Panel on future challenges in modeling methodology

This panel paper presents the views of six researchers and practitioners of simulation modeling. Collectively we attempt to address a range of key future challenges to modeling methodology. It is hoped that the views of this paper, and the presentations made by the panelists at the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference will raise awareness and stimulate further discussion on the future of modeling methodology in areas such as modeling problems in business applications, human factors and geographically dispersed networks; rapid model development and maintenance; legacy modeling approaches; markup languages; virtual interactive process design and simulation; standards; and Grid computing

Wolbachia endosymbionts induce neutrophil extracellular trap formation in human onchocerciasis

The endosymbiotic bacteria, Wolbachia, induce neutrophilic responses to the human helminth pathogen Onchocerca volvulus. The formation of Neutrophil Extracellular Traps (NETs), has been implicated in anti-microbial defence, but has not been identified in human helminth infection. Here, we demonstrate NETs formation in human onchocerciasis. Extracellular NETs and neutrophils were visualised around O. volvulus in nodules excised from untreated patients but not in nodules from patients treated with the anti-Wolbachia drug, doxycycline. Whole Wolbachia or microspheres coated with a synthetic Wolbachia lipopeptide (WoLP) of the major nematode Wolbachia TLR2/6 ligand, peptidoglycan associated lipoprotein, induced NETosis in human neutrophils in vitro. TLR6 dependency of Wolbachia and WoLP NETosis was demonstrated using purified neutrophils from TLR6 deficient mice. Thus, we demonstrate for the first time that NETosis occurs during natural human helminth infection and demonstrate a mechanism of NETosis induction via Wolbachia endobacteria and direct ligation of Wolbachia lipoprotein by neutrophil TLR2/6

Improved timed-mating, non-invasive method using fewer unproven female rats with pregnancy validation via early body mass increases

For studies requiring accurate conception-timing, reliable, efficient methods of detecting oestrus reduce time and costs, whilst improving welfare. Standard methods use vaginal cytology to stage cycle, and breeders are paired–up using approximately five proven females with proven males to achieve at least one conception on a specific day. We describe an alternative, fast, consistent, non-invasive method of timed-mating using detection of lordosis behaviour in Wistar and Lister-Hooded rats that used unproven females with high success rates. Rats under reverse-lighting had body masses recorded pre-mating, day (d) 3-4, d8, d10 and d18 of pregnancy. Using only the presence of the oestrus dance to time-mate females for 24-hrs, 89% Wistar and 88% Lister-Hooded rats successfully conceived. We did not observe behavioural oestrus in Sprague-Dawleys without males present. Significant body mass increases following mating distinguished pregnant from non-pregnant rats, as early as d4 of pregnancy (10% ± 1.0 increase cf 3% ± 1.2). The pattern of increases throughout gestation was similar for all pregnant rats until late pregnancy, when there were smaller increases for primi- and multiparous rats (32% ± 2.5; 25% ± 2.4), whereas nulliparous rats had highest gains (38% ± 1.5). This method demonstrated a distinct refinement of the previous timed-mating common practice used, as disturbance of females was minimised. Only the number required of nulli-, primi- or multiparous rats were mated, and body mass increases validated pregnancy status. This new breeding-management method is now established practice for two strains of rat and resulted in a reduction in animal use

Are GPs under-investigating older patients presenting with symptoms of ovarian cancer? Observational study using General Practice Research Database

Background: Recent studies suggest that older patients in the United Kingdom are not benefiting as much from improvements in cancer treatments as their younger counterparts. We investigate whether this might be partly due to differential referral rates using ovarian cancer as an example. Methods: From the General Practice Research Database (GPRD), we identified all women aged 40–80 years on 1 June 2002 with a Read code for ovarian cancer between 1 June 2002 and 31 May 2007. Using these records, we compared the GPRD incidence of ovarian cancer with rates compiled from the UK cancer registries and investigated the relationship between age and coded investigations for suspected ovarian cancer. Results: The GPRD rates peaked earlier, at 70–74, and were lower than registry rates for nearly all ages particularly for patients over 59. The proportion investigated or referred by the GP decreased significantly with age and delays between first coded symptom and investigation showed a U-shaped distribution by age. Conclusions: GPs appear to be less likely to recognise and to refer patients presenting with ovarian cancer as they get older. If our findings extend to other cancers, lack of or delays in referral to secondary care may partly explain poor UK cancer mortality rates of older people

Do topical repellents divert mosquitoes within a community? Health equity implications of topical repellents as a mosquito bite prevention tool.

