Statistical characteristics of surrogate data based on geophysical measurements

In this study, the statistical properties of a range of measurements are compared with those of their surrogate time series. Seven different records are studied, amongst others, historical time series of mean daily temperature, daily rain sums and runoff from two rivers, and cloud measurements. Seven different algorithms are used to generate the surrogate time series. The best-known method is the iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform (IAAFT) algorithm, which is able to reproduce the measured distribution as well as the power spectrum. Using this setup, the measurements and their surrogates are compared with respect to their power spectrum, increment distribution, structure functions, annual percentiles and return values. It is found that the surrogates that reproduce the power spectrum and the distribution of the measurements are able to closely match the increment distributions and the structure functions of the measurements, but this often does not hold for surrogates that only mimic the power spectrum of the measurement. However, even the best performing surrogates do not have asymmetric increment distributions, i.e., they cannot reproduce nonlinear dynamical processes that are asymmetric in time. Furthermore, we have found deviations of the structure functions on small scales

Who can wait for the future? A personality perspective

Who can wait for larger, delayed rewards rather than smaller, immediate ones? Delay discounting (DD) measures the rate at which subjective value of an outcome decreases as the length of time to obtaining it increases. Previous work has shown that greater DD predicts negative academic, social, and health outcomes. Yet, little is known about who is likely to engage in greater or less DD. Taking a personality perspective, in a large sample (N = 5,888), we found that greater DD was predicted by low openness and conscientiousness and higher extraversion and neuroticism. Smaller amounts were also discounted more than larger amounts; furthermore, amount magnified the effects of openness and neuroticism on DD. Our findings show that personality is one predictor of individual differences in DD-an important implication for intervention approaches targeted at DD. © The Author(s) 2013.Vaishali Mahalingam was supported by a ‘Cambridge Nehru Bursary’ from the Nehru Trust for Cambridge University. David Stillwell was supported by an ESRC studentship (ES/F021801/1). He also receives revenue as an owner of the ‘My Personality’ website. Michal Kosinski received funding from Boeing Corporation

Contrasting mechanisms of magma fragmentation during coeval magmatic and hydromagmatic activity: the Hverfjall Fires fissure eruption, Iceland

Growing evidence for significant magmatic vesiculation prior to magma-water interaction (MWI) has brought into question the use of ‘diagnostic’ features, such as low vesicularities and blocky morphologies, to identify hydromagmatic pyroclasts. We address this question by quantifying co-variations in particle size, shape and texture in both magmatic and hydromagmatic deposits from the Hverfjall Fires fissure eruption, Iceland. Overlapping vesicularity and bubble number density distributions measured in rapidly quenched magmatic and hydromagmatic pyroclasts indicate a shared initial history of bubble nucleation and growth, with substantial vesiculation prior to MWI. Hydromagmatic fragmentation occurred principally by brittle mechanisms, where the length scale and geometry of fracturing was controlled by the bubble population. This suggests that the elevated fragmentation efficiency of hydromagmatic deposits is driven, at least in part, by brittle disintegration of vesicular pyroclasts due to high thermal stress generated during rapid cooling. In this way, the shape and size distributions of hydromagmatic pyroclasts, both critical input parameters for ash dispersion models, are strongly influenced by the dynamics of vesiculation prior to MWI. This result underlines the need to analyse multiple grain-size fractions to characterise the balance between magmatic and hydromagmatic processes. During the Hverfjall Fires eruption, the external water supply was sufficient to maintain MWI throughout the eruption, with no evidence for progressive exhaustion of a water reservoir. We suggest that both the longevity and the spatial distribution of MWI were determined by the pre-existing regional hydrology and represent continuous interaction between a propagating dike and a strong groundwater flow system hosted within permeable basalt lavas

Learning to Extract Motion from Videos in Convolutional Neural Networks

This paper shows how to extract dense optical flow from videos with a convolutional neural network (CNN). The proposed model constitutes a potential building block for deeper architectures to allow using motion without resorting to an external algorithm, \eg for recognition in videos. We derive our network architecture from signal processing principles to provide desired invariances to image contrast, phase and texture. We constrain weights within the network to enforce strict rotation invariance and substantially reduce the number of parameters to learn. We demonstrate end-to-end training on only 8 sequences of the Middlebury dataset, orders of magnitude less than competing CNN-based motion estimation methods, and obtain comparable performance to classical methods on the Middlebury benchmark. Importantly, our method outputs a distributed representation of motion that allows representing multiple, transparent motions, and dynamic textures. Our contributions on network design and rotation invariance offer insights nonspecific to motion estimation

Approaches for improving cutting processes and machine too in re-contouring

Re-contouring in the repair process of aircraft engine blades and vanes is a crucial task. Highest demands are made on the geometrical accuracy as well as on the machined surface of the part. Complexity rises even more due to the unique part characteristic originating from the operation and repair history. This requires well-designed processes and machine tool technologies. In this paper, approaches for coping with these challenges and improving the re-contouring process are described and discussed. This includes an advanced process simulation with its capabilities to accurately depict different material areas and predict process forces. Beyond, experimental investigations on workpiece-tooldeflection are presented. Finally, a machine tool prototype with a novel electromagnetic guiding system is introduced and the benefits of this technology in the field of repair are outlined.DFG/CRC/87

