitted to annual maximum flood series recorded in several basins of Southern Italy. Results are exploited in order to investigate heterogeneities and homogeneities and to obtain useful information for improving the available methods for regional analysis of flood frequency

Flood quantiles estimation based on theoretically derived distributions: regional analysis in Southern Italy

A regional probabilistic model for the estimation of medium-high return period flood quantiles is presented. The model is based on the use of theoretically derived probability distributions of annual maximum flood peaks (DDF). The general model is called TCIF (Two-Component IF model) and encompasses two different threshold mechanisms associated with ordinary and extraordinary events, respectively. Based on at-site calibration of this model for 33 gauged sites in Southern Italy, a regional analysis is performed obtaining satisfactory results for the estimation of flood quantiles for return periods of technical interest, thus suggesting the use of the proposed methodology for the application to ungauged basins. The model is validated by using a jack-knife cross-validation technique taking all river basins into consideration

Effects of runoff thresholds on flood frequency distributions

International audienceRunoff generation during extreme floods usually occurs whenever rainfall forcing exceeds a given threshold. In many cases, different thresholds may be identified as responsible of the hydrological losses during ordinary events or extraordinary events at the basin scale. Such thresholds are shown to be related to the dynamics of soil saturation of the river basin and to account for the high skewness of their annual flood distributions. In basins where ordinary floods are mostly due to a small portion of the surface which is particularly prone to produce runoff, depending on permeability of a river basin and its antecedent soil moisture conditions, severe rainfall may exceed a basin-wide soil storage threshold and produce the so-called outlier events responsible of the high skewness of floods distributions. In this context, the derived theoretical model based on the concept of variable contributing area to peak flow proposed by Iacobellis and Fiorentino (2000) was generalized with the aim of incorporating such kind of dynamics in the description of the phenomena. The work produced a new formulation of the derived distribution where the two runoff components are explicitly considered. The present work was validated by using as test site a group of basins belonging to Southern Italy and characterized by flood distributions with high skewness. The application of the proposed model provided a good fitting to the observed distributions. Moreover, model parameters were found to be strongly related to physiographic basin characteristics giving consistency to the modelling assumptions

Analysis on flood generation processes by means of a continuous simulation model

International audienceIn the present research, we exploited a continuous hydrological simulation to investigate on key variables responsible of flood peak formation. With this purpose, a distributed hydrological model (DREAM) is used in cascade with a rainfall generator (IRP-Iterated Random Pulse) to simulate a large number of extreme events providing insight into the main controls of flood generation mechanisms. Investigated variables are those used in theoretically derived probability distribution of floods based on the concept of partial contributing area (e.g. Iacobellis and Fiorentino, 2000). The continuous simulation model is used to investigate on the hydrological losses occurring during extreme events, the variability of the source area contributing to the flood peak and its lag-time. Results suggest interesting simplification for the theoretical probability distribution of floods according to the different climatic and geomorfologic environments. The study is applied to two basins located in Southern Italy with different climatic characteristics

Runoff thresholds in derived flood frequency distributions

In general, different mechanisms may be identified as responsible of runoff generation during ordinary events or extraordinary events at the basin scale. In a simplified scheme these mechanisms may be represented by different runoff thresholds. In this context, the derived flood frequency model, based on the effect of partial contributing areas on peak flow, proposed by Iacobellis and Fiorentino (2000), was generalized by providing a new formulation of the derived distribution where two runoff components are explicitly considered. The model was tested on a group of basins in Southern Italy characterized by annual maximum flood distributions highly skewed. The application of the proposed model provided good results in terms of descriptive ability. Model parameters were also found to be well correlated with geomorphological basin descriptors. Two different threshold mechanisms, associated respectively to ordinary and extraordinary events, were identified. In fact, we found that ordinary floods are mostly due to rainfall events exceeding a threshold infiltration rate in a small source area, while the so-called outlier events, responsible of the high skewness of flood distributions, are triggered when severe rainfalls exceed a threshold storage in a large portion of the basin

On the use of AMSU-based products for the description of soil water content at basin scale

