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Watershed rainfall forecasting using neuro-fuzzy networks with the assimilation of multi-sensor information
The complex temporal heterogeneity of rainfall coupled with mountainous physiographic context makes a great challenge in the development of accurate short-term rainfall forecasts. This study aims to explore the effectiveness of multiple rainfall sources (gauge measurement, and radar and satellite products) for assimilation-based multi-sensor precipitation estimates and make multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasts based on the assimilated precipitation. Bias correction procedures for both radar and satellite precipitation products were first built, and the radar and satellite precipitation products were generated through the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensors (QPESUMS) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), respectively. Next, the synthesized assimilated precipitation was obtained by merging three precipitation sources (gauges, radars and satellites) according to their individual weighting factors optimized by nonlinear search methods. Finally, the multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasting was carried out by using the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The Shihmen Reservoir watershed in northern Taiwan was the study area, where 641 hourly data sets of thirteen historical typhoon events were collected. Results revealed that the bias adjustments in QPESUMS and PERSIANN-CCS products did improve the accuracy of these precipitation products (in particular, 30-60% improvement rates for the QPESUMS, in terms of RMSE), and the adjusted PERSIANN-CCS and QPESUMS individually provided about 10% and 24% contribution accordingly to the assimilated precipitation. As far as rainfall forecasting is concerned, the results demonstrated that the ANFIS fed with the assimilated precipitation provided reliable and stable forecasts with the correlation coefficients higher than 0.85 and 0.72 for one- and two-hour-ahead rainfall forecasting, respectively. The obtained forecasting results are very valuable information for the flood warning in the study watershed during typhoon periods. © 2013 Elsevier B.V
Money Walks: A Human-Centric Study on the Economics of Personal Mobile Data
In the context of a myriad of mobile apps which collect personally
identifiable information (PII) and a prospective market place of personal data,
we investigate a user-centric monetary valuation of mobile PII. During a 6-week
long user study in a living lab deployment with 60 participants, we collected
their daily valuations of 4 categories of mobile PII (communication, e.g.
phonecalls made/received, applications, e.g. time spent on different apps,
location and media, photos taken) at three levels of complexity (individual
data points, aggregated statistics and processed, i.e. meaningful
interpretations of the data). In order to obtain honest valuations, we employ a
reverse second price auction mechanism. Our findings show that the most
sensitive and valued category of personal information is location. We report
statistically significant associations between actual mobile usage, personal
dispositions, and bidding behavior. Finally, we outline key implications for
the design of mobile services and future markets of personal data.Comment: 15 pages, 2 figures. To appear in ACM International Joint Conference
on Pervasive and Ubiquitous Computing (Ubicomp 2014
Traditional tales and imaginary contexts in primary design and technology: a case study
Working with contexts is a key component to design and technology activity and education. The most recent iteration of the national curriculum programme of study for design and technology, in England, sets out that children between the ages of 5 and 7 âshould work in a range of relevant contextsâ (DfE, 2013: 193); suggested contexts including âhome and school, gardens and playgrounds, the local community, industry and the wider environmentâ. Whilst these are real world and familiar contexts, fictional contexts also provide opportunities for developing âcreative spacesâ in which to speculate and discuss. This intrinsic case study explores the work of two primary teachersâ development of a design and technology activity, where traditional tales provide the context. Children explore design problems and opportunities through the eyes of the Billy Goats Gruff, as they seek assistance to cross the river. Data was gathered through semi-structured interviews and document analysis of childrenâs design work. The case study reveals how multidisciplinary and imaginative approaches to teaching and learning in the primary classroom simulate and nurture design thinking, dialogue and critique
Kinematic modelling of a 3-axis NC machine tool in linear and circular interpolation
Machining time is a major performance criterion when it comes to high-speed
machining. CAM software can help in estimating that time for a given strategy.
But in practice, CAM-programmed feed rates are rarely achieved, especially
where complex surface finishing is concerned. This means that machining time
forecasts are often more than one step removed from reality. The reason behind
this is that CAM routines do not take either the dynamic performances of the
machines or their specific machining tolerances into account. The present
article seeks to improve simulation of high-speed NC machine dynamic behaviour
and machining time prediction, offering two models. The first contributes
through enhanced simulation of three-axis paths in linear and circular
interpolation, taking high-speed machine accelerations and jerks into account.
