Estimating Density Dependence, Environmental Variance, and Long-Term Selection on a Stage-Structured Life History

A method for analyzing long-term demographic data on density-dependent stage-structured populations in a stochastic environment is derived to facilitate comparison of populations and species with different life histories. We assume that a weighted sum of stage abundances, N, exerts density dependence on stage-specific vital rates of survival and reproduction and that N has a small or moderate coefficient of variation. The dynamics of N are approximated as a univariate stochastic process governed by three key parameters: the density-independent growth rate, the net density dependence, and environmental variance in the life history. We show how to estimate the relative weighs of stages in N and the key parameters. Life history evolution represents a stochastic maximization of a simple function of the key parameters. The long-term selection gradient on the life history can be expressed as a vector of sensitivities of this function with respect to density-independent, density-dependent, and stochastic components of the vital rates. To illustrate the method, we analyze 38 years of demographic data on a great tit population, estimating the key parameters, which accurately predict the observed mean, coefficient of variation, and fluctuation rate of N; we also evaluate the long-term selection gradient on the life history.</p

Species richness and evenness of European bird communities show differentiated responses to measures of productivity

Understanding patterns of species diversity is crucial for ecological research and conservation, and this understanding may be improved by studying patterns in the two components of species diversity, species richness and evenness of abundance of species. Variation in species richness and evenness has previously been linked to variation in total abundance of communities as well as productivity gradients. Exploring both components of species diversity is essential because these components could be unrelated or driven by different mechanisms. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between species richness and evenness in European bird communities along an extensive latitudinal gradient. We examined their relationships with latitude and Net Primary Productivity, which determines energy and matter availability for heterotrophs, as well as their responses to territory densities (i.e. the number of territories per area) and community biomass (i.e. the bird biomass per area). We applied a multivariate Poisson log-normal distribution to unique long-term, high-quality time-series data, allowing us to estimate species richness of the community as well as the variance of this distribution, which acts as an inverse measure of evenness. Evenness in the distribution of abundance of species in the community was independent of species richness. Species richness increased with increasing community biomass, as well as with increasing density. Since both measures of abundance were explained by NPP, species richness was partially explained by energy-diversity theory (i.e. the more energy, the more species sustained by the ecosystem). However, species richness did not increase linearly with NPP but rather showed a unimodal relationship. Evenness was not explained either by productivity nor by any of the aspects of community abundance. This study highlights the importance of considering both richness and evenness to gain a better understanding of variation in species diversity. We encourage the study of both components of species diversity in future studies, as well as use of simulation studies to verify observed patterns between richness and evenness

Effects of density, species interactions, and environmental stochasticity on the dynamics of British bird communities

Our knowledge of the factors affecting species abundances is mainly based on time-series analyses of a few well-studied species at single or few localities, but we know little about whether results from such analyses can be extrapolated to the community level. We apply a joint species distribution model to long-term time-series data on British bird communities to examine the relative contribution of intra- and interspecific density dependence at different spatial scales, as well as the influence of environmental stochasticity, to spatiotemporal interspecific variation in abundance. Intraspecific density dependence has the major structuring effect on these bird communities. In addition, environmental fluctuations affect spatiotemporal differences in abundance. In contrast, species interactions had a minor impact on variation in abundance. Thus, important drivers of single-species dynamics are also strongly affecting dynamics of communities in time and space

Environmental change reduces body condition, but not population growth, in a high‐arctic herbivore

Environmental change influences fitness‐related traits and demographic rates, which in herbivores are often linked to resource‐driven variation in body condition. Coupled body condition‐demographic responses may therefore be important for herbivore population dynamics in fluctuating environments, such as the Arctic. We applied a transient Life‐Table Response Experiment (‘transient‐LTRE’) to demographic data from Svalbard barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis), to quantify their population‐dynamic responses to changes in body mass. We partitioned contributions from direct and delayed demographic and body condition‐mediated processes to variation in population growth. Declines in body condition (1980–2017), which positively affected reproduction and fledgling survival, had negligible consequences for population growth. Instead, population growth rates were largely reproduction‐driven, in part through positive responses to rapidly advancing spring phenology. The virtual lack of body condition‐mediated effects indicates that herbivore population dynamics may be more resilient to changing body condition than previously expected, with implications for their persistence under environmental change

Temperature synchronizes temporal variation in laying dates across European hole-nesting passerines

