Epidemiological science and cancer control

Epidemiological methods are essential for the discovery of cancer risks and prognostic factors as well as for the evaluation of cancer prevention measures. In this review, we discuss epidemiological surveillance procedures for data collection and processing to guide and evaluate the consequences of anticancer efforts for populations, assess the identification of cancer risk factors, examine barriers to cancer screening and recommended rules for early diagnosis programs. Epidemiological studies have shown that hindrances to cancer information assessment are currently encountered in developing countries. Known cancer risk factors include social determinants, lifestyle factors, occupational exposures, infectious agents, and genetic and epigenetic alterations. Challenges remain in studying the effectiveness of cancer screening; screening can have detrimental effects, and few cancers clearly benefit from screening. Currently, epidemiology faces the challenge of dealing with distinct levels of data, including factors related to social status, lifestyle and genetics, to reconstruct the causal traits of cancer. Additionally, translating epidemiological knowledge into cancer control demands more implementation studies in the population

Gender and racial inequalities in trends of oral cancer mortality in Sao Paulo, Brazil

OBJETIVO: Analisar tendências recentes da mortalidade por câncer de boca, focalizando diferenças quanto a sexo e raça. MÉTODOS: Foram utilizados dados oficiais de população e mortalidade na cidade de São Paulo entre 2003 e 2009 para estimar coeficientes de mortalidade por câncer de boca (C00-C10, Classificação Internacional de Doenças, 10a Revisão), com ajuste por idade e estratificação por sexo (feminino e masculino) e cor (negros e brancos). Para cálculo de tendências foi utilizado o procedimento de Prais-Winsten de autorregressão para análise de séries temporais. RESULTADOS: No período de estudo, 8.505 indivíduos residentes na cidade morreram de câncer de boca. Os coeficientes apresentaram tendência crescente para mulheres (taxa de crescimento anual = 4,4%, IC95% 1,4;7,5) e estacionária para homens, representando inversão das tendências anteriores entre os sexos, na cidade. Identificou-se tendência crescente para negros, com elevada taxa de aumento anual (9,1%, IC95% 5,5;12,9), e tendência estacionária para brancos. A mortalidade por câncer de boca em negros quase dobrou durante o período e ultrapassou a mortalidade em brancos para quase todas as categorias. CONCLUSÕES: A mortalidade entre mulheres aumentou mais do que entre homens e duplicou entre negros. A vigilância de tendências da mortalidade por câncer de boca entre os estratos de sexo e cor pode contribuir para programas de saúde que reduzam a carga de doença e atenuem diferenças em saúde que são injustas, evitáveis e desnecessárias.OBJETIVO: Analizar tendencias recientes de mortalidad por cáncer de boca, enfocando diferencias con respecto a sexo y raza MÉTODOS: Se utilizaron datos oficiales de población y mortalidad en la ciudad de Sao Paulo (Brasil) entre 2003 y 2009 para estimar coeficientes de mortalidad por cáncer de boca (C00-C10, Clasificación Internacional de Enfermedades, 10ª Revisión), con ajuste por edad y estratificación por sexo (femenino y masculino) y raza (negros y blancos). Para calcular las tendencias se utilizó procedimiento de Prais-Winsten de auto-regresión para análisis de series temporales. RESULTADOS: En el período de estudio, 8505 individuos residentes en la ciudad murieron por cáncer de boca. Los coeficientes presentaron tendencia creciente en mujeres (tasa de crecimiento anual = 4,4%, IC95%: 1,4;7,5) y estacionaria en hombres, representando inversión de las tendencias anteriores entre sexos, en la ciudad. Se identificó tendencia creciente en negros, con elevada tasa de crecimiento anual (9,1%, IC95%:5,5;12,9), y tendencias estacionaras en blancos. La mortalidad por cáncer de boca en negros casi se duplicó durante el período y sobrepasó la mortalidad en blancos para casi todas las categorías. CONCLUSIONES: la mortalidad entre mujeres aumentó más que en hombres y se duplicó en negros. La vigilancia de tendencias de mortalidad por cáncer de boca entre los estratos de sexo y raza puede contribuir en programas de salud que reduzcan la carga de enfermedad, y atenúen las diferencias que son injustas, evitables e innecesarias.OBJECTIVE: To analyse recent trends in oral cancer mortality, focusing specifically on differences concerning gender and race. METHODS: Official information on deaths and population in the city of Sao Paulo, 2003 to 2009, were used to estimate mortality rates from oral cancer (C00 to C10, International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision), adjusted for age and stratified by gender (females and males) and race (blacks and whites). The Prais-Winsten auto-regression procedure was used to analyse the time series. RESULTS: During the study period, 8,505 individuals living in the city of Sao Paulo died of oral cancer. Rates increased for females (rate of yearly increase = 4.4%, 95%CI 1.4;7.5), and levelled off for men, which represents an inversion of previous trends among genders in the city. Increases were identified for blacks, with a high rate of yearly increase of 9.1% (95%CI 5.5;12.9), and levelled off for whites. Oral cancer mortality in blacks almost doubled during the study period, and surpassed mortality in whites for almost all categories. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality presented a higher increase among women than in men, and it doubled among backs. The surveillance of trends of oral cancer mortality across gender and racial groups may contribute to implementing socially appropriate health policies, which concurrently reduce the burden of disease and the attenuation of unfair, avoidable and unnecessary inequalities in health

