The Future of Precision Medicine : Potential Impacts for Health Technology Assessment

Objective Precision medicine allows health care interventions to be tailored to groups of patients based on their disease susceptibility, diagnostic or prognostic information or treatment response. We analyse what developments are expected in precision medicine over the next decade and consider the implications for health technology assessment (HTA) agencies. Methods We perform a pragmatic review of the literature on the health economic challenges of precision medicine, and conduct interviews with representatives from HTA agencies, research councils and researchers from a variety of fields, including digital health, health informatics, health economics and primary care research. Results Three types of precision medicine are highlighted as likely to emerge in clinical practice and impact upon HTA agencies: complex algorithms, digital health applications and ‘omics’-based tests. Defining the scope of an evaluation, identifying and synthesizing the evidence and developing decision analytic models will more difficult when assessing more complex and uncertain treatment pathways. Stratification of patients will result in smaller subgroups, higher standard errors and greater decision uncertainty. Equity concerns may present in instances where biomarkers correlate with characteristics such as ethnicity, whilst fast-paced innovation may reduce the shelf-life of guidance and necessitate more frequent reviewing. Discussion Innovation in precision medicine promises substantial benefits to patients, but will also change the way in which some health services are delivered and evaluated. As biomarker discovery accelerates and AI-based technologies emerge, the technical expertise and processes of HTA agencies will need to adapt if the objective of value for money is to be maintained

The development of idiom comprehension: an investigation of semantic and contextual processing skills.

Two experiments compared 7- to 8- and 9- to 10-year-olds’ ability to use semantic analysis and inference from context to understand idioms. We used a multiple-choice task and manipulated whether the idioms were transparent or opaque, familiar or novel, and presented with or without a supportive story context. Performance was compared to adults (Experiment One) and 11- to 12-year-olds (Experiment Two). The results broadly support the Global Elaboration Model of figurative competence (Levorato & Cacciari, 1995) with a notable exception: even the youngest children were able to use semantic analysis to derive the meanings of transparent idioms, as well as being sensitive to meaning in context. The findings show that young children process language at both the small-grained phrasal-level as well as the discourse-level to establish figurative meaning and demonstrate that the language processing skills that aid idiom comprehension, as well as idiom knowledge itself, are still not fully developed in 11- to 12-year-olds

The facilitatory effect of negative feedback on the emergence of analogical reasoning abilities

This paper focuses on the development of analogical reasoning abilities in 5- and 6-year-old children. Our particular interest relates to the way in which analogizing is influenced by the provision of task-based feedback coupled with a self-explanation requirement. Both feedback and self-explanation provide children with opportunities to engage in self-reflective thinking about the process of analogical reasoning. To examine the role of such metacognitive factors in analogical strategy development the reported study combined a proportional analogy paradigm with a small-scale microgenetic approach involving multiple testing sessions over a restricted time period. The key manipulation involved exposing participants either to the correct or incorrect analogy completions of another reasoner that they were then asked to explain. The data revealed that the development of an effective analogizing strategy embodying a 'relational shift' from superficial to relational responding was modulated by the feedback condition that the child was placed in, with a negative feedback intervention providing the greatest developmental benefit. We suggest that the value of negative feedback for the acquisition of analogical reasoning abilities derives from the way in which a self-reflective analysis of the reasons for erroneous responses sensitizes the child to a deeper understanding of how to make effective relational mappings

To get hold of the wrong end of the stick:reasons for poor idiom understanding in children with reading comprehension difficulties.

Purpose: The aim was to identify the source of idiom understanding difficulties in children with specific reading comprehension failure. Method: Two groups (Ns=15) of 9- to 10-year-olds participated. One group had age-appropriate word reading and reading comprehension; the other had age-appropriate word reading, but poor reading comprehension. Each child completed an independent assessment of semantic analysis skills and two multiple-choice assessments of idiom comprehension. In one, idiomatic phrases were embedded in supportive story contexts; in the other they were presented out of context. Performance on transparent idioms, which are amenable to interpretation by semantic analysis, and opaque idioms, which can only be interpreted by inference from context if the meaning is not known, was compared. Results: The groups demonstrated comparable semantic analysis skills and understanding of transparent idioms. Children with poor comprehension were impaired in the use of supportive context to aid their understanding of the opaque idioms. Conclusions: The study identifies poor inference from context as a source of the idiom understanding difficulties in children with poor reading comprehension; there was no evidence that poor semantic analysis skills contributed to their difficulties. Children with poor comprehension should be supported in the use of context to understand unfamiliar figurative language

CONCEPTT : Continuous Glucose Monitoring in Women with Type 1 Diabetes in Pregnancy Trial: A multi-center, multi-national, randomized controlled trial - Study protocol