Identifying the environmental drivers of variation in fitness-related traits is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. Temporal fluctuations of these environmental drivers are often synchronized at large spatial scales. Yet, whether synchronous environmental conditions can generate spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values (i.e., correlated temporal trait fluctuations across populations) is poorly understood. Using data from long-term monitored populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus, n = 31), great tits (Parus major, n = 35), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca, n = 20) across Europe, we assessed the influence of two local climatic variables (mean temperature and mean precipitation in February-May) on spatial synchrony in three fitness-related traits: laying date, clutch size, and fledgling number. We found a high degree of spatial synchrony in laying date but a lower degree in clutch size and fledgling number for each species. Temperature strongly influenced spatial synchrony in laying date for resident blue tits and great tits but not for migratory pied flycatchers. This is a relevant finding in the context of environmental impacts on populations because spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values among populations may influence fluctuations in vital rates or population abundances. If environmentally induced spatial synchrony in fitness-related traits increases the spatial synchrony in vital rates or population abundances, this will ultimately increase the risk of extinction for populations and species. Assessing how environmental conditions influence spatiotemporal variation in trait values improves our mechanistic understanding of environmental impacts on populations

Boom and bust of a moose population – a call for integrated forest management

This is the postprint version of the article. The published article can be located at www.springerlink.comThere is increasing pressure to manage forests for multiple objectives, including ecosystem services and biodiversity, alongside timber production. However, few forests are currently co-managed for timber and wildlife, despite potential economic and conservation benefits. We present empirical data from a commercial Norway spruce ( Picea abies ) and Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris ) production system in southern Norway in which moose ( Alces alces ) are an important secondary product. Combining long-term hunting and forestry records, we identified temporal vari- ation in clear-felling over the past five decades, peaking in the 1970s. Herbicide treatment of regenerating stands and a fivefold increase in moose harvest has lead to a reduction in availability of successional forest per moose of [ 90 % since the 1960s. Field estimates showed that spraying with the herbicide glyphosate reduced forage availability by 60 and 96 % in summer and winter, respectively, 4 years after treatment. It also reduced moose use and habitat selection of young spruce stands compared with unsprayed stands. Together these lines of evidence suggest that forest man- agement led to an increase in moose carrying capacity during the 1970s and a subsequent decline thereafter. This is likely to have contributed to observed reductions in moose population productivity in southern Norway and is counter to sustainable resource management. We therefore call for better integration and long-term planning between forestry and wildlife management to minimise forest damage and the development of large fluctuations in ungulate populations

Annual variation in maternal age and calving date generate cohort effects in moose (Alces alces) body mass.

A general feature of the demography of large ungulates is that many demographic traits are dependent on female body mass at early ages. Thus, identifying the factors affecting body mass variation can give important mechanistic understanding of demographic processes. Here we relate individual variation in autumn and winter body mass of moose calves living at low density on an island in northern Norway to characteristics of their mother, and examine how these relationships are affected by annual variation in population density and climate. Body mass increased with increasing age of their mother, was lower for calves born late in the spring, decreased with litter size and was larger for males than for female calves. No residual effects of variation in density and climate were present after controlling for annual variation in mother age and calving date. The annual variation in adult female age structure and calving date explained a large part (71-75%) of the temporal variation in calf body mass. These results support the hypotheses that (a) body mass of moose calves are affected by qualities associated with mother age (e.g. body condition, calving date); and (b) populations living at low densities are partly buffered against temporal fluctuations in the environment

Spatial and temporal variation in the relative contribution of density dependence, climate variation and migration to fluctuations in the size of great tit populations

1. The aim of the present study is to model the stochastic variation in the size of five populations of great tit Parus major in the Netherlands, using a combination of individual-based demographic data and time series of population fluctuations. We will examine relative contribution of density-dependent effects, and variation in climate and winter food on local dynamics as well as on number of immigrants. 2. Annual changes in population size were strongly affected by temporal variation in number of recruits produced locally as well as by the number of immigrants. The number of individuals recruited from one breeding season to the next was mainly determined by the population size in year t, the beech crop index (BCI) in year t and the temperature during March–April in year t. The number of immigrating females in year t + 1 was also explained by the number of females present in the population in ye 3. By comparing predictions of the population model with the recorded number of females, the simultaneous modelling of local recruitment and immigration explained a large proportion of the annual variation in recorded population growth rates. 4. Environmental stochasticity especially caused by spring temperature and BCI did in general contribute more to annual fluctuations in population size than density-dependent effects. Similar effects of climate on local recruitment and immigration also caused covariation in temporal fluctuations of immigration and local production of recruits. 5. The effects of various variables in explaining fluctuations in population size were not independent, and the combined effect of the variables were generally non-additive. Thus, the effects of variables causing fluctuations in population size should not be considered separately because the total effect will be influenced by covariances among the explanatory variables. 6. Our results show that fluctuations in the environment affect local recruitment as well as annual fluctuations in the number of immigrants. This effect of environment on the interchange of individuals among populations is important for predicting effects of global climate change on the pattern of population fluctuations.