Temporal constraints on linear BRDF model parameters

Linear models of bidirectional reflectance distribution are useful tools for understanding the angular variability of surface reflectance as observed by medium-resolution sensors such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer. These models are operationally used to normalize data to common view and illumination geometries and to calculate integral quantities such as albedo. Currently, to compensate for noise in observed reflectance, these models are inverted against data collected during some temporal window for which the model parameters are assumed to be constant. Despite this, the retrieved parameters are often noisy for regions where sufficient observations are not available. This paper demonstrates the use of Lagrangian multipliers to allow arbitrarily large windows and, at the same time, produce individual parameter sets for each day even for regions where only sparse observations are available

Bayesian analysis of uncertainty in the GlobCover 2009 land cover product at climate model grid scale

Land cover data derived from satellites are commonly used to prescribe inputs to models of the land surface. Since such data inevitably contains errors, quantifying how uncertainties in the data affect a model’s output is important. To do so, a spatial distribution of possible land cover values is required to propagate through the model’s simulation. However, at large scales, such as those required for climate models, such spatial modelling can be difficult. Also, computer models often require land cover proportions at sites larger than the original map scale as inputs, and it is the uncertainty in these proportions that this article discusses. This paper describes a Monte Carlo sampling scheme that generates realisations of land cover proportions from the posterior distribution as implied by a Bayesian analysis that combines spatial information in the land cover map and its associated confusion matrix. The technique is computationally simple and has been applied previously to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales. This article demonstrates the ability of the technique to scale up to large (global) satellite derived land cover maps and reports its application to the GlobCover 2009 data product. The results show that, in general, the GlobCover data possesses only small biases, with the largest belonging to non–vegetated surfaces. In vegetated surfaces, the most prominent area of uncertainty is Southern Africa, which represents a complex heterogeneous landscape. It is also clear from this study that greater resources need to be devoted to the construction of comprehensive confusion matrices

Do we (need to) care about canopy radiation schemes in DGVMs? Caveats and potential impacts

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are an essential part of current state-of-the-art Earth system models. In recent years, the complexity of DGVMs has increased by incorporating new important processes like, e.g., nutrient cycling and land cover dynamics, while biogeophysical processes like surface radiation have not been developed much further. Canopy radiation models are however very important for the estimation of absorption and reflected fluxes and are essential for a proper estimation of surface carbon, energy and water fluxes. The present study provides an overview of current implementations of canopy radiation schemes in a couple of state-of-the-art DGVMs and assesses their accuracy in simulating canopy absorption and reflection for a variety of different surface conditions. Systematic deviations in surface albedo and fractions of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation (faPAR) are identified and potential impacts are assessed. The results show clear deviations for both, absorbed and reflected, surface solar radiation fluxes. FaPAR is typically underestimated, which results in an underestimation of gross primary productivity (GPP) for the investigated cases. The deviation can be as large as 25% in extreme cases. Deviations in surface albedo range between −0.15 ≤ Δα ≤ 0.36, with a slight positive bias on the order of Δα ≈ 0.04. Potential radiative forcing caused by albedo deviations is estimated at −1.25 ≤ RF ≤ −0.8 (W m−2), caused by neglect of the diurnal cycle of surface albedo. The present study is the first one that provides an assessment of canopy RT schemes in different currently used DGVMs together with an assessment of the potential impact of the identified deviations. The paper illustrates that there is a general need to improve the canopy radiation schemes in DGVMs and provides different perspectives for their improvement

Uniform upscaling techniques for eddy covariance FLUXes (UFLUX)

Data-driven techniques that scale up eddy covariance (EC) fluxes from tower footprints with satellite observations and machine learning algorithms significantly advance our understanding of global carbon, water, and energy cycles. However, few upscaling approaches take a consistent approach to upscaling both carbon and energy fluxes. A lack of uniformity in the upscaling approach could lead to inconsistencies in global interannual variability of fluxes and between types of carbon and energy fluxes. Hence, this study aims to identify obstacles in flux upscaling and propose a uniform upscaling framework UFLUX for gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), sensible heat (H), and latent energy (LE). The key findings are as follows: 1) The upscaling performance exhibits a limited improvement from the use of more advanced machine learning approaches (e.g. 50% of the upscaling uncertainty. 3) The UFLUX framework considered the interconnection between fluxes and achieved a competitive validation precision (daily R2 = 0.7 on average of five flux types) when compared with products that upscaled a subset of the fluxes. UFLUX effectively preserved the ecosystem light-use efficiency (0.83 of linear regression slope and the same after), Bowen ratio (0.8), and particularly, the water-use efficiency (0.81), when compared to the only other product (i.e. FLUXCOM) to upscale both carbon and water

A new space-borne perspective of crop productivity variations over the US Corn Belt

Remotely-sensed solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provides a means to assess vegetation productivity in a more direct way than via the greenness of leaves. SIF is produced by plants alongside photosynthesis so it is generally thought to provide a more direct probe of plant status. We analyze inter-annual variations of SIF over the US Corn Belt using a seven-year time series (2010–2016) retrieved from measurements of short-wave IR radiation collected by the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). Using survey data and annual reports from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), we relate anomalies in the GOSAT SIF time series to meteorological and climatic events that affected planting or growing seasons. The events described in the USDA annual reports are confirmed using remote sensing-based data such as land surface temperature, precipitation, water storage anomalies and soil moisture. These datasets were carefully collocated with the GOSAT footprints on a sub-pixel basis to remove any effect that could occur due to different sampling. We find that cumulative SIF, integrated from April to June, tracks the planting progress established in the first half of the planting season (Pearson correlation r > 0.89). Similarly, we show that crop yields for corn (maize) and soybeans are equally well correlated to the integrated SIF from July to October (r > 0.86). Our results for SIF are consistent with reflectance-based vegetation indices, that have a longer established history of crop monitoring. Despite GOSAT’s sparse sampling, we were able to show the potential for using satellite-based SIF to study agriculturally-managed vegetation

Exploiting satellite-based rainfall for weather index insurance: the challenges of spatial and temporal aggregation

Lack of access to insurance exacerbates the impact of climate variability on smallholder famers in Africa. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, weather index insurance (WII) pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. In principle, WII could be provided to farmers throughout Africa. There are two data-related hurdles to this. First, most farmers do not live close enough to a rain gauge with sufficiently long record of observations. Second, mismatches between weather indices and yield may expose farmers to uncompensated losses, and insurers to unfair payouts – a phenomenon known as basis risk. In essence, basis risk results from complexities in the progression from meteorological drought (rainfall deficit) to agricultural drought (low soil moisture). In this study, we use a land-surface model to describe the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought. We demonstrate that spatial and temporal aggregation of rainfall results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a reduction in basis risk. We then use an advanced statistical method to show how optimal aggregation of satellite-based rainfall estimates can reduce basis risk, enabling remotely sensed data to be utilized robustly for WII

Efficient hyper-parameter determination for regularised linear BRDF parameter retrieval

Linear kernel driven models of the surface Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) are valuable tools for exploiting Earth observation data acquired at different sun–sensor geometries. Here we present a method that efficiently determines linear BRDF model weights using Tikhonov smoothing where the smoothing parameter λ is determined via a Generalized Singular Value Decomposition with the root mean square error prescribed depending on the MODIS band. We applied this method to twenty-six different deciduous broadleaf sites across an entire year using the MODIS Terra and Aqua reflectance data products. Kernel weights and white sky albedo derived from this GSVD method were generally consistent with those provided by the MCD43 data products. The GSVD derived results had less sample variability compared to the MCD43 data products, attributable to the assumed smoothness between kernel weights in the Tikhonov smoothing method. The GSVD technique consistently outperforms MCD43 in the reconstruction of observed MODIS reflectance data, of which retrievals from this method will do a better job of estimating albedo and normalizing data to specified geometries

Evaluation of JULES-crop performance against site observations of irrigated maize from Mead, Nebraska

We use the results to point to future priorities for model development and describe how our methodology can be adapted to set up model runs for other sites and crop varietie

Individual-based modelling of elephant population dynamics using remote sensing to estimate food availability

Strategies for the conservation and management of many wild species requires an improved understanding of how population dynamics respond to changes in environmental conditions, including key drivers such as food availability. The development of mechanistic predictive models, in which the underlying processes of a system are modelled, enables a robust understanding of these demographic responses to dynamic environmental conditions. We present an individual-based energy budget model for a mega-herbivore, the African elephant (Loxodonta africana), which relates remotely measured changes in food availability to vital demographic rates of birth and mortality. Elephants require large spaces over which to roam in search of seasonal food, and thus are vulnerable to environmental changes which limit space use or alter food availability. The model is constructed using principles of physiological ecology; uncertain parameter values are calibrated using approximate Bayesian computation. The resulting model fits observed population dynamics data well. The model has critical value in being able to project elephant population size under future environmental conditions and is applicable to other mammalian herbivores with appropriate parameterisation

Human‐driven habitat conversion is a more immediate threat to Amboseli elephants than climate change

Global ecosystem change presents a major challenge to biodiversity conservation, which must identify and prioritize the most critical threats to species persistence given limited available funding. Mechanistic models enable robust predictions under future conditions and can consider multiple stressors in combination. Here we use an individual‐based model (IBM) to predict elephant population size in Amboseli, southern Kenya, under environmental scenarios incorporating climate change and anthropogenic habitat loss. The IBM uses projected food availability as a key driver of elephant population dynamics and relates variation in food availability to changes in vital demographic rates through an energy budget. Habitat loss, rather than climate change, represents the most significant threat to the persistence of the Amboseli elephant population in the 21st century and highlights the importance of collaborations and agreements that preserve space for Amboseli elephants to ensure the population remains resilient to environmental stochasticity