The second model allows transition passages between blocks to be integrated in
the simulation by adding in a polynomial transition path that caters for the
true machining environment tolerances. Models are based on respect for path
monitoring. Experimental validation shows the contribution of polynomial
modelling of the transition passage due to the absence of a leap in
acceleration. Simulation error on the machining time prediction remains below
1%
The 'four principles of bioethics' as found in 13(th) century Muslim scholar Mawlana's teachings
BACKGROUND: There have been different ethical approaches to the issues in the history of philosophy. Two American philosophers Beachump and Childress formulated some ethical principles namely 'respect to autonomy', 'justice', 'beneficence' and 'non-maleficence'. These 'Four Principles' were presented by the authors as universal and applicable to any culture and society. Mawlana, a great figure in Sufi tradition, had written many books which not only guide people how to worship God to be close to Him, but also advise people how to lead a good life to enrich their personality, as well as to create a harmonious society and a peaceful world. METHODS: In this study we examined the major works of Mawlana to find out which of these 'Four Principles of Bioethics' exist in Mawlana's ethical understanding. RESULTS: We have found in our study that all these principles exist in Mawlana's writings and philosophy in one form or another. CONCLUSIONS: We have concluded that, further to Beachump and Childress' claim that these principles are universal and applicable to any culture and society, these principles have always existed in different moral traditions in different ways, of which Mawlana's teaching might be presented as a good example
Estimation in a Competing Risks Proportional Hazards Model Under Length-biased Sampling With Censoring
International audienceWhat population does the sample represent? The answer to this question is of crucial importance when estimating a survivor function in duration studies. As is well-known, in a stationary population, survival data obtained from a cross-sectional sample taken from the population at time represents not the target density but its length-biased version proportional to , for . The problem of estimating survivor function from such length-biased samples becomes more complex, and interesting, in presence of competing risks and censoring. This paper lays out a sampling scheme related to a mixed Poisson process and develops nonparametric estimators of the survivor function of the target population assuming that the two independent competing risks have proportional hazards. Two cases are considered: with and without independent consoring before length biased sampling. In each case, the weak convergence of the process generated by the proposed estimator is proved. A well-known study of the duration in power for political leaders is used to illustrate our results. Finally, a simulation study is carried out in order to assess the finite sample behaviour of our estimators
2-Methyl 2-butanol suppresses human retinoblastoma cells through cell cycle arrest and autophagy
Nationwide epidemiological study of severe gallstone disease in Taiwan
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Our study aimed to assess the nationwide trends in the incidence of severe gallstone disease in Taiwan among adults aged â„20.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted using Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database collected during 1997â2005. Patients with incident severe gallstone disease (acute cholecystitis, biliary pancreatitis, acute cholangitis) and gallstone-related procedures (elective and non-elective cholecystectomy, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography [ERCP]) that led to hospital admission were identified using ICD-9-CM diagnostic and procedure codes. Annual incidence rates of gallstone-related complications and procedures were calculated and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated assuming a Poisson distribution.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The hospital admission rate for severe gallstone disease increased with advancing age and the age-standardized rate (95% CI) per 1000 population was 0.60 (0.59â0.60) for men and 0.59 (0.59â0.60) for women. Men had a higher rate of acute cholecystitis, probably due to the substantially lower rate of elective cholecystectomy among men than women. For those aged 20â39, hospital admissions for all gallstone-related complications and procedures increased significantly. For those aged â„60, incidences of biliary pancreatitis, acute cholangitis, and hospital admission for gallstone receiving ERCP increased significantly without substantial change in the incidence of acute cholecystitis and despite a decreased rate of elective cholecystectomy.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This population-based study found a substantial increase in the rate of admission for severe gallstone disease among those aged 20â39. Concurrently, the incidences of biliary pancreatitis and acute cholangitis have risen among those aged â„60.</p
The lncRNA HOTAIR transcription is controlled by HNF4α-induced chromatin topology modulation
The expression of the long noncoding RNA HOTAIR (HOX Transcript Antisense Intergenic RNA) is largely deregulated in epithelial cancers and positively correlates with poor prognosis and progression of hepatocellular carcinoma and gastrointestinal cancers. Furthermore, functional studies revealed a pivotal role for HOTAIR in the epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition, as this RNA is causal for the repressive activity of the master factor SNAIL on epithelial genes. Despite the proven oncogenic role of HOTAIR, its transcriptional regulation is still poorly understood. Here hepatocyte nuclear factor 4-α (HNF4α), as inducer of epithelial differentiation, was demonstrated to directly repress HOTAIR transcription in the mesenchymal-to epithelial transition. Mechanistically, HNF4α was found to cause the release of a chromatin loop on HOTAIR regulatory elements thus exerting an enhancer-blocking activity
Lessons from SARS: A retrospective study of outpatient care during an infectious disease outbreak
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Toronto, outpatient clinics at SickKids Hospital were closed to prevent further disease transmission. In response, a decision was made by the neonatal neuro-developmental follow up (NNFU) clinic staff to select patients with scheduled appointments to have a mail/telephone assessment using Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ) or to postpone/skip their visit. The objective of this study was to compare the developmental assessment and its outcome in two groups of NNFU clinic patients, SARS versus non-SARS, over three standard clinic appointments.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We compared the diagnostic accuracy (identification of developmental delay), and patient management (referral for therapy or communication of a new diagnosis) of the strategies used during SARS, April/May 2003, to the standard assessment methods used for patients seen in April/May 2005 (non-SARS). In all cases data were obtained for 3 patient visits: before, during and after these 2 months and were compared using descriptive statistics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 95 patients in the SARS group and 99 non-SARS patients. The gestational age, sex, entry diagnosis and age at the clinic visit was not different between the groups. The NNFU clinic staff mailed ASQ to 27 families during SARS, 17 (63%) were returned, and 8 of the 17 were then contacted by telephone. Criteria used to identify infants at risk selected for either mailed ASQ or phone interviews were not clearly defined in the patients' charts. There was a significant under identification of developmental delay during SARS (18% versus 45%). Of those who responded to the mailed questionnaire, referrals for therapy rates were similar to non-SARS group. The lost to follow up rate was 24% for the SARS group compared with 7% for non-SARS. There was no difference in the overall rate of developmental delay in the two groups as identified at the 'after' visit.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Poor advanced planning led to a haphazard assessment of patients during this infectious disease outbreak. Future pandemic plans should consider planning for outpatient care as well as in hospital management of patients.</p
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