Strict and fussy mode splitting in the tangent space of the Ginzburg-Landau equation

In the tangent space of some spatially extended dissipative systems one can observe "physical" modes which are highly involved in the dynamics and are decoupled from the remaining set of hyperbolically "isolated" degrees of freedom representing strongly decaying perturbations. This mode splitting is studied for the Ginzburg-Landau equation at different strength of the spatial coupling. We observe that isolated modes coincide with eigenmodes of the homogeneous steady state of the system; that there is a local basis where the number of non-zero components of the state vector coincides with the number of "physical" modes; that in a system with finite number of degrees of freedom the strict mode splitting disappears at finite value of coupling; that above this value a fussy mode splitting is observed.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure

Predicting Spatio-Temporal Time Series Using Dimension Reduced Local States

We present a method for both cross estimation and iterated time series prediction of spatio temporal dynamics based on reconstructed local states, PCA dimension reduction, and local modelling using nearest neighbour methods. The effectiveness of this approach is shown for (noisy) data from a (cubic) Barkley model, the Bueno-Orovio-Cherry-Fenton model, and the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky model

Manifold Learning Approach for Chaos in the Dripping Faucet

Dripping water from a faucet is a typical example exhibiting rich nonlinear phenomena. For such a system, the time stamps at which water drops separate from the faucet can be directly observed in real experiments, and the time series of intervals \tau_n between drop separations becomes a subject of analysis. Even if the mass m_n of a drop at the onset of the n-th separation, which cannot be observed directly, exhibits perfectly deterministic dynamics, it sometimes fails to obtain important information from time series of \tau_n. This is because the return plot \tau_n-1 vs. \tau_n may become a multi-valued function, i.e., not a deterministic dynamical system. In this paper, we propose a method to construct a nonlinear coordinate which provides a "surrogate" of the internal state m_n from the time series of \tau_n. Here, a key of the proposed approach is to use ISOMAP, which is a well-known method of manifold learning. We first apply it to the time series of $\tau_n$ generated from the numerical simulation of a phenomenological mass-spring model for the dripping faucet system. It is shown that a clear one-dimensional map is obtained by the proposed approach, whose characteristic quantities such as the Lyapunov exponent, the topological entropy, and the time correlation function coincide with the original dripping faucet system. Furthermore, we also analyze data obtained from real dripping faucet experiments which also provides promising results.Comment: 9 pages, 10 figure

Basin structure of optimization based state and parameter estimation

Most data based state and parameter estimation methods require suitable initial values or guesses to achieve convergence to the desired solution, which typically is a global minimum of some cost function. Unfortunately, however, other stable solutions (e.g., local minima) may exist and provide suboptimal or even wrong estimates. Here we demonstrate for a 9-dimensional Lorenz-96 model how to characterize the basin size of the global minimum when applying some particular optimization based estimation algorithm. We compare three different strategies for generating suitable initial guesses and we investigate the dependence of the solution on the given trajectory segment (underlying the measured time series). To address the question of how many state variables have to be measured for optimal performance, different types of multivariate time series are considered consisting of 1, 2, or 3 variables. Based on these time series the local observability of state variables and parameters of the Lorenz-96 model is investigated and confirmed using delay coordinates. This result is in good agreement with the observation that correct state and parameter estimation results are obtained if the optimization algorithm is initialized with initial guesses close to the true solution. In contrast, initialization with other exact solutions of the model equations (different from the true solution used to generate the time series) typically fails, i.e. the optimization procedure ends up in local minima different from the true solution. Initialization using random values in a box around the attractor exhibits success rates depending on the number of observables and the available time series (trajectory segment).Comment: 15 pages, 2 figure

CaosDB - Research Data Management for Complex, Changing, and Automated Research Workflows

Here we present CaosDB, a Research Data Management System (RDMS) designed to ensure seamless integration of inhomogeneous data sources and repositories of legacy data. Its primary purpose is the management of data from biomedical sciences, both from simulations and experiments during the complete research data lifecycle. An RDMS for this domain faces particular challenges: Research data arise in huge amounts, from a wide variety of sources, and traverse a highly branched path of further processing. To be accepted by its users, an RDMS must be built around workflows of the scientists and practices and thus support changes in workflow and data structure. Nevertheless it should encourage and support the development and observation of standards and furthermore facilitate the automation of data acquisition and processing with specialized software. The storage data model of an RDMS must reflect these complexities with appropriate semantics and ontologies while offering simple methods for finding, retrieving, and understanding relevant data. We show how CaosDB responds to these challenges and give an overview of the CaosDB Server, its data model and its easy-to-learn CaosDB Query Language. We briefly discuss the status of the implementation, how we currently use CaosDB, and how we plan to use and extend it

Inferring Network Connectivity by Delayed Feedback Control

We suggest a control based approach to topology estimation of networks with elements. This method first drives the network to steady states by a delayed feedback control; then performs structural perturbations for shifting the steady states times; and finally infers the connection topology from the steady states' shifts by matrix inverse algorithm () or -norm convex optimization strategy applicable to estimate the topology of sparse networks from perturbations. We discuss as well some aspects important for applications, such as the topology reconstruction quality and error sources, advantages and disadvantages of the suggested method, and the influence of (control) perturbations, inhomegenity, sparsity, coupling functions, and measurement noise. Some examples of networks with Chua's oscillators are presented to illustrate the reliability of the suggested technique

Data-Driven Modeling and Prediction of Complex Spatio-Temporal Dynamics in Excitable Media

Spatio-temporal chaotic dynamics in a two-dimensional excitable medium is (cross-) estimated using a machine learning method based on a convolutional neural network combined with a conditional random field. The performance of this approach is demonstrated using the four variables of the Bueno-Orovio-Fenton-Cherry model describing electrical excitation waves in cardiac tissue. Using temporal sequences of two-dimensional fields representing the values of one or more of the model variables as input the network successfully cross-estimates all variables and provides excellent forecasts when applied iteratively

Sustainability, collapse and oscillations in a simple World-Earth model

The Anthropocene is characterized by close interdependencies between the natural Earth system and the global human society, posing novel challenges to model development. Here we present a conceptual model describing the long-term co-evolution of natural and socio-economic subsystems of Earth. While the climate is represented via a global carbon cycle, we use economic concepts to model socio-metabolic flows of biomass and fossil fuels between nature and society. A well-being-dependent parametrization of fertility and mortality governs human population dynamics. Our analysis focuses on assessing possible asymptotic states of the Earth system for a qualitative understanding of its complex dynamics rather than quantitative predictions. Low dimension and simple equations enable a parameter-space analysis allowing us to identify preconditions of several asymptotic states and hence fates of humanity and planet. These include a sustainable co-evolution of nature and society, a global collapse and everlasting oscillations. We consider different scenarios corresponding to different socio-cultural stages of human history. The necessity of accounting for the 'human factor' in Earth system models is highlighted by the finding that carbon stocks during the past centuries evolved opposing to what would 'naturally' be expected on a planet without humans. The intensity of biomass use and the contribution of ecosystem services to human well-being are found to be crucial determinants of the asymptotic state in a (pre-industrial) biomass-only scenario without capital accumulation. The capitalistic, fossil-based scenario reveals that trajectories with fundamentally different asymptotic states might still be almost indistinguishable during even a centuries-long transient phase. Given current human population levels, our study also supports the claim that besides reducing the global demand for energy, only the extensive use of renewable energies may pave the way into a sustainable future