Quantum phenomenology of conjunction fallacy

A quantum-like description of human decision process is developed, and a heuristic argument supporting the theory as sound phenomenology is given. It is shown to be capable of quantitatively explaining the conjunction fallacy in the same footing as the violation of sure-thing principle.Comment: LaTeX 8 pages, 2 figure

Are Individuals Fickle-Minded?

Game theory has been used to model large-scale social events — such as constitutional law, democratic stability, standard setting, gender roles, social movements, communication, markets, the selection of officials by means of elections, coalition formation, resource allocation, distribution of goods, and war — as the aggregate result of individual choices in interdependent decision-making. Game theory in this way assumes methodological individualism. The widespread observation that game theory predictions do not in general match observation has led to many attempts to repair game theory by creating behavioral game theory, which adds corrective terms to the game theoretic predictions in the hope of making predictions that better match observations. But for game theory to be useful in making predictions, we must be able to generalize from an individual’s behavior in one situation to that individual’s behavior in very closely similar situations. In other words, behavioral game theory needs individuals to be reasonably consistent in action if the theory is to have predictive power. We argue on the basis of experimental evidence that the assumption of such consistency is unwarranted. More realistic models of individual agents must be developed that acknowledge the variance in behavior for a given individual

Reasons and Means to Model Preferences as Incomplete

Literature involving preferences of artificial agents or human beings often assume their preferences can be represented using a complete transitive binary relation. Much has been written however on different models of preferences. We review some of the reasons that have been put forward to justify more complex modeling, and review some of the techniques that have been proposed to obtain models of such preferences

Investing in Prevention or Paying for Recovery - Attitudes to Cyber Risk

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.Broadly speaking an individual can invest time and effort to avoid becoming victim to a cyber attack and/or they can invest resource in recovering from any attack. We introduce a new game called the pre-vention and recovery game to study this trade-off. We report results from the experimental lab that allow us to categorize different approaches to risk taking. We show that many individuals appear relatively risk loving in that they invest in recovery rather than prevention. We find little difference in behavior between a gain and loss framing

Tversky loss function for image segmentation using 3D fully convolutional deep networks

Fully convolutional deep neural networks carry out excellent potential for fast and accurate image segmentation. One of the main challenges in training these networks is data imbalance, which is particularly problematic in medical imaging applications such as lesion segmentation where the number of lesion voxels is often much lower than the number of non-lesion voxels. Training with unbalanced data can lead to predictions that are severely biased towards high precision but low recall (sensitivity), which is undesired especially in medical applications where false negatives are much less tolerable than false positives. Several methods have been proposed to deal with this problem including balanced sampling, two step training, sample re-weighting, and similarity loss functions. In this paper, we propose a generalized loss function based on the Tversky index to address the issue of data imbalance and achieve much better trade-off between precision and recall in training 3D fully convolutional deep neural networks. Experimental results in multiple sclerosis lesion segmentation on magnetic resonance images show improved F2 score, Dice coefficient, and the area under the precision-recall curve in test data. Based on these results we suggest Tversky loss function as a generalized framework to effectively train deep neural networks

Phase control and measurement in digital microscopy

The ongoing merger of the digital and optical components of the modern microscope is creating opportunities for new measurement techniques, along with new challenges for optical modelling. This thesis investigates several such opportunities and challenges which are particularly relevant to biomedical imaging. Fourier optics is used throughout the thesis as the underlying conceptual model, with a particular emphasis on three--dimensional Fourier optics. A new challenge for optical modelling provided by digital microscopy is the relaxation of traditional symmetry constraints on optical design. An extension of optical transfer function theory to deal with arbitrary lens pupil functions is presented in this thesis. This is used to chart the 3D vectorial structure of the spatial frequency spectrum of the intensity in the focal region of a high aperture lens when illuminated by linearly polarised beam. Wavefront coding has been used successfully in paraxial imaging systems to extend the depth of field. This is achieved by controlling the pupil phase with a cubic phase mask, and thereby balancing optical behaviour with digital processing. In this thesis I present a high aperture vectorial model for focusing with a cubic phase mask, and compare it with results calculated using the paraxial approximation. The effect of a refractive index change is also explored. High aperture measurements of the point spread function are reported, along with experimental confirmation of high aperture extended depth of field imaging of a biological specimen. Differential interference contrast is a popular method for imaging phase changes in otherwise transparent biological specimens. In this thesis I report on a new isotropic algorithm for retrieving the phase from differential interference contrast images of the phase gradient, using phase shifting, two directions of shear, and non--iterative Fourier phase integration incorporating a modified spiral phase transform. This method does not assume that the specimen has a constant amplitude. A simulation is presented which demonstrates good agreement between the retrieved phase and the phase of the simulated object, with excellent immunity to imaging noise

Cross entropy as a measure of musical contrast

We present a preliminary study of using the information theoretic concept of cross-entropy to measure musical contrast in a symbolic context, with a focus on melody. We measure cross-entropy using the Information Dynamics Of Music (IDyOM) framework. Whilst our long term aim is to understand the use of contrast in Sonata form, in this paper we take a more general perspective and look at a broad spread of Western art music of the common practice era. Our results suggest that cross-entropy has a useful role as an objective measure of contrast, but that a fuller picture will require more work

Coordination when there are restricted and unrestricted options

One might expect that, in pure coordination games, coordination would become less frequent as the number of options increases. Contrary to this expectation, we report an experiment which found more frequent coordination when the option set was unrestricted than when it was restricted. To try to explain this result, we develop a method for eliciting the general rules that subjects use to identify salient options in restricted and unrestricted sets. We find that each such rule, if used by all subjects, would generate greater coordination in restricted sets. However, subjects tend to apply different rules to restricted and unrestricted sets

PII: S1364-6613(02)01974-5

Counterfactual thoughts about what might have been ('if only…') are pervasive in everyday life. They are related to causal thoughts, they help people learn from experience and they influence diverse cognitive activities, from creativity to probability judgements. They give rise to emotions and social ascriptions such as guilt, regret and blame. People show remarkable regularities in the aspects of the past they mentally 'undo' in their counterfactual thoughts. These regularities provide clues about their mental representations and cognitive processes, such as keeping in mind true possibilities, and situations that are false but temporarily supposed to be true

The role of information search and its influence on risk preferences

According to the ‘Description–Experience gap’ (DE gap), when people are provided with the descriptions of risky prospects they make choices as if they overweight the probability of rare events; but when making decisions from experience after exploring the prospects’ properties, they behave as if they underweight such probability. This study revisits this discrepancy while focusing on information-search in decisions from experience. We report findings from a lab-experiment with three treatments: a standard version of decisions from description and two versions of decisions from experience: with and without a ‘history table’ recording previously sampled events. We find that people sample more from lotteries with rarer events. The history table proved influential; in its absence search is more responsive to cues such as a lottery’s variance while in its presence the cue that stands out is the table’s maximum capacity. Our analysis of risky choices captures a significant DE gap which is mitigated by the presence of the history table. We elicit probability weighting functions at the individual level and report that subjects overweight rare events in experience but less so than in description. Finally, we report a measure that allows us to compare the type of DE gap found in studies using choice patterns with that inferred through valuation and find that the phenomenon is similar but not identical across the two methods