Association between markers of arterial stiffness and atrial fibrillation in the Circulatory Risk in Communities Study (CIRCS).

Background and aims:Limited evidence is available on the association between markers of arterial stiffness and the prevalence of atrial fibrillation among Asian populations. Therefore, we examined those associations in the Japanese population.Methods:We conducted a cross-sectional population-based study of 4264 men and women aged 40-79 years. The augmentation index (AI), a marker of arterial stiffness, was calculated as the ratio of central pulse pressure/brachial pulse pressure, where the AI and central aortic pressure were measured by an automated tonometer: the HEM-9000AI device (Omron Healthcare co., Kyoto, Japan). Atrial fibrillation was estimated by the Minnesota codes using resting electrocardiograph (ECG).Results:The prevalence of atrial fibrillation and total arrhythmia were higher with larger AI values. These associations did not change after adjustment for known cardiovascular risk factors. The multivariable odd ratios (95% confidence intervals) in the highest versus lowest tertiles of AI were 3.4 (1.4-8.6, p for trend = 0.008) for atrial fibrillation and 1.8 (1.2-2.7, p for trend = 0.004) for total arrhythmia. There was no association of central or brachial pulse pressure levels with the prevalence of atrial fibrillation or total arrhythmia.ConclusionAI values, but not brachial or central pulse pressures, were positively associated with the prevalence of atrial fibrillation and total arrhythmia, independent of cardiovascular risk factors

The Circulatory Risk in Communities Study (CIRCS): A Long-Term Epidemiological Study for Lifestyle-Related Disease Among Japanese Men and Women Living in Communities

The Circulatory Risk in Communities Study (CIRCS) is an ongoing community-based epidemiological study of lifestyle-related disease involving dynamic prospective cohorts of approximately 12,000 adults from five communities of Japan: Ikawa, Ishizawa and Kita-Utetsu (Akita Prefecture), Minami-Takayasu (Osaka Prefecture), Noichi (Kochi Prefecture), and Kyowa (Ibaraki Prefecture). One of the most notable features of CIRCS is that it is not only an observational cohort study to identify risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), such as stroke, coronary heart disease, and sudden cardiac death, but it also involves prevention programs for CVD. Using basic, clinical, epidemiological, and statistical techniques, CIRCS has clarified characteristics of CVD and the related risk factors to develop specific methodologies towards CVD prevention in Japanese middle-aged or older adults for more than half a century

Development of Risk Prediction Equations for Incident Chronic Kidney Disease

IMPORTANCE ‐ Early identification of individuals at elevated risk of developing chronic kidney disease  could improve clinical care through enhanced surveillance and better management of underlying health  conditions.  OBJECTIVE – To develop assessment tools to identify individuals at increased risk of chronic kidney  disease, defined by reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).  DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS – Individual level data analysis of 34 multinational cohorts from  the CKD Prognosis Consortium including 5,222,711 individuals from 28 countries. Data were collected  from April, 1970 through January, 2017. A two‐stage analysis was performed, with each study first  analyzed individually and summarized overall using a weighted average. Since clinical variables were  often differentially available by diabetes status, models were developed separately within participants  with diabetes and without diabetes. Discrimination and calibration were also tested in 9 external  cohorts (N=2,253,540). EXPOSURE Demographic and clinical factors.  MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES – Incident eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2.  RESULTS – In 4,441,084 participants without diabetes (mean age, 54 years, 38% female), there were  660,856 incident cases of reduced eGFR during a mean follow‐up of 4.2 years. In 781,627 participants  with diabetes (mean age, 62 years, 13% female), there were 313,646 incident cases during a mean follow‐up of 3.9 years. Equations for the 5‐year risk of reduced eGFR included age, sex, ethnicity, eGFR, history of cardiovascular disease, ever smoker, hypertension, BMI, and albuminuria. For participants  with diabetes, the models also included diabetes medications, hemoglobin A1c, and the interaction  between the two. The risk equations had a median C statistic for the 5‐year predicted probability of  0.845 (25th – 75th percentile, 0.789‐0.890) in the cohorts without diabetes and 0.801 (25th – 75th percentile, 0.750‐0.819) in the cohorts with diabetes. Calibration analysis showed that 9 out of 13 (69%) study populations had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Discrimination was  similar in 18 study populations in 9 external validation cohorts; calibration showed that 16 out of 18 (89%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE – Equations for predicting risk of incident chronic kidney disease developed in over 5 million people from 34 multinational cohorts demonstrated high discrimination and  variable calibration in diverse populations

Serum potassium and adverse outcomes across the range of kidney function: a CKD Prognosis Consortium meta-analysis.

Aims: Both hypo- and hyperkalaemia can have immediate deleterious physiological effects, and less is known about long-term risks. The objective was to determine the risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and end-stage renal disease associated with potassium levels across the range of kidney function and evaluate for consistency across cohorts in a global consortium. Methods and results: We performed an individual-level data meta-analysis of 27 international cohorts [10 general population, 7 high cardiovascular risk, and 10 chronic kidney disease (CKD)] in the CKD Prognosis Consortium. We used Cox regression followed by random-effects meta-analysis to assess the relationship between baseline potassium and adverse outcomes, adjusted for demographic and clinical characteristics, overall and across strata of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. We included 1 217 986 participants followed up for a mean of 6.9 years. The average age was 55 ± 16 years, average eGFR was 83 ± 23 mL/min/1.73 m2, and 17% had moderate- to-severe increased albuminuria levels. The mean baseline potassium was 4.2 ± 0.4 mmol/L. The risk of serum potassium of >5.5 mmol/L was related to lower eGFR and higher albuminuria. The risk relationship between potassium levels and adverse outcomes was U-shaped, with the lowest risk at serum potassium of 4-4.5 mmol/L. Compared with a reference of 4.2 mmol/L, the adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-1.29] at 5.5 mmol/L and 1.49 (95% CI 1.26-1.76) at 3.0 mmol/L. Risks were similar by eGFR, albuminuria, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor use, and across cohorts. Conclusions: Outpatient potassium levels both above and below the normal range are consistently associated with adverse outcomes, with similar risk relationships across eGFR and albuminuria