Identifying the Shocks behind Business Cycle Asynchrony in Euroland

This paper investigates which shocks drive asynchrony of business cycles in the euro area. Thereby, it unites two strands of literature, those on common features and on structural VAR analysis. In particular, we show that the presence of a common cycle implies collinearity of structural impulse responses. Several Wald tests are applied to the latter hypothesis. Results reveal that differences in the GDP dynamics in several peripheral countries compared to a euro zone core are triggered by idiosyncratic, and to a lesser extent also world, shocks. Additionally, real shocks prove relevant rather than nominal ones

Codependence and Cointegration

We introduce the idea of common serial correlation features among non-stationary, cointegrated variables. That is, the time series do not only trend together in the long run, but adjustment restores equilibrium immediately in the period following a deviation. Allowing for delayed re-equilibration, we extend the framework to codependence. The restrictions derived for VECMs exhibiting the common feature are checked by LR and GMM-type tests. Alongside, we provide corrected maximum codependence orders and discuss identification. The concept is applied to US and European interest rate data, examining the capability of the Fed and ECB to control overnight money market rates.VAR; serial correlation common features; codependence; cointegration

On the Identification of Codependent VAR and VEC Models

In this paper we discuss identification of codependent VAR and VEC models. Codependence of order q is given if a linear combination of autocorrelated variables eliminates the serial correlation after q lags. Importantly, maximum likelihood estimation and corresponding likelihood ratio testing are only possible if the codependence restrictions can be uniquely imposed. However, our study reveals that codependent VAR and VEC models are not generally identified. Nevertheless, we show that one can guarantee identification in case of serial correlation common features, i.e. when q=0, and for a single vector generating codependence of order q=1.Codependence; identification; VAR; cointegration; serial correlation common features

Are Eastern European Countries Catching Up? Time Series Evidence for Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland

The catching up process in Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland is analyzed by investigating the integration properties of log-differences in per-capita GDP versus the EU15 and a Mediterranean country group. We account for structural changes by using unit root tests that allow for two endogenous breaks in the level and the trend. We find that Czech Republic and Hungary are stochastically converging towards the Mediterranean group, while only Czech Republic is stochastically converging towards EU15. Remaining per capita GDP differences are only reduced by deterministic trends. Extrapolating these trends we find that catching up will take about 20 years.Stochastic convergence, Catching up, Unit root tests, EU accession

Economic integration across borders : the Polish interwar economy 1921-1937

In this paper we study the issue of economic integration across borders for the case of Poland's reunification after the First World War. Using a pooled regression approach and a threshold cointegration framework we find that the Polish interwar economy can be regarded as integrated with some restrictions. Moreover, a significant negative impact of the former partition borders on the level of integration that can be found for the early 1920s vanishes in the middle of the 1920s. This suggests that the integration policy after the reunification of Poland in 1919 was surprisingly successful. --Economic integration,Border effects,Law of one price,Poland,Threshold cointegration

Testing for Codependence of Non-Stationary Variables

We analyze non-stationary time series that do not only trend together in the long run, but restore the equilibrium immediately in the period following a deviation. While this represents a common serial correlation feature, the framework is extended to codependence, allowing for delayed adjustment. We show which restrictions are implied for VECMs and lay out a likelihood ratio test. In addition, due to identification problems in codependent VECMs a GMM test approach is proposed. We apply the concept to US and European interest rate data, examining the capability of the Fed and ECB to control overnight money market rates.Serial correlation common features; codependence; cointegration; overnight interest rates; central banks

Bootstrapping Systems Cointegration Tests with a Prior Adjustment for Deterministic Terms

In this paper we analyse bootstrap procedures for systems cointegration tests with a prior adjustment for deterministic terms suggested by Saikkonen & Lütkepohl (2000b) and Saikkonen, Lütkepohl & Trenkler (2006). The asymptotic properties of the bootstrap test procedures are derived and their small sample properties are studied. The simulation study also considers the standard asymptotic test versions and the Johansen cointegration test for comparison.Bootstrap, Systems cointegration tests, VEC models