Warming temperatures drive at least half of the magnitude of long-term trait changes in European birds

Many wild populations are experiencing temporal changes in life-history and other phenotypic traits, and these changes are frequently assumed to be driven by climate change rather than nonclimatic drivers. However, this assumption relies on three conditions: that local climate is changing, traits are sensitive to climate variability, and other drivers are not also changing over time. Although many studies acknowledge one or more of these conditions, all three are rarely checked simultaneously. Consequently, the relative contribution of climate change to trait change, and the variation in this contribution across traits and species, remain unclear. We used long-term datasets on 60 bird species in Europe to test the three conditions in laying date, offspring number, and body condition and used a method that quantifies the contribution of warming temperatures to changes in traits relative to other effects. Across species, approximately half of the magnitude of changes in traits could be attributed to rising mean temperature, suggesting that increasing temperatures are likely the single most important contributor to temporal trends and emphasizes the impact that global warming is having on natural populations. There were also substantial nontemperature-related temporal trends (presumably due to other changes such as urbanization), which generally caused trait change in the same direction as warming. Attributing temporal trends solely to warming thus overestimates the impact of warming. Furthermore, contributions from nontemperature drivers explained most of the interspecific variation in trait changes, raising concerns about comparative studies that attribute differences in temporal trends to species differences in climate-change sensitivity

Love thy neighbour?-Spatial variation in density dependence of nest survival in relation to predator community

Aim: In many species, density-dependent effects on reproduction are an important driver of population dynamics. However, it is rarely considered that the direction of density dependence is expected to vary over space and time depending on anti-predator behaviour and predator community. Aggregation may allow for effective group mobbing against avian nest predators while aggregation may also attract mammalian predators, causing negative density dependence. We aim to quantify spatial variation in the effect of conspecific breeding density on nest survival in a mobbing bird species (Eurasian oystercatcher; Haematopus ostralegus) and identify whether this variation in density dependence can be explained by the predator community. Location: Country-wide (The Netherlands). Methods: We integrated reproductive data with breeding territory maps of Eurasian oystercatchers and occupancy maps of avian and mammalian predator species across the Netherlands for a 10-year period. Results: Spatial variation in the composition of the predator community explained the effects of neighbour density, showing decreasing nest survival when both conspecific density and mammalian dominance increased. Also, heterospecific density (from breeding godwits and lapwing) has an additional effect on the oystercatcher nest survival. Strikingly, this pattern did not extend to mammal-free island populations. Main conclusions: Our study provides evidence that both the strength and sign of density dependence can vary spatially within species, implying that it is dangerous to generalize results from a single local population to large-scale management implications and modelling exercises. The study also suggests that conservation actions that aim to attract breeding birds should be prioritized in areas with fewer mammalian predators, but this idea requires further testing on island populations

Bioclimatic context of species' populations determines community stability

Aim: It is important to understand the factors affecting community stability because ecosystem function is increasingly at risk from biodiversity loss. Here, we evaluate how a key factor, the position of local environmental conditions within the thermal range of the species, influences the stability of butterfly communities at a continental scale. Location: Spain, UK and Finland. Time period: 1999–2017. Major taxa studied: Butterflies. Methods: We tested the following hypotheses about how species responses to temperature anomalies aggregate to influence stability: Hypothesis 1, species have contrasting responses to local temperature anomalies at opposing edges of their thermal range; hypothesis 2, communities with central thermal range positions have higher community stability; and the impacts of thermal range position on community stability are driven by hypothesis 3, population asynchrony, or hypothesis 4, additive population stability. Data were analysed at 876 sites for 157 species. Results: We found some support for hypothesis 1, because there were interactions between thermal range and response to temperature anomalies such that species at different range edges could provide weak compensatory dynamics. However, responses were nonlinear, suggesting strong declines with extreme anomalies, particularly at the hot range edge. Hypothesis 2 was supported in part, because community stability increased with central thermal range positions and declined at the edges, after accounting for species richness and community abundance. Thermal range position was weakly correlated with asynchrony (hypothesis 3) and population stability (hypothesis 4), although species richness and population abundance had larger impacts. Main conclusions: Future extreme heat events will be likely to impact species negatively across their thermal range, but might be particularly impactful on populations at the hottest end of the thermal range. Thermal range position influenced community stability because range edge communities were stable. However, the prediction of community stability from thermal range position is challenging because of nonlinear responses to temperature, with small temperature anomalies producing weak compensatory dynamics, but large extreme events synchronizing dynamics

