Quantifying Model Complexity via Functional Decomposition for Better Post-Hoc Interpretability

Post-hoc model-agnostic interpretation methods such as partial dependence plots can be employed to interpret complex machine learning models. While these interpretation methods can be applied regardless of model complexity, they can produce misleading and verbose results if the model is too complex, especially w.r.t. feature interactions. To quantify the complexity of arbitrary machine learning models, we propose model-agnostic complexity measures based on functional decomposition: number of features used, interaction strength and main effect complexity. We show that post-hoc interpretation of models that minimize the three measures is more reliable and compact. Furthermore, we demonstrate the application of these measures in a multi-objective optimization approach which simultaneously minimizes loss and complexity

Case management for the treatment of patients with major depression in general practices – rationale, design and conduct of a cluster randomized controlled trial – PRoMPT (Primary care Monitoring for depressive Patient's Trial) [ISRCTN66386086] – Study protocol

BACKGROUND: Depression is a disorder with high prevalence in primary health care and a significant burden of illness. The delivery of health care for depression, as well as other chronic illnesses, has been criticized for several reasons and new strategies to address the needs of these illnesses have been advocated. Case management is a patient-centered approach which has shown efficacy in the treatment of depression in highly organized Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) settings and which might also be effective in other, less structured settings. METHODS/DESIGN: PRoMPT (PRimary care Monitoring for depressive Patients Trial) is a cluster randomised controlled trial with General Practice (GP) as the unit of randomisation. The aim of the study is to evaluate a GP applied case-management for patients with major depressive disorder. 70 GPs were randomised either to intervention group or to control group with the control group delivering usual care. Each GP will include 10 patients suffering from major depressive disorder according to the DSM-IV criteria. The intervention group will receive treatment based on standardized guidelines and monthly telephone monitoring from a trained practice nurse. The nurse investigates the patient's status concerning the MDD criteria, his adherence to GPs prescriptions, possible side effects of medication, and treatment goal attainment. The control group receives usual care – including recommended guidelines. Main outcome measure is the cumulative score of the section depressive disorders (PHQ-9) from the German version of the Prime MD Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-D). Secondary outcome measures are the Beck-Depression-Inventory, self-reported adherence (adapted from Moriskey) and the SF-36. In addition, data are collected about patients' satisfaction (EUROPEP-tool), medication, health care utilization, comorbidity, suicide attempts and days out of work. The study comprises three assessment times: baseline (T0) , follow-up after 6 months (T1) and follow-up after 12 months (T2). DISCUSSION: Depression is now recognized as a disorder with a high prevalence in primary care but with insufficient treatment response. Case management seems to be a promising intervention which has the potential to bridge the gap of the usually time-limited and fragmented provision of care. Case management has been proven to be effective in several studies but its application in the private general medical practice setting remains unclear

Revising the WHO verbal autopsy instrument to facilitate routine cause-of-death monitoring.

OBJECTIVE: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a systematic approach for determining causes of death (CoD) in populations without routine medical certification. It has mainly been used in research contexts and involved relatively lengthy interviews. Our objective here is to describe the process used to shorten, simplify, and standardise the VA process to make it feasible for application on a larger scale such as in routine civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. METHODS: A literature review of existing VA instruments was undertaken. The World Health Organization (WHO) then facilitated an international consultation process to review experiences with existing VA instruments, including those from WHO, the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health in Developing Countries (INDEPTH) Network, InterVA, and the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC). In an expert meeting, consideration was given to formulating a workable VA CoD list [with mapping to the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) CoD] and to the viability and utility of existing VA interview questions, with a view to undertaking systematic simplification. FINDINGS: A revised VA CoD list was compiled enabling mapping of all ICD-10 CoD onto 62 VA cause categories, chosen on the grounds of public health significance as well as potential for ascertainment from VA. A set of 221 indicators for inclusion in the revised VA instrument was developed on the basis of accumulated experience, with appropriate skip patterns for various population sub-groups. The duration of a VA interview was reduced by about 40% with this new approach. CONCLUSIONS: The revised VA instrument resulting from this consultation process is presented here as a means of making it available for widespread use and evaluation. It is envisaged that this will be used in conjunction with automated models for assigning CoD from VA data, rather than involving physicians