OBJECTIVES: Repellents do not kill mosquitoes--they simply reduce human-vector contact. Thus it is possible that individuals who do not use repellents but dwell close to repellent users experience more bites than otherwise. The objective of this study was to measure if diversion occurs from households that use repellents to those that do not use repellents. METHODS: The study was performed in three Tanzanian villages using 15%-DEET and placebo lotions. All households were given LLINs. Three coverage scenarios were investigated: complete coverage (all households were given 15%-DEET), incomplete coverage (80% of households were given 15%-DEET and 20% placebo) and no coverage (all households were given placebo). A crossover study design was used and coverage scenarios were rotated weekly over a period of ten weeks. The placebo lotion was randomly allocated to households in the incomplete coverage scenario. The level of compliance was reported to be close to 100%. Mosquito densities were measured through aspiration of resting mosquitoes. Data were analysed using negative binomial regression models. FINDINGS: Repellent-users had consistently fewer mosquitoes in their dwellings. In villages where everybody had been given 15%-DEET, resting mosquito densities were fewer than half that of households in the no coverage scenario (Incidence Rate Ratio [IRR]=0.39 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.25-0.60); p<0.001). Placebo-users living in a village where 80% of the households used 15%-DEET were likely to have over four-times more mosquitoes (IRR=4.17; 95% CI: 3.08-5.65; p<0.001) resting in their dwellings in comparison to households in a village where nobody uses repellent. CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence that high coverage of repellent use could significantly reduce man-vector contact but with incomplete coverage evidence suggests that mosquitoes are diverted from households that use repellent to those that do not. Therefore, if repellents are to be considered for vector control, strategies to maximise coverage are required

Balancing the dilution and oddity effects: Decisions depend on body size

Background Grouping behaviour, common across the animal kingdom, is known to reduce an individual's risk of predation; particularly through dilution of individual risk and predator confusion (predator inability to single out an individual for attack). Theory predicts greater risk of predation to individuals more conspicuous to predators by difference in appearance from the group (the ‘oddity’ effect). Thus, animals should choose group mates close in appearance to themselves (eg. similar size), whilst also choosing a large group. Methodology and Principal Findings We used the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata), a well known model species of group-living freshwater fish, in a series of binary choice trials investigating the outcome of conflict between preferences for large and phenotypically matched groups along a predation risk gradient. We found body-size dependent differences in the resultant social decisions. Large fish preferred shoaling with size-matched individuals, while small fish demonstrated no preference. There was a trend towards reduced preferences for the matched shoal under increased predation risk. Small fish were more active than large fish, moving between shoals more frequently. Activity levels increased as predation risk decreased. We found no effect of unmatched shoal size on preferences or activity. Conclusions and Significance Our results suggest that predation risk and individual body size act together to influence shoaling decisions. Oddity was more important for large than small fish, reducing in importance at higher predation risks. Dilution was potentially of limited importance at these shoal sizes. Activity levels may relate to how much sampling of each shoal was needed by the test fish during decision making. Predation pressure may select for better decision makers to survive to larger size, or that older, larger fish have learned to make shoaling decisions more efficiently, and this, combined with their size relative to shoal-mates, and attractiveness as prey items influences shoaling decisions

Manipulation of drugs to achieve the required dose is intrinsic to paediatric practice but is not supported by guidelines or evidence

