Modelling with uncertainty the ideological evolution of a society with extreme groups

The Basque Country is a northern Spanish region (Autonomous Community) where, from 1960¿s, there is a organization called ETA that wants to achieve its political goals by violent means. The Basque population is divided, mainly, into the ones who support or reject the ETA¿s political goals and its violent means. Also, the pressure of ETA and its supporters on the Basque population are present in the daily life. Taking into account the Basque scenario, in this PhD dissertation, we are interested in how the di¿erent groups of people defined by their attitude towards ETA evolve over the time, with two main aims: ¿ find out which the most relevant events that make changes in the attitude evolution are, ¿ taking into account the relation between ETA¿s supporters and ETA¿s member source, predict the attitude evolution in the next future in order to see if the supporters group wanes and, as a consequence, ETA also does. To do that, on one hand, we use elections and Euskobarometro data (Euskobaromero is a sociological statistical survey in the Basque Country), and then, we build the mathematical models assuming the hypothesis that the change of attitude, ideology or opinion may be socially transmitted. Therefore, classical techniques in epidemiology are used to build and study these models. On the other hand, we should not forget that we want to study a problem in Social Sciences, where data, coming from surveys, contain errors. Therefore, during the development of this dissertation it is necessary to use techniques to deal with uncertainty in the presented models. In fact, we use some, trying to avoid in each new technique the disadvantages that appear in the previous one. The structure of this PhD dissertation is as follows. In Chapter 1 we introduce the problem to be studied and make a historical overview of the PhD thesis. In Chapter 2 we summarise the main facts in the history of ETA that we consider relevant to the proper development of the present dissertation. A firstmodel is presented in Chapter 3. Here, we divide the population of the Basque Country depending on the political party they vote and classify the political parties respect to their opinion on the idea of ¿independence from Spain¿, one of the main goals of ETA. Thus, with data of general elections, we build a type-epidemiological model and use the Latin Hypercube Sampling technique to predict with uncertainty over the next election dates, the dynamics of the population respect to the idea of ¿independence from Spain¿. In the Chapter 4, Euskobarometro data about the ¿population attitude towards ETA¿ are used to build a model to find out if the ¿Law of Political Parties¿ (LPP) passed in Jun 2002 had e¿ect on the attitude towards ETA of the Basque Population. We use a bootstrapping technique to know if the di¿erences between the model prediction and Euskobarometro data after LPP are significative and quantify these di¿erences. In this case, bootstrapping is the technique that allows us to deal with the model uncertainty. In the Chapter 5, using the same model as in the Chapter 4 and Euskobarometro data about the population attitude towards ETA since May 2005, we predict with uncertainty the evolution dynamics of the groups providing a model confidence band prediction over the next few years. To do that we introduce a new computational technique to deal with the model uncertainty.Tarazona Tornero, AC. (2014). Modelling with uncertainty the ideological evolution of a society with extreme groups [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/36068TESI

Holidays, weekends and range-based volatility

This study analyses the effect of non-trading periods on the forecasting ability of S&P500 index range-based volatility models. We find that volatility significantly diminishes on the first trading day after holidays and weekends, but not after long weekends. Our findings indicate that models that include autoregressive terms that interact with dummies that allow us to capture changes in volatility levels after interrupting periods provide greater explanatory power than simple autoregressive models. Therefore, the shorter the length of the non-trading periods between two trading days, the higher the overestimation of the volatility if this effect is not considered in volatility forecasting

Revisión de la literatura de leptospirosis en España

Introducción: la leptospirosis es una zoonosis causada por espiroquetas del género Leptospira. Su distribución es mundial, aunque es más frecuente en áreas tropicales. - Objetivo: presentación de un caso clínico sobre la leptospirosis y realización de una revisión bibliográfica sobre la leptospirosis en España. - Métodos: búsqueda bibliográfica en Pubmed y síntesis cualitativa de los estudios revisados - Resultados: se revisan 14 artículos descriptivos sobre la leptospirosis en España, con un total de 296 pacientes, de los cuales el 82.7% eran varones con predominio entre la tercera y quinta década de la vida. En España su incidencia anual se estima en torno a 0,86 casos por millón de habitantes/año. La mortalidad total es de 4.89%. - Conclusiones: la leptospirosis es una zoonosis con una incidencia baja en España, que se presenta habitualmente en varones con exposiciones de riesgo en edades medias de la vida. Las manifestaciones más frecuentes son leves y el método diagnóstico más utilizado es la serología

Análisis funcional de genes reguladores del desarrollo floral de guisantes (Pisun sativum L.).