Mast cells as a unique hematopoietic lineage and cell system:From Paul Ehrlich's visions to precision medicine concepts

The origin and functions of mast cells (MCs) have been debated since their description by Paul Ehrlich in 1879. MCs have long been considered 'reactive bystanders' and 'amplifiers' in inflammatory processes, allergic reactions, and host responses to infectious diseases. However, knowledge about the origin, phenotypes and functions of MCs has increased substantially over the past 50 years. MCs are now known to be derived from multipotent hematopoietic progenitors, which, through a process of differentiation and maturation, form a unique hematopoietic lineage residing in multiple organs. In particular, MCs are distinguishable from basophils and other hematopoietic cells by their unique phenotype, origin(s), and spectrum of functions, both in innate and adaptive immune responses and in other settings. The concept of a unique MC lineage is further supported by the development of a distinct group of neoplasms, collectively referred to as mastocytosis, in which MC precursors expand as clonal cells. The clinical consequences of the expansion and/or activation of MCs are best established in mastocytosis and in allergic inflammation. However, MCs have also been implicated as important participants in a number of additional pathologic conditions and physiological processes. In this article, we review concepts regarding MC development, factors controlling MC expansion and activation, and some of the fundamental roles MCs may play in both health and disease. We also discuss new concepts for suppressing MC expansion and/or activation using molecularly-targeted drugs

Social Determinants of Smoking in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Results from the World Health Survey

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco smoking is a leading cause of premature death and disability, and over 80% of the world's smokers live in low- or middle-income countries. The objective of this study is to assess demographic and socioeconomic determinants of current smoking in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: We used data, from the World Health Survey in 48 low-income and middle-income countries, to explore the impact of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the current smoking status of respondents. The data from these surveys provided information on 213,807 respondents aged 18 years or above that were divided into 4 pooled datasets according to their sex and country income group. The overall proportion of current smokers, as well as the proportion by each relevant demographic and socioeconomic determinant, was calculated within each of the pooled datasets, and multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between current smoking and these determinants. RESULTS: The odds of smoking were not equal in all demographic or socioeconomic groups. Some factors were fairly stable across the four datasets studied: for example, individuals were more likely to smoke if they had little or no education, regardless of if they were male or female, or lived in a low or a middle income country. Nevertheless, other factors, notably age and wealth, showed a differential effect on smoking by sex or country income level. While women in the low-income country group were twice as likely to smoke if they were in the lowest wealth quintile compared with the highest, the association was absent in the middle-income country group. CONCLUSION: Information on how smoking is distributed among low- or middle-income countries will allow policy makers to tailor future policies, and target the most vulnerable populations

Cross-national agreement on disability weights: the European Disability Weights Project

BACKGROUND: Disability weights represent the relative severity of disease stages to be incorporated in summary measures of population health. The level of agreement on disability weights in Western European countries was investigated with different valuation methods. METHODS: Disability weights for fifteen disease stages were elicited empirically in panels of health care professionals or non-health care professionals with an academic background following a strictly standardised procedure. Three valuation methods were used: a visual analogue scale (VAS); the time trade-off technique (TTO); and the person trade-off technique (PTO). Agreement among England, France, the Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden on the three disability weight sets was analysed by means of an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) in the framework of generalisability theory. Agreement among the two types of panels was similarly assessed. RESULTS: A total of 232 participants were included. Similar rankings of disease stages across countries were found with all valuation methods. The ICC of country agreement on disability weights ranged from 0.56 [95% CI, 0.52–0.62] with PTO to 0.72 [0.70–0.74] with VAS and 0.72 [0.69–0.75] with TTO. The ICC of agreement between health care professionals and non-health care professionals ranged from 0.64 [0.58–0.68] with PTO to 0.73 [0.71–0.75] with VAS and 0.74 [0.72–0.77] with TTO. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the study supports a reasonably high level of agreement on disability weights in Western European countries with VAS and TTO methods, which focus on individual preferences, but a lower level of agreement with the PTO method, which focuses more on societal values in resource allocation