Impact of the lateral blast on the spatial pattern and grain size characteristics of the 18 May 1980 Mount St. Helens fallout deposit

International audienceThe 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens started with a lateral blast that fed a pyroclastic surge, which then uplifted to form a co-blast plume. Thirty minutes later, Plinian activity started at the vent and fluctuated in intensity for ~9 h. The resulting fallout deposit, documented to > 600 km from vent, presents some striking features: (1) displacement of the overall deposit to the north of the vent, (2) a secondary thickness and mass maximum at ~300 km from vent, (3) a total grain size distribution dominated by fine ash (62 wt % of the deposit < 63 μm), and (4) individual grain size distributions that vary dramatically in the crosswind direction from strongly bimodal in the south to skewed unimodal in the north. Results from a new deconvolution of the individual grain size distributions show that they are a combination of a coarse subpopulation that decreases in size with distance from vent and a constant fine subpopulation with a mean of ∼15 μm. Relative proportions of each subpopulation vary asymmetrically in the crosswind directions, with the fine subpopulation preponderant toward the north and the coarse one dominating the south of the deposit, both reach their absolute maxima in mass on the deposit axis. Componentry analyses of selected samples show that blast-derived material is greatly enriched toward the north of the deposit. These results indicate that the co-blast plume dispersed fine-grained material over great distances and dominated the fine subpopulation. Comparison with reanalysis data of atmospheric wind fields and satellite images of the spreading ash cloud suggests contrasting ash transport and depositional processes for the (early) co-blast plume and the (later) vent-derived Plinian plumes. The co-blast plume is displaced to the north; it had a high overshoot height, and eastward dispersion via strong winds low in the stratosphere (~10-15 km). The Plinian plumes were lower and dispersed most of the material to the southeast as the direction of high-velocity winds shifted just before the late climactic Plinian eruptive phase. Fine ash (fine subpopulation) was deposited continuously throughout the deposit, with an increase of sedimentation rate ~300 km from the vent where there is a secondary maximum in the deposit mass and thickness. Fine ash probably settled by a combination of enhanced sedimentation mechanisms, including not only aggregation but also gravitational convective instabilities of cloud base, hydrometeor formation and destruction, and entrainment of small particles by larger ones. Finally, we show that half of the deposit (by mass) in the medial area was deposited by the co-blast plume, and that a significant proportion of the Mount St. Helens fallout deposit is nonjuvenile, which has implications for the magmatic budget of this eruption

The role of the spin in quasiparticle interference

Quasiparticle interference patterns measured by scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) can be used to study the local electronic structure of metal surfaces and high temperature superconductors. Here, we show that even in non-magnetic systems the spin of the quasiparticles can have a profound effect on the interference patterns. On Bi(110), where the surface state bands are not spin-degenerate, the patterns are not related to the dispersion of the electronic states in a simple way. In fact, the features which are expected for the spin-independent situation are absent and the observed interference patterns can only be interpreted by taking spin-conserving scattering events into account.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

Current Helicity and Twist as Two Indicators of The Mirror Asymmetry of solar Magnetic Fields

A comparison between the two tracers of magnetic field mirror asymmetry in solar active regions, twist and current helicity, is presented. It is shown that for individual active regions these tracers do not possess visible similarity while averaging by time over the solar cycle, or by latitude, reveals similarities in their behaviour. The main property of the dataset is anti-symmetry over the solar equator. Considering the evolution of helical properties over the solar cycle we find signatures of a possible sign change at the beginning of the cycle, though more systematic observational data are required for a definite confirmation. We discuss the role of both tracers in the context of the solar dynamo theory.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figure

Turbulence in the Solar Atmosphere: Manifestations and Diagnostics via Solar Image Processing

Intermittent magnetohydrodynamical turbulence is most likely at work in the magnetized solar atmosphere. As a result, an array of scaling and multi-scaling image-processing techniques can be used to measure the expected self-organization of solar magnetic fields. While these techniques advance our understanding of the physical system at work, it is unclear whether they can be used to predict solar eruptions, thus obtaining a practical significance for space weather. We address part of this problem by focusing on solar active regions and by investigating the usefulness of scaling and multi-scaling image-processing techniques in solar flare prediction. Since solar flares exhibit spatial and temporal intermittency, we suggest that they are the products of instabilities subject to a critical threshold in a turbulent magnetic configuration. The identification of this threshold in scaling and multi-scaling spectra would then contribute meaningfully to the prediction of solar flares. We find that the fractal dimension of solar magnetic fields and their multi-fractal spectrum of generalized correlation dimensions do not have significant predictive ability. The respective multi-fractal structure functions and their inertial-range scaling exponents, however, probably provide some statistical distinguishing features between flaring and non-flaring active regions. More importantly, the temporal evolution of the above scaling exponents in flaring active regions probably shows a distinct behavior starting a few hours prior to a flare and therefore this temporal behavior may be practically useful in flare prediction. The results of this study need to be validated by more comprehensive works over a large number of solar active regions.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figure