Background: A lack of age-appropriate formulations can make it difficult to administer medicines to children. A manipulation of the dosage form may be required to achieve the required dose. This study aimed to describe medicines that are manipulated to achieve the required dose in paediatric practice.Method: A structured, undisguised observational study and postal survey. The observational study investigated drug manipulations occurring in clinical practice across three sites. The questionnaire, administered to a sample of paediatric nurses throughout the UK, surveyed manipulations conducted and nurses' experiences and views.Results: The observational study identified 310 manipulations, of which 62% involved tablets, 21% were intravenous drugs and 10% were sachets. Of the 54 observed manipulations 40 involved tablets with 65% of the tablets being cut and 30% dispersed to obtain a smaller dose. 188 manipulations were reported by questionnaire respondents, of these 46% involved tablets, 12% were intravenous drugs, and 12% were nebuliser solutions. Manipulations were predominantly, but not exclusively, identified in specialist clinical areas with more highly dependent patients. Questionnaire respondents were concerned about the accuracy of the dose achieved following manipulations and the lack of practice guidance.Conclusion: Manipulations to achieve the required dose occur throughout paediatric in-patient settings. The impact of manipulations on the efficacy of the drugs, the accuracy of the dose and any adverse effects on patients is not known. There is a need to develop evidence-based guidance for manipulations of medicines in children

Second trimester inflammatory and metabolic markers in women delivering preterm with and without preeclampsia.

ObjectiveInflammatory and metabolic pathways are implicated in preterm birth and preeclampsia. However, studies rarely compare second trimester inflammatory and metabolic markers between women who deliver preterm with and without preeclampsia.Study designA sample of 129 women (43 with preeclampsia) with preterm delivery was obtained from an existing population-based birth cohort. Banked second trimester serum samples were assayed for 267 inflammatory and metabolic markers. Backwards-stepwise logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios.ResultsHigher 5-α-pregnan-3β,20α-diol disulfate, and lower 1-linoleoylglycerophosphoethanolamine and octadecanedioate, predicted increased odds of preeclampsia.ConclusionsAmong women with preterm births, those who developed preeclampsia differed with respect metabolic markers. These findings point to potential etiologic underpinnings for preeclampsia as a precursor to preterm birth

Neonatal-onset multisystem inflammatory disease responsive to interleukin-1 beta inhibition

BACKGROUND:Neonatal-onset multisystem inflammatory disease is characterized by fever, urticarial rash, aseptic meningitis, deforming arthropathy, hearing loss, and mental retardation. Many patients have mutations in the cold-induced autoinflammatory syndrome 1 (CIAS1) gene, encoding cryopyrin, a protein that regulates inflammation.METHODS:We selected 18 patients with neonatal-onset multisystem inflammatory disease (12 with identifiable CIAS1 mutations) to receive anakinra, an interleukin-1-receptor antagonist (1 to 2 mg per kilogram of body weight per day subcutaneously). In 11 patients, anakinra was withdrawn at three months until a flare occurred. The primary end points included changes in scores in a daily diary of symptoms, serum levels of amyloid A and C-reactive protein, and the erythrocyte sedimentation rate from baseline to month 3 and from month 3 until a disease flare.RESULTS:All 18 patients had a rapid response to anakinra, with disappearance of rash. Diary scores improved (P<0.001) and serum amyloid A (from a median of 174 mg to 8 mg per liter), C-reactive protein (from a median of 5.29 mg to 0.34 mg per deciliter), and the erythrocyte sedimentation rate decreased at month 3 (all P<0.001), and remained low at month 6. Magnetic resonance imaging showed improvement in cochlear and leptomeningeal lesions as compared with baseline. Withdrawal of anakinra uniformly resulted in relapse within days; retreatment led to rapid improvement. There were no drug-related serious adverse events.CONCLUSIONS:Daily injections of anakinra markedly improved clinical and laboratory manifestations in patients with neonatal-onset multisystem inflammatory disease, with or without CIAS1 mutations