Covid-19 hospital mortality using spatial hierarchical models: cohort design with 74,994 registers

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between covid-19 hospital mortality and risk factors, innovating by considering contextual and individual factors and spatial dependency and using data from the city of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: The study was performed with a spatial hierarchical retrospective cohort design using secondary data (individuals and contextual data) from hospitalized patients and their geographic unit residences. The study period corresponded to the first year of the pandemic, from February 25, 2020 to February 24, 2021. Mortality was modeled with the Bayesian context, Bernoulli probability distribution, and the integrated nested Laplace approximations. The demographic, distal, medial, and proximal covariates were considered. RESULTS: We found that per capita income, a contextual covariate, was a protective factor (odds ratio: 0.76 [95% credible interval: 0.74–0.78]). After adjusting for income, the other adjustments revealed no differences in spatial dependence. Without income inequality in São Paulo, the spatial risk of death would be close to one in the city. Other factors associated with high covid-19 hospital mortality were male sex, advanced age, comorbidities, ventilation, treatment in public healthcare settings, and experiencing the first covid-19 symptoms between January 24 and February 24, 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Other than sex and age differences, geographic income inequality was the main factor responsible for the spatial differences in the risk of covid-19 hospital mortality. Investing in public policies to reduce socioeconomic inequities, infection prevention, and other intersectoral measures should focus on lower per capita income, to control covid-19 hospital mortalit

Spatial Clusters of Cancer Mortality in Brazil: A Machine Learning Modeling Approach

Objectives: Our aim was to test if machine learning algorithms can predict cancer mortality (CM) at an ecological level and use these results to identify statistically significant spatial clusters of excess cancer mortality (eCM).Methods: Age-standardized CM was extracted from the official databases of Brazil. Predictive features included sociodemographic and health coverage variables. Machine learning algorithms were selected and trained with 70% of the data, and the performance was tested with the remaining 30%. Clusters of eCM were identified using SatScan. Additionally, separate analyses were performed for the 10 most frequent cancer types.Results: The gradient boosting trees algorithm presented the highest coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.66). For total cancer, all algorithms overlapped in the region of Bagé (27% eCM). For esophageal cancer, all algorithms overlapped in west Rio Grande do Sul (48%–96% eCM). The most significant cluster for stomach cancer was in Macapá (82% eCM). The most important variables were the percentage of the white population and residents with computers.Conclusion: We found consistent and well-defined geographic regions in Brazil with significantly higher than expected cancer mortality

Oral health in the agenda of priorities in public health

Este estudo descreve a produção científica sobre saúde bucal veiculada na Revista de Saúde Pública, nos cinquenta anos de sua publicação. Foi realizado estudo de revisão narrativa, utilizando o PubMed como mecanismo de busca que indexa todos os fascículos da revista. De 1967 a 2015, foram publicados 162 manuscritos com foco específico em temas de saúde bucal. Essa temática esteve presente em todos os volumes da revista, com participação crescente ao longo dos anos. Cárie dentária foi o tema mais estudado, marcando presença constante na revista desde seu primeiro fascículo. Doença periodontal, fluorose, oclusopatias e outros temas emergiram antes mesmo