Digital ulcers predict a worse disease course in patients with systemic sclerosis

Objective: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a systemic autoimmune disease with high morbidity and significant mortality. There is a great need of predictors that would allow risk stratification of patients with SSc and ultimately initiation of treatment early enough to ensure optimal clinical results. In this study, we evaluated whether a history of digital ulcers (HDU) at presentation may be a predictor of vascular outcomes and of overall clinical worsening and death in patients with SSc. Methods: Patients from the EULAR Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) database, satisfying at inclusion the 1980 American College of Rheumatology classification criteria for SSc, who had a follow-up of at least 3 years since baseline or who have died, were included in the analysis. HDU at presentation as a predictor of disease worsening or death was evaluated by Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Results :3196 patients matched the inclusion criteria (male sex 13.2%, 33.4% diffuse subset). At presentation, 1092/3196 patients had an HDU (34.1%). In multivariable analysis adjusting for age, gender and all parameters considered potentially significant, HDU was predictive for the presence of active digital ulcers (DUs) at prospective visits (HR (95% CI)): 2.41(1.91 to 3.03), p<0.001, for an elevated systolic pulmonary arterial pressure on heart ultrasound (US-PAPs):1.36 (1.03 to 1.80), p=0.032, for any cardiovascular event (new DUs, elevated US-PAPs or LV failure):3.56 (2.26 to 5.62), p<0.001, and for death (1.53 (1.16 to 2.02), p=0.003). Conclusions :In patients with SSc, HDU at presentation predicts the occurrence of DUs at follow-up and is associated with cardiovascular worsening and decreased survival

Late skin fibrosis in systemic sclerosis: a study from the EUSTAR cohort

Objectives The early trajectory of skin fibrosis provides insights into the disease course of systemic sclerosis (SSc) including mortality; however, little is known about late skin fibrosis. The aims of our study were to ascertain the prevalence and characteristics of late skin fibrosis in SSc. Methods We developed and tested three conceptual scenarios of late (>5 years after first non-RP feature) skin fibrosis including new worsening of skin disease, and failure to improve after worsening within 5-year window. We defined skin worsening as change in modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥5 units or ≥25%. Using strict inclusion criteria including complete mRSS, we identified 1,043 (out of 19 115) patients within the EUSTAR database for our analysis. We further restricted analysis within 887 (out of 1043) patients who had lcSSc or dcSSc at baseline. Results One-fifth of patients among the whole cohort (n = 208/1043, 19.9%) experienced mRSS worsening, including in patients with lcSSc or dcSSc at baseline (n = 193/887, 21.8%). This was largely due to new skin worsening after the 5-year window or failure to improve with worsening within the 5-year window. Patients with lower baseline mRSS and lcSSc were more likely to develop late skin fibrosis. Anti-Scl-70 was associated with progression from baseline lcSSc to dcSSc, and anticentromere was protective. Conclusions Late skin fibrosis is not uncommon in SSc. We have identified different patterns relevant to clinical practice and trial design. Late skin fibrosis is a neglected manifestation of SSc and warrants further investigation including to determine clinical outcomes and optimal therapeutic strategy

Preliminary criteria for the very early diagnosis of systemic sclerosis: results of a Delphi Consensus Study from EULAR Scleroderma Trials and Research Group

OBJECTIVE: To identify a core set of preliminary items considered as important for the very early diagnosis of systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: A list of items provided by European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) Scleroderma Trial and Research(EUSTAR) centres were subjected to a Delphi exercise among 110 experts in the field of SSc. In round 1, experts were asked to choose the items they considered as the most important for the very early diagnosis of SSc. In round 2, experts were asked to reconsider the items accepted after the first stage. In round 3, the clinical relevance of selected items and their importance as measures that would lead to an early referral process were rated using appropriateness scores. RESULTS: Physicians from 85 EUSTAR centres participated in the study and provided an initial list of 121 items. After three Delphi rounds, the steering committee, with input from external experts, collapsed the 121 items into three domains containing seven items, developed as follows: skin domain (puffy fingers/puffy swollen digits turning into sclerodactily); vascular domain (Raynaud's phenomenon, abnormal capillaroscopy with scleroderma pattern) and laboratory domain (antinuclear, anticentromere and antitopoisomerase-I antibodies). Finally, the whole assembly of EUSTAR centres ratified with a majority vote the results in a final face-to-face meeting. CONCLUSION: The three Delphi rounds allowed us to identify the items considered by experts as necessary for the very early diagnosis of SSc. The validation of these items to establish diagnostic criteria is currently ongoing in a prospective observational cohort

Stratification in systemic sclerosis according to autoantibody status versus skin involvement: a study of the prospective EUSTAR cohort

Background The current subclassification of systemic sclerosis into cutaneous subtypes does not fully capture the heterogeneity of the disease. We aimed to compare the performances of stratification into LeRoy's cutaneous subtypes versus stratification by autoantibody status in systemic sclerosis. Methods For this cohort study, we assessed people with systemic sclerosis in the multicentre international European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) database. Individuals positive for systemic-sclerosis autoantibodies of two specificities were excluded, and remaining individuals were classified by cutaneous subtype, according to their systemic sclerosis-specific autoantibodies, or both. We assessed the performance of each model to predict overall survival, progression-free survival, disease progression, and different organ involvement. The three models were compared by use of the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic and the net reclassification improvement (NRI). Missing data were imputed. Findings We assessed the database on July 26, 2019. Of 16 939 patients assessed for eligibility, 10 711 patients were included: 1647 (15·4%) of 10 709 were male, 9062 (84·6%) were female, mean age was 54·4 (SD 13·8) years, and mean disease duration was 7·9 (SD 8·2) years. Information regarding cutaneous subtype was available for 10 176 participants and antibody data were available for 9643 participants. In the prognostic analysis, there was no difference in AUC for overall survival (0·82, 95% CI 0·81–0·84 for cutaneous only vs 0·84, 0·82–0·85 for antibody only vs 0·84, 0·83–0·86 for combined) or for progression-free survival (0·70, 0·69–0·71 vs 0·71, 0·70–0·72 vs 0·71, 0·70–0·72). However, at 4 years the NRI showed substantial improvement for the antibody-only model compared with the cutaneous-only model in prediction of overall survival (0·57, 0·46–0·71 for antibody only vs 0·29, 0·19–0·39 for cutaneous only) and disease progression (0·36, 0·29–0·46 vs 0·21, 0·14–0·28). The antibody-only model did better than the cutaneous-only model in predicting renal crisis (AUC 0·72, 0·70–0·74 for antibody only vs 0·66, 0·64–0·69 for cutaneous only) and lung fibrosis leading to restrictive lung function (AUC 0·76, 0·75–0·77 vs 0·71, 0·70–0·72). The combined model improved the prediction of digital ulcers and elevated systolic pulmonary artery pressure, but did poorly for cardiac involvement. Interpretation The autoantibody-only model outperforms cutaneous-only subsetting for risk stratifying people with systemic sclerosis in the EUSTAR cohort. Physicians should be aware of these findings at the time of decision making for patient management. Funding World Scleroderma Foundation