RESUMEN Con el fin de profundizar en la comprensión de los mecanismos moleculares que gobiernan los procesos de la iniciación y desarrollo floral de guisante nos planteamos los siguientes objetivos : PRIMERO.- Análisis funcional de los genes MADS de guisante PEAM1, PEAM4 y PEAM6 mediante dos tipos de abordajes, alternativos a la transformación de guisante: (i) analizando el fenotipo resultante de su expresión constitutiva en plantas silvestres de los sistemas heterólogos Arabidopsis thaliana y Nicotiana tabacum y (ii) ensayando la capacidad de los genes PEAM4 y PEAM1 de complementar mutantes de Arabidopsis de clase A y B, respectivamente. SEGUNDO.- Utilizar la tecnología del doble híbrido en levaduras para: (i) identificar proteínas que interaccionan con los productos de los genes MADS PEAM4 y PEAM6 y (ii) testar la interacción entre las proteínas PEAM4 y PEAM6. Los resultados de la expresión constitutiva de PEAM1 en plantas silvestres de Arabidopsis y de tabaco apoyan la hipótesis de que PEAM1 funciona como un gen de identidad de órgano floral de tipo B. Además, el hecho de que la construcción 35S::PEAM1 sea capaz de complementar la mutación pi-1 de Arabidopsis, pero no las mutaciones ap3-1 o ap3-3, confirma que PEAM1 es el homólogo funcional de guisante del gen PI. La expresión constitutiva de PEAM4 acelera la floración en Arabidopsis y tabaco, induce la conversión de las inflorescencias en flores en Arabidopsis, y reduce el grado de ramificación de las inflorescencias de tabaco sugiriendo que PEAM4 podría estar implicado en el proceso de la iniciación floral de guisante; en tabaco además genera un fenotipo de floración inhibida que podría deberse a un silenciamiento en los ápices del tallo de los genes de tabaco NAP1-1 y NAP2-2, homólogos a PEAM4. PEAM4 es, además, capaz de restaurar los defectos florales del mutante ap1-1 de Arabidopsis. Todos estos datos indican que PEAM4 es el homólogo funcional de guisante del gen AP1 de Arabidopsis y que comparte tanto la capacidad de funcionar como un gen de identidad de meristemo floral como la de especificar la identidad de los órganos del periantio y actuando así como un gen de función A. La expresión constitutiva de PEAM6 acelera la floración en tabaco y Arabidopsis, y en esta última además provoca la conversión de las inflorescencias en flores. Esto concuerda con la hipótesis de que PEAM6 pueda estar implicado en el proceso de la iniciación floral de guisante, sugerida previamente a partir de las evidencias genéticas que correlacionan a este gen con la mutación veg1 de guisante, y por su expresión temprana en los meristemos florales. No obstante, el fenotipo resultante de la expresión constitutiva de PEAM6 también es compatible con un papel como gen de tipo SEP, con los que comparte homología de secuencia. Los datos disponibles sugieren que tal vez PEAM6 podría llevar a cabo una doble función en guisante, como gen de iniciación floral y como gen de identidad de órgano floral de tipo SEP. El resultado positivo del ensayo de interacción entre PEAM4 y PEAM6 en el sistema del doble híbrido en levadura, así como el hecho de que PEAM4 haya sido aislado repetidamente en el rastreo de una genoteca de cDNA de ápices florales de guisante, utilizando como cebo a PEAM6, muestran que estas dos proteínas poseen la capacidad de interaccionar. Por otra parte, la intensificación sinérgica del fenotipo de las plantas transgénicas de Arabidopsis que expresan constitutivamente, y de manera simultánea, PEAM4 y PEAM6 indica que estos dos genes interaccionan in planta durante la iniciación floral y apoya la hipótesis de la interacción entre sus productos génicos sugerida por los experimentos en levadura. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________In an attempt to understand the molecular mechanisms that control the initiation and flower development processes in pea floral we aimed to achieve the following objectives: FIRST:-Functional analysis of the pea MADS genes PEAM1, PEAM4 y PEAM6 by two types of approaches, alternative to the pea transformation: (i) analyzing the resulting phenotype of the constitutive expression in wild type plants of heterologous systems Arabidopsis thaliana and Nicotiana tabacum and (ii) testing the ability of the PEAM1 and PEAM4 genes to rescue the defects of Arabidopsis mutants. SECOND.- The use the two hybrid system in yeast in order to: (i) identify proteins that interact with products of the pea MADS genes PEAM4 y PEAM6 and (ii) assay the interaction between PEAM4 and PEAM6 proteins. The results of constitutive expression of PEAM1 in wild-type plants of Arabidopsis and tobacco, and the specific rescue of pi-1 mutation confirm that PEAM1 is the pea PI function homologue. Our results indicate that PEAM4 is the functional homologue to AP1 and SQUA that PEAM4, despite lacking a canonical CaaX-box, functions as a floral meristem identity gene in heterologous systems Arabidopsis and tobacco since accelerates flowering and besides induces inflorescence to flower conversion in Arabidopsis. Moreover, PEAM4 was able to restore perianth organ identity in the strong mutant ap1-1 of Arabidopsis suggesting that it could function as an A-class gene in pea. The constitutive expression of PEAM6 accelerates flowering in tabacco and Arabidopsis, and besides induces inflorescence to flower conversion in Arabidopsis. This agrees with the hypothesis that PEAM6 could be involved in floral initiation in pea previously suggested by genetic evidences that correlates this gene with pea veg1 mutation and by its early expression in floral meristems. But, the resulting phenotype of the constitutive expression also compatible with a role as SEP gene which share sequence homology; the data suggest that PEAM6 could carried out a double role in pea as a floral initiation and also organ identity gene. Finally, PEAM4 and PEAM6 interact in planta during floral initiation and their proteins interact in yeast in a two-hybrid assay