Women with type 1 diabetes strive for optimal glycemic control before and during pregnancy to avoid adverse obstetric and perinatal outcomes. For most women, optimal glycemic control is challenging to achieve and maintain. The aim of this study is to determine whether the use of real-time continuous glucose monitoring (RT-CGM) will improve glycemic control in women with type 1 diabetes who are pregnant or planning pregnancy. A multi-center, open label, randomized, controlled trial of women with type 1 diabetes who are either planning pregnancy with an HbA1c of 7.0 % to ≤10.0 % (53 to ≤ 86 mmol/mol) or are in early pregnancy (<13 weeks 6 days) with an HbA1c of 6.5 % to ≤10.0 % (48 to ≤ 86 mmol/mol). Participants will be randomized to either RT-CGM alongside conventional intermittent home glucose monitoring (HGM), or HGM alone. Eligible women will wear a CGM which does not display the glucose result for 6 days during the run-in phase. To be eligible for randomization, a minimum of 4 HGM measurements per day and a minimum of 96 hours total with 24 hours overnight (11 pm-7 am) of CGM glucose values are required. Those meeting these criteria are randomized to RT- CGM or HGM. A total of 324 women will be recruited (110 planning pregnancy, 214 pregnant). This takes into account 15 and 20 % attrition rates for the planning pregnancy and pregnant cohorts and will detect a clinically relevant 0.5 % difference between groups at 90 % power with 5 % significance. Randomization will stratify for type of insulin treatment (pump or multiple daily injections) and baseline HbA1c. Analyses will be performed according to intention to treat. The primary outcome is the change in glycemic control as measured by HbA1c from baseline to 24 weeks or conception in women planning pregnancy, and from baseline to 34 weeks gestation during pregnancy. Secondary outcomes include maternal hypoglycemia, CGM time in, above and below target (3.5-7.8 mmol/l), glucose variability measures, maternal and neonatal outcomes. This will be the first international multicenter randomized controlled trial to evaluate the impact of RT- CGM before and during pregnancy in women with type 1 diabetes. NCT01788527 December 19, 2012

The surgical safety checklist and patient outcomes after surgery: a prospective observational cohort study, systematic review and meta-analysis

© 2017 British Journal of Anaesthesia Background: The surgical safety checklist is widely used to improve the quality of perioperative care. However, clinicians continue to debate the clinical effectiveness of this tool. Methods: Prospective analysis of data from the International Surgical Outcomes Study (ISOS), an international observational study of elective in-patient surgery, accompanied by a systematic review and meta-analysis of published literature. The exposure was surgical safety checklist use. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality and the secondary outcome was postoperative complications. In the ISOS cohort, a multivariable multi-level generalized linear model was used to test associations. To further contextualise these findings, we included the results from the ISOS cohort in a meta-analysis. Results are reported as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals. Results: We included 44 814 patients from 497 hospitals in 27 countries in the ISOS analysis. There were 40 245 (89.8%) patients exposed to the checklist, whilst 7508 (16.8%) sustained ≥1 postoperative complications and 207 (0.5%) died before hospital discharge. Checklist exposure was associated with reduced mortality [odds ratio (OR) 0.49 (0.32–0.77); P\u3c0.01], but no difference in complication rates [OR 1.02 (0.88–1.19); P=0.75]. In a systematic review, we screened 3732 records and identified 11 eligible studies of 453 292 patients including the ISOS cohort. Checklist exposure was associated with both reduced postoperative mortality [OR 0.75 (0.62–0.92); P\u3c0.01; I2=87%] and reduced complication rates [OR 0.73 (0.61–0.88); P\u3c0.01; I2=89%). Conclusions: Patients exposed to a surgical safety checklist experience better postoperative outcomes, but this could simply reflect wider quality of care in hospitals where checklist use is routine

Prospective observational cohort study on grading the severity of postoperative complications in global surgery research

Background The Clavien–Dindo classification is perhaps the most widely used approach for reporting postoperative complications in clinical trials. This system classifies complication severity by the treatment provided. However, it is unclear whether the Clavien–Dindo system can be used internationally in studies across differing healthcare systems in high- (HICs) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods This was a secondary analysis of the International Surgical Outcomes Study (ISOS), a prospective observational cohort study of elective surgery in adults. Data collection occurred over a 7-day period. Severity of complications was graded using Clavien–Dindo and the simpler ISOS grading (mild, moderate or severe, based on guided investigator judgement). Severity grading was compared using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Data are presented as frequencies and ICC values (with 95 per cent c.i.). The analysis was stratified by income status of the country, comparing HICs with LMICs. Results A total of 44 814 patients were recruited from 474 hospitals in 27 countries (19 HICs and 8 LMICs). Some 7508 patients (16·8 per cent) experienced at least one postoperative complication, equivalent to 11 664 complications in total. Using the ISOS classification, 5504 of 11 664 complications (47·2 per cent) were graded as mild, 4244 (36·4 per cent) as moderate and 1916 (16·4 per cent) as severe. Using Clavien–Dindo, 6781 of 11 664 complications (58·1 per cent) were graded as I or II, 1740 (14·9 per cent) as III, 2408 (20·6 per cent) as IV and 735 (6·3 per cent) as V. Agreement between classification systems was poor overall (ICC 0·41, 95 per cent c.i. 0·20 to 0·55), and in LMICs (ICC 0·23, 0·05 to 0·38) and HICs (ICC 0·46, 0·25 to 0·59). Conclusion Caution is recommended when using a treatment approach to grade complications in global surgery studies, as this may introduce bias unintentionally