Patients' functioning as predictor of nursing workload in acute hospital units providing rehabilitation care: a multi-centre cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Management decisions regarding quality and quantity of nurse staffing have important consequences for hospital budgets. Furthermore, these management decisions must address the nursing care requirements of the particular patients within an organizational unit. In order to determine optimal nurse staffing needs, the extent of nursing workload must first be known. Nursing workload is largely a function of the composite of the patients' individual health status, particularly with respect to functioning status, individual need for nursing care, and severity of symptoms. The International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) and the derived subsets, the so-called ICF Core Sets, are a standardized approach to describe patients' functioning status. The objectives of this study were to (1) examine the association between patients' functioning, as encoded by categories of the Acute ICF Core Sets, and nursing workload in patients in the acute care situation, (2) compare the variance in nursing workload explained by the ICF Core Set categories and with the Barthel Index, and (3) validate the Acute ICF Core Sets by their ability to predict nursing workload.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients' functioning at admission was assessed using the respective Acute ICF Core Set and the Barthel Index, whereas nursing workload data was collected using an established instrument. Associations between dependent and independent variables were modelled using linear regression. Variable selection was carried out using penalized regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In patients with neurological and cardiopulmonary conditions, selected ICF categories and the Barthel Index Score explained the same variance in nursing workload (44% in neurological conditions, 35% in cardiopulmonary conditions), whereas ICF was slightly superior to Barthel Index Score for musculoskeletal conditions (20% versus 16%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A substantial fraction of the variance in nursing workload in patients with rehabilitation needs in the acute hospital could be predicted by selected categories of the Acute ICF Core Sets, or by the Barthel Index score. Incorporating ICF Core Set-based data in nursing management decisions, particularly staffing decisions, may be beneficial.</p

The Association between Hypertension and Depression and Anxiety Disorders: Results from a Nationally-Representative Sample of South African Adults

OBJECTIVE:Growing evidence suggests high levels of comorbidity between hypertension and mental illness but there are few data from low- and middle-income countries. We examined the association between hypertension and depression and anxiety in South Africa. METHODS:Data come from a nationally-representative survey of adults (n = 4351). The Composite International Diagnostic Interview was used to measure DSM-IV mental disorders during the previous 12-months. The relationships between self-reported hypertension and anxiety disorders, depressive disorders and comorbid anxiety-depression were assessed after adjustment for participant characteristics including experience of trauma and other chronic physical conditions. RESULTS:Overall 16.7% reported a previous medical diagnosis of hypertension, and 8.1% and 4.9% were found to have a 12-month anxiety or depressive disorder, respectively. In adjusted analyses, hypertension diagnosis was associated with 12-month anxiety disorders [Odds ratio (OR) = 1.55, 95% Confidence interval (CI) = 1.10-2.18] but not 12-month depressive disorders or 12-month comorbid anxiety-depression. Hypertension in the absence of other chronic physical conditions was not associated with any of the 12-month mental health outcomes (p-values all <0.05), while being diagnosed with both hypertension and another chronic physical condition were associated with 12-month anxiety disorders (OR = 2.25, 95% CI = 1.46-3.45), but not 12-month depressive disorders or comorbid anxiety-depression. CONCLUSIONS:These are the first population-based estimates to demonstrate an association between hypertension and mental disorders in sub-Saharan Africa. Further investigation is needed into role of traumatic life events in the aetiology of hypertension as well as the temporality of the association between hypertension and mental disorders