Martiana transatlántica

José Martí’s North American Chronicles are considered a forge of Hispanic Modernism and a mirror of socio-cultural transformations at the end of nineteenth century. However, attention should also be paid to its forerunners, the European Chronicles. They herald the changes that modernity would impose on Martí’s aesthetics and on his projects of political significance for Latin America which continued growing during his transatlantic experience.Las Escenas norteamericanas de José Martí se consideran taller del Modernismo hispánico y espejo de transformaciones socioculturales en las postrimerías del XIX. Sin embargo, hay que tener en cuenta las precursoras Escenas europeas. Ya en ellas se atisban los cambios que la modernidad imprimió en la estética martiana y en los proyectos de envergadura política para Latinoamérica que el autor iba forjando también durante su experiencia transatlántica

Radiobiological considerations in combining doses from external beam radiotherapy and brachytherapy for cervical cancer

The recommended radio-therapeutic treatment for cervix cancer consists of a first phase of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) plus a second phase of brachytherapy (BT), the combined treatment being delivered within 8 weeks.In order to assess a comprehensive dosimetry of the whole treatment, it is necessary to take into account that these two phases are characterized by different spatial and temporal dosimetric distributions, which complicates the task of the summation of the two contributions, EBRT and BT. Radiobiology allows to tackle this issue pragmatically by means of the LQ model and, in fact, this is the usual tool currently in use for this matter.In this work, we describe the rationale behind the summation of the dosimetric contributions of the two phases of the treatment, EBRT and BT, for cervix cancer, as carried out with the LQ model.Besides, we address, from a radiobiological point of view, several important considerations regarding the use of the LQ model for this task. One of them is the analysis of the effect of the overall treatment time in the result of the global treatment. Another important question considered is related to the fact that the capacity of LQ to predict the treatment outcomes is deteriorated when the dose per fraction of the radiotherapic scheme exceeds 6–10Gy, which is a typical brachytherapy fractionation. Finally, we analyze the influence of the uncertainty and the variability of the main parameters utilized in the LQ model formulation in the assessment of the global dosimetry

Comorbilidad entre trastornos de conducta y depresión mayor en la adolescencia: prevalencia, teorías explicativas y estatus nosológico

This theoretical study examines the main findings and researches regarding the comorbidity between conduct disorder and major depression in adolescence. On the one hand, it is argued that high prevalence of comorbidity imply common risk factors (biological, cognitive- emotional and socio-cultural) and a causal relationship between these mental illness, usually conduct disorder preceding major depression. On the other hand, independent nosological status of this comorbidity» is advocated on the basis of several external criteria (e.g. response to treatment, course into adulthood and psychopathological profile), which distinguish this mixed clinical entity from conduct disorder and major depression, especially the latter category. These findings are discussed concerning the classification of «depressive conduct disorder» within current diagnosis reference manuals

Teleoperation of industrial robot manipulators based on augmented reality

This research develops a novel teleoperation for robot manipulators based on augmented reality. The proposed interface is equipped with full capabilities in order to replace the classical teach pendant of the robot for carrying out teleoperation tasks. The proposed interface is based on an augmented reality headset for projecting computer-generated graphics onto the real environment and a gamepad to interact with the computer-generated graphics and provide robot commands. In order to demonstrate the benefits of the proposed method, several usability tests were conducted using a 6R industrial robot manipulator in order to compare the proposed interface and the conventional teach pendant interface for teleoperation tasks. In particular, the results of these usability tests show that the proposed approach is more intuitive, ergonomic, and easy to use. Furthermore, the comparison results also show that the proposed method clearly improves the velocity of the teleoperation task, regardless of the user's previous experience in robotics and augmented reality technology

The SINGLE FLOWER (SFL) gene encodes a MYB transcription factor that regulates the number of flowers produced by the inflorescence of chickpea

[EN] Legumes usually have compound inflorescences, where flowers/pods develop from secondary inflorescences (I2), formed laterally at the primary inflorescence (I1). Number of flowers per I2, characteristic of each legume species, has important ecological and evolutionary relevance as it determines diversity in inflorescence architecture; moreover, it is also agronomically important for its potential impact on yield. Nevertheless, the genetic network controlling the number of flowers per I2 is virtually unknown. Chickpea (Cicer arietinum) typically produces one flower per I2 but single flower (sfl) mutants produce two (double-pod phenotype). We isolated the SFL gene by mapping the sfl-d mutation and identifying and characterising a second mutant allele. We analysed the effect of sfl on chickpea inflorescence ontogeny with scanning electron microscopy and studied the expression of SFL and meristem identity genes by RNA in situ hybridisation. We show that SFL corresponds to CaRAX1/2a, which codes a MYB transcription factor specifically expressed in the I2 meristem. Our findings reveal SFL as a central factor controlling chickpea inflorescence architecture, acting in the I2 meristem to regulate the length of the period for which it remains active, and therefore determining the number of floral meristems that it can produce.We thank Ludovico Dreni for advice on phylogenetic analysis and M. J. Domenech for efficient technical assistance. We also thank C. Ferrandiz, M. A. Blazquez and J. L. Weller for helpful discussions and critical reading. Work at the FM laboratory was financed through grants from the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia Innovacion y Universidades, FEDER and Generalitat Valenciana (BIO2015-64307-R, PGC2018-099232-B-I00 and Prometeo/2019/004). Work at IFAPA and UCO has been supported by INIA project RTA2017-00041-00-00, co-financed by the European Union through the ERDF2014-2020 'Programa Operativo de Crecimiento Inteligente'. CC acknowledges her PhD fellowship INIA-CCAA.Caballo, C.; Berbel Tornero, A.; Ortega, R.; Gil, J.; Millán, T.; Rubio, J.; Madueño Albi, F. (2022). The SINGLE FLOWER (SFL) gene encodes a MYB transcription factor that regulates the number of flowers produced by the inflorescence of chickpea. New Phytologist. 234(3):827-836. https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.18019827836234