Abstract. Characterizing the dynamics of soil moisture fields is a key issue in hydrology, offering a strategy to improve our understanding of complex climate-soil-vegetation interactions. Besides in-situ measurements and hydrological models, soil moisture dynamics can be inferred by analyzing data acquired by sensors on board of airborne and/or satellite platforms. In this work, we investigated the use of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (NOAA-AMSU-A) radiometer for the remote characterization of soil water content. To this aim, a field measurement campaign, lasted about three months (3 March 2010–18 May 2010), was carried out using a portable time-domain reflectometer (TDR) to get soil water content measures over five different locations within an experimental basin of 32.5 km2, located in the South of Italy. In detail, soil moisture measurements were carried out systematically at the times of satellite overpasses, over two square areas of 400 m2, a triangular area of 200 m2 and two transects of 60 and 170 m, respectively. Each monitored site is characterized by different land covers and soil textures, to account for spatial heterogeneity of land surface. Afterwards, a more extensive comparison (i.e. analyzing a 5 yr data time series) was made using soil moisture simulated by a hydrological model. Measured and modeled soil moisture data were compared with two AMSU-based indices: the Surface Wetness Index (SWI) and the Soil Wetness Variation Index (SWVI). Both time series of indices have been filtered by means of an exponential filter to account for the fact that microwave sensors only provide information at the skin surface. This allowed to understand the ability of each satellite-based index to account for soil moisture dynamics and to understand its performances under different conditions. As a general remark, the comparison shows a higher ability of the filtered SWI to describe the general trend of soil moisture, while the SWVI can capture soil moisture variations with a precision that increases at the higher values of SWVI

Digital dermoscopic changes during follow-up of de-novo and nevus-associated melanoma: a cohort study

Background: Nevus-associated melanoma (NAM) has been regarded as a distinct biological entity from de-novo melanoma (DNM); however, static dermoscopy often fails in differentiating these entities. Digital dermoscopic monitoring allows to identify dynamic changes occurring during follow-up; this may improve diagnostic accuracy and potentially our knowledge on NAM biology. We aimed to define main independent factors associated with NAM diagnosis and those influencing follow-up time in a population of melanomas excised at follow-up. Methods: A cohort of melanomas excised at follow-up was retrospectively and consecutively selected. NAMs and DNMs were compared according to baseline features and main dermoscopic changes occurring during follow-up. Univariate and multivariable logistic and Cox's regression analysis were performed to respectively define factors associated with NAM diagnosis and those influencing the risk for excision. Results: Eighty-six melanomas were enrolled, of which 21 (24.4%) were nevus-associated. During follow-up NAMs mainly underwent atypical network modifications (47.6%), followed by inverse network (28.6%) and dermoscopic island (23.8%) worsening or appearance. DNMs were also mainly characterized by atypical network modifications (47.7%), however, a significant proportion of cases underwent irregular pigmentation/dots/globules or regression changes (29.2%), which were rarely seen among NAMs. Furthermore, both multivariable logistic and Cox's regression analysis demonstrated a significant association between NAM and a longer follow-up. Conclusions: We demonstrated that among melanomas excised at follow-up, different patterns of dermoscopic changes may be found between NAMs and DNMs. This finding, together with the association of NAM with a longer follow-up time, supports the hypothesis of different biological behavior of these two entities

System for detecting and estimating concentrations of gas or liquid analytes

A sensor system for detecting and estimating concentrations of various gas or liquid analytes. In an embodiment, the resistances of a set of sensors are measured to provide a set of responses over time where the resistances are indicative of gas or liquid sorption, depending upon the sensors. A concentration vector for the analytes is estimated by satisfying a criterion of goodness using the set of responses. Other embodiments are described and claimed

Search for extended gamma-ray emission from the Virgo galaxy cluster with Fermi-LAT

Galaxy clusters are one of the prime sites to search for dark matter (DM) annihilation signals. Depending on the substructure of the DM halo of a galaxy cluster and the cross sections for DM annihilation channels, these signals might be detectable by the latest generation of $\gamma$-ray telescopes. Here we use three years of Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) data, which are the most suitable for searching for very extended emission in the vicinity of nearby Virgo galaxy cluster. Our analysis reveals statistically significant extended emission which can be well characterized by a uniformly emitting disk profile with a radius of 3\deg that moreover is offset from the cluster center. We demonstrate that the significance of this extended emission strongly depends on the adopted interstellar emission model (IEM) and is most likely an artifact of our incomplete description of the IEM in this region. We also search for and find new point source candidates in the region. We then derive conservative upper limits on the velocity-averaged DM pair annihilation cross section from Virgo. We take into account the potential $\gamma$-ray flux enhancement due to DM sub-halos and its complex morphology as a merging cluster. For DM annihilating into $b\overline{b}$, assuming a conservative sub-halo model setup, we find limits that are between 1 and 1.5 orders of magnitude above the expectation from the thermal cross section for $m_{\mathrm{DM}}\lesssim100\,\mathrm{GeV}$. In a more optimistic scenario, we exclude $\langle \sigma v \rangle\sim3\times10^{-26}\,\mathrm{cm^{3}\,s^{-1}}$ for $m_{\mathrm{DM}}\lesssim40\,\mathrm{GeV}$ for the same channel. Finally, we derive upper limits on the $\gamma$-ray-flux produced by hadronic cosmic-ray interactions in the inter cluster medium. We find that the volume-averaged cosmic-ray-to-thermal pressure ratio is less than $\sim6\%$.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, 4 tables, accepted for publication in ApJ; corresponding authors: T. Jogler, S. Zimmer & A. Pinzk