Integrated population modeling identifies low duckling survival as a key driver of decline in a European population of the Mallard

Europe’s highest densities of breeding Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) are found in the Netherlands, but the breeding population there has declined by ~30% since the 1990s. The exact cause of this decline has remained unclear. Here, we used an integrated population model to jointly analyze Mallard population survey, nest survey, duckling survival, and band-recovery data. We used this approach to holistically estimate all relevant vital rates, including duckling survival rates for years for which no explicit data were available. Mean vital rate estimates were high for nest success (0.38 ± 0.01) and egg hatch rate (0.96 ± 0.001), but relatively low for clutch size (8.2 ± 0.05) compared to populations in other regions. Estimates for duckling survival rate for the three years for which explicit data were available were low (0.16–0.27) compared to historical observations, but were comparable to rates reported for other regions with declining populations. Finally, the mean survival rate was low for ducklings (0.18 ± 0.02), but high and stable for adults (0.71 ± 0.03). Population growth rate was only affected by variation in duckling survival, but since this is a predominantly latent state variable, this result should be interpreted with caution. However, it does strongly indicate that none of the other vital rates, all of which were supported by data, was able to sufficiently explain the population decline. Together with a comparison with historic vital rates, these findings point to a reduced duckling survival rate as the likely cause of the decline. Candidate drivers of reduced duckling survival are increased predation pressure and reduced food availability, but this requires future study. Integrated population modeling can provide valuable insights into population dynamics even when empirical data for a key parameter are partly missing

Warming temperatures drive at least half of the magnitude of long-term trait changes in European birds

Many wild populations are experiencing temporal changes in life-history and other phenotypic traits, and these changes are frequently assumed to be driven by climate change rather than nonclimatic drivers. However, this assumption relies on three conditions: that local climate is changing, traits are sensitive to climate variability, and other drivers are not also changing over time. Although many studies acknowledge one or more of these conditions, all three are rarely checked simultaneously. Consequently, the relative contribution of climate change to trait change, and the variation in this contribution across traits and species, remain unclear. We used long-term datasets on 60 bird species in Europe to test the three conditions in laying date, offspring number, and body condition and used a method that quantifies the contribution of warming temperatures to changes in traits relative to other effects. Across species, approximately half of the magnitude of changes in traits could be attributed to rising mean temperature, suggesting that increasing temperatures are likely the single most important contributor to temporal trends and emphasizes the impact that global warming is having on natural populations. There were also substantial nontemperature-related temporal trends (presumably due to other changes such as urbanization), which generally caused trait change in the same direction as warming. Attributing temporal trends solely to warming thus overestimates the impact of warming. Furthermore, contributions from nontemperature drivers explained most of the interspecific variation in trait changes, raising concerns about comparative studies that attribute differences in temporal trends to species differences in climate-change sensitivity

Birds protected by national legislation show improved population trends in Eastern Europe

International audienceProtecting species is one of the major focuses of conservation efforts. However, large-scale assessments of the effects of species protection on animal populations are rare. Protection has been shown to benefit birds in Western Europe and in the United States, but not yet in Eastern Europe, where modern environmental legislation was only established in the early 1990s after political changes. We compared the population trends of bird species between 1970–1990 and 1990–2000 in ten Eastern European countries for species protected since 1990s and unprotected species, controlling for effects of species’ phylogeny and traits. After 1990, trends in protected species improved more than in unprotected species. This suggests that national legislation has helped prevent declines of the protected species, although there was a high variability in population trends among countries. In particular, there was great improvement in the population trends of protected species in countries providing ‘narrow and deep’ protection to few species. In contrast, trends of protected species remained nearly unchanged in countries providing ‘broad and shallow’ protection to most species, while few unprotected species had adverse population trends in these countries. Although our correlative analysis cannot show causal relationships, the positive relationship between protection and long-term population trends suggests that species protection is a highly relevant tool for conservation. A combination of ‘broad and shallow’ and ‘narrow and deep’ protection might be most efficient for securing healthy bird populations for the future

Love thy neighbour?—Spatial variation in density dependence of nest survival in relation to predator community

Aim: In many species, density-dependent effects on reproduction are an important driver of population dynamics. However, it is rarely considered that the direction of density dependence is expected to vary over space and time depending on anti-predator behaviour and predator community. Aggregation may allow for effective group mobbing against avian nest predators while aggregation may also attract mammalian predators, causing negative density dependence. We aim to quantify spatial variation in the effect of conspecific breeding density on nest survival in a mobbing bird species (Eurasian oystercatcher; Haematopus ostralegus) and identify whether this variation in density dependence can be explained by the predator community. Location: Country-wide (The Netherlands). Methods: We integrated reproductive data with breeding territory maps of Eurasian oystercatchers and occupancy maps of avian and mammalian predator species across the Netherlands for a 10-year period. Results: Spatial variation in the composition of the predator community explained the effects of neighbour density, showing decreasing nest survival when both conspecific density and mammalian dominance increased. Also, heterospecific density (from breeding godwits and lapwing) has an additional effect on the oystercatcher nest survival. Strikingly, this pattern did not extend to mammal-free island populations. Main conclusions: Our study provides evidence that both the strength and sign of density dependence can vary spatially within species, implying that it is dangerous to generalize results from a single local population to large-scale management implications and modelling exercises. The study also suggests that conservation actions that aim to attract breeding birds should be prioritized in areas with fewer mammalian predators, but this idea requires further testing on island populations

Reproductive timing as a constraint on invasion success in the Ring-necked parakeet (**Psittacula krameri**)

Climate similarity favors biological invasion, but a match between seasonality in the novel range and the timing of life cycle events of the invader also influences the outcome of species introduction. Yet, phenology effects on invasion success have generally been neglected. Here we study whether a phenological mismatch limits the non-native range of a globally successful invader, the Ring-necked parakeet, in Europe. Given the latitudes at which parakeets have established across Europe, they breed earlier than expected based on breeding dates from the native Asian range. Moreover, comparing the breeding dates of European populations to those of parakeets in the native Asian range, to five native breeding bird species in Europe and to the start of the growing season of four native European trees shows that the discrepancy between expected and actual breeding phenology is greater in northern Europe. In northern European populations, this temporal mismatch appears to have negative effects on hatching success, and on population growth rates in years that are colder than average in the first six months. Phenological mismatch also can explain why parakeets from African populations (that are more likely to breed in autumn) have been poor invaders compared to parakeets from Asia. These lines of evidence support the hypothesis that the reproductive phenology of the Ring-necked parakeet can be a limiting factor for establishment and range expansion in colder climates. Our results provide growing support for the hypothesis that the match between climate seasonality and timing of reproduction (or other important life cycle events) can affect the establishment success, invasive potential and distribution range of introduced non-native species, beyond the mere effect of climate similarity

Mechanisms underpinning community stability along a latitudinal gradient: insights from a niche-based approach

At large scales, the mechanisms underpinning stability in natural communities may vary in importance due to changes in species composition, mean abundance, and species richness. Here we link species characteristics (niche positions) and community characteristics (richness and abundance) to evaluate the importance of stability mechanisms in 156 butterfly communities monitored across three European countries and spanning five bioclimatic regions. We construct niche-based hierarchical structural Bayesian models to explain first differences in abundance, population stability, and species richness between the countries, and then explore how these factors impact community stability both directly and indirectly (via synchrony and population stability). Species richness was partially explained by the position of a site relative to the niches of the species pool, and species near the centre of their niche had higher average population stability. The differences in mean abundance, population stability, and species richness then influenced how much variation in community stability they explained across the countries. We found, using variance partitioning, that community stability in Finnish communities was most influenced by community abundance, whereas this aspect was unimportant in Spain with species synchrony explaining most variation; the UK was somewhat intermediate with both factors explaining variation. Across all countries, the diversity-stability relationship was indirect with species richness reducing synchrony which increased community stability, with no direct effects of species richness. Our results suggest that in natural communities, biogeographic variation observed in key drivers of stability, such as population abundance and species richness, lead to community stability being limited by different factors and that this can partially be explained due to the niche characteristics of the European butterfly assemblage