The population history of Germany: research strategy and preliminary results

The paper presents the project of an aggregative reconstruction of the population of Ger-many from the sixteenth century to 1840, when official statistics began to provide complete coverage of all German states. The creation of estimates of population size and of annual series of the crude birth, marriage and death rates rests on three types of sources: First, pairs of partial censuses of hearths, taxpayers, communicants, etc. for the same regional aggregate at two different points in time are used to derive annual growth rates of popula-tion. This information is used to derive approximate estimates of total population size in ten-year intervals. Second, to develop aggregate series of vital events the project aims to analyse approximately 450 to 600 parish registers. Third, the project makes use of proto-statistical material on population size and the number of vital events that states began to collect selectively from c. 1740. On the basis of material from Gehrmann (2000), from published studies on c. 140 parishes and from selected other sources we construct a pre-liminary dataset for the period 1730–1840. Our cumulative rates of natural increase are broadly consistent with independent estimates of population growth. We use these series for two explorative analyses: First, on the basis of inverse projection we generate tentative estimates of the gross reproduction rate, of life expectancy and the dependency ratio. The results suggest an increase of the life expectancy and of the dependency ratio, the latter being the result of persistent population growth. Second, by adding a real wage series we study Malthusian adaptation with two methods, namely, VAR and time varying cumulated lag regression. The results consistently suggest the presence of both the preventive and the positive check during the eighteenth century. Whereas the preventive check persisted into the nineteenth century, mortality became exogenous in the early nineteenth century. Par-ticularly the 1810s turn out as a period of major change in at least three dimensions: real wages increased, life expectancies rose, and the positive check disappeared. Thus, Germany became a non-Malthusian economy well before the advent of industrialisation. Additional information suggests that market integration was a driving force behind this process.Germany, history, population

Chapter Economic inequality in Germany, 1500-1800

The chapter reviews existing evidence regarding four aspects of economic inequality: relative factor rents, which relate to the factorial distribution of income and also underlie the so-called Williamson index (y/wus), which is correlated with the Gini index of household income; real inequality in terms of opposite movements of the price of consumer baskets consumed by different strata of society; the inequality of pay according to gender and skill, as well as between town and countryside; and wealth inequality, particularly with respect to the access to land. The main result is that, with given technology and agrarian institutions, there is a positive correlation between population and inequality

Early Humidity Measurements by Louis Morin in Paris between 1701 and 1711—Data and Metadata

This paper discusses what is, to our knowledge, the oldest subdaily measurement series of humidity taken over several years. Louis Morin performed the measurements in Paris, three times a day, between May 1701 and June 1711. A correlation analysis of Morin’s humidity measurements with various meteorological variables yields results comparable to those of a parallel analysis of the relative humidity measurements of the E-OBS data: the Spearman correlation coefficient between the humidity and the daily minimum temperature is -0.43 (p < 0.01); with the mean temperature, it is -0.54 (p < 0.01); with the maximum temperature, it is -0.59 (p < 0.01); with the diurnal temperature range, it is -0.65 (p < 0.01); and with the total cloud cover, 0.33 (p < 0.01). However, with a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.11 (p < 0.01), no correlation is found with the precipitation data. Further evidence for the plausibility of the measurements is shown by a day-by-day analysis of the first half-year of 1709. Here, abrupt changes in the humidity measurements of Morin can be explained by the other measurements/observations of Morin. According to the correlation analysis, indirect notes in his journal, and others, we argue that Morin used the hygrometer developed by Vincenzo Viviani. However, the conversion of the data to common units is not performed and is subject to further research

Precipitation reconstructions for Paris based on the observations by Louis Morin, 1665-1713 CE

This paper presents a precipitation reconstruction that is based on the continuous observations by Louis Morin in Paris from 1665–1713. Morin usually recorded precipitation intensity and duration three times each day (sometimes up to six times) when it snowed or rained. The continuity of his observations can be calculated considering all measurements and observations (e.g., temperature, cloud cover), where on 98.7% of all days between February 1665 and July 1713 at least one entry per day is noted. To convert these observations to common units, we calibrated them with a multiplicative interacting model using Philippe and Gabriele-Philippe de la Hire’s instrumental measurements from Paris. The two series of measurements by de la Hire (father and son) and observations by Morin overlap from 1688–1713. To test the quality of the reconstruction, we analyzed it with the de la Hire’s measurements, proxy data, an internal analysis of Morin’s measurements of different climate variables, and modern data. Thus, we assess the reliability of the precipitation reconstructions based on Morin’s data as follows. We have moderate confidence regarding the exact quantities of daily, seasonal, and annual precipitation totals. We have low confidence regarding exceptionally high precipitation amounts, but we have high confidence in the indices of an impact analysis (i.e., dry days, wet days, consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days); in monthly frequencies of rainfall; and in interannual, interseasonal, and interdecadal variability. Rainy seasons with precipitation totals greater than 250mm occurred in MAM 1682, JJA 1682, SON 1687, JJA 1697, and JJA 1703. Furthermore, compared to other DJF seasons, the winter of 1666/1667 slightly stands out with a precipitation total of 214.6 mm. Dry seasons with precipitation totals less than 60mm occurred in SON 1669, DJF 1671/1672, and DJF 1690/1691. An impact analysis shows no abnormalities regarding consecutive dry days or wet days in MAM. In JJA a longer dry period of 31 days appeared in 1686 and a dry period of 69 d appeared in DJF 1671/1672

Subdaily meteorological measurements of temperature, direction of the movement of the clouds, and cloud cover in the Late Maunder Minimum by Louis Morin in Paris

We have digitized three meteorological variables (temperature, direction of the movement of the clouds, and cloud cover) from copies of Louis Morin’s original measurements (source: Institute of History/Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern; Institut de France) and subjected them to quality analysis to make these data available to the scientific community. Our available data cover the period 1665–1713 (temperature beginning in 1676). We compare the early instrumental temperature dataset with statistical methods and proxy data to validate the measurements in terms of inhomogeneities and claim that they are, apart from small inhomogeneities, reliable. The Late Maunder Minimum (LMM) is characterized by cold winters and falls and moderate springs and summers with respect to the reference period of 1961–1990. Winter months show a significantly lower frequency of the westerly direction in the movement of the clouds. This reduction of advection from the ocean leads to a cooling in Paris in winter. The influence of the advection becomes apparent when comparing the last decade of the 17th century (cold) and the first decade of the 18th century (warm). Consequently, the unusually cold winters in the LMM are largely caused by a lower frequency of the westerly direction in the movement of the clouds. An impact analysis reveals that the winter of 1708/09 was a devastating one with respect to consecutive ice days, although other winters are more pronounced (e.g., the winters of 1676/77, 1678/79, 1683/84, 1692/93, 1694/95, and 1696/97) in terms of mean temperature, ice days, cold days, or consecutive cold days. An investigation of the cloud cover data revealed a high discrepancy, with the winter season (DJF, -14.0 %), the spring season (MAM, -20.8 %), the summer season (JJA, -17.9 %), and the fall season (SON, -18.0 %) showing negative anomalies of total cloud cover (TCC) with respect to the 30-year mean of the ERA5 data (1981–2010). Thus, Morin’s measurements of temperature and direction of the movement of the clouds seem to be trustworthy, whereas cloud cover in quantitative terms should be taken with caution

The use of weights to account for non-response and drop-out

Background: Empirical studies in psychiatric research and other fields often show substantially high refusal and drop-out rates. Non-participation and drop-out may introduce a bias whose magnitude depends on how strongly its determinants are related to the respective parameter of interest. Methods: When most information is missing, the standard approach is to estimate each respondent’s probability of participating and assign each respondent a weight that is inversely proportional to this probability. This paper contains a review of the major ideas and principles regarding the computation of statistical weights and the analysis of weighted data. Results: A short software review for weighted data is provided and the use of statistical weights is illustrated through data from the EDSP (Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology) Study. The results show that disregarding different sampling and response probabilities can have a major impact on estimated odds ratios. Conclusions: The benefit of using statistical weights in reducing sampling bias should be balanced against increased variances in the weighted parameter estimates

Omalizumab as alternative to chronic use of oral corticosteroids in severe asthma

Systemic/oral corticosteroids (OCS) have been used for decades in the management of acute asthma exacerbations and chronically in patients with uncontrolled severe asthma. However, while OCS are effective at treating acute exacerbations, there is only empirical evidence regarding the efficacy of OCS at reducing the rate of exacerbations. Evidence, although scarce, is suggestive of high exacerbation rates in severe asthma patients even when receiving maintenance treatment with OCS. In addition, use of OCS is associated with undesirable effects. Despite all this, physicians have continued to use OCS for managing severe asthma and acute exacerbation due to the lack of availability of effective alternatives. Fortunately, in the last decade several biologics have been proven safe and effective for patients with uncontrolled severe asthma. This has led to the Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) recommending the use of biologics, instead of maintenance OCS, in patients with severe asthma (GINA Step 5). These include one biologic targeting immunoglobulin E (IgE) (omalizumab), and different biologics targeting interleukin-5 (IL-5), the IL-5 receptor (IL-5R) or IL-4 receptor alpha-unit (IL-4R alpha), including mepolizumab (subcutaneous), reslizumab (intravenous), benralizumab (subcutaneous) and dupilumab (subcutaneous). Omalizumab for the treatment of severe allergic asthma reduces exacerbations, irrespective of blood eosinophil levels. Anti-IL-5/IL-5R biologics are indicated in patients with severe eosinophilic asthma and repetitive exacerbations, irrespective of the presence or absence of allergy. Recently, an anti-IL4R alpha biologic has been approved by the FDA for eosinophilic phenotype or oral corticosteroid-dependent asthma. Finally, physicians should consider using biologics as an alternative to chronic OCS therapy

Parental alcohol use disorders and alcohol use and disorders in offspring: a community study

Background. We examined the association between parental alcohol use disorders and patterns of alcohol consumption and DSM-IV alcohol use disorders in their offspring in a community-based sample of young adults. Methods. Data are based on baseline and 4-year follow-up data of 2427 respondents aged 14–24 at baseline. Alcohol use and disorders in respondents were assessed using the Munich-Composite-International-Diagnostic-Interview with DSM-IV algorithms. Diagnostic information about parents was collected by family history information from the respondents, and by direct interview with one parent (cohort aged 14 to 17 years only). Results. Although the association between maternal and paternal alcohol use disorders and non-problematical drinking in offspring was minimal, there was a strong effect for the transition to hazardous use and for alcohol abuse and dependence; the effect of parental concordance for transition into hazardous use was particularly striking. Maternal history was associated with a higher probability of progression from occasional to regular use, whereas paternal history was associated with progression from regular to hazardous use. Parental alcoholism increased the risk for first onset of hazardous use and alcohol dependence between the ages of 14–17, and for an earlier onset of the alcohol outcomes in offspring. The impact of parental alcohol use disorders was comparable for male and female offspring. Conclusions. Parental alcoholism predicts escalation of alcohol use, development of alcohol use disorders and onset of alcohol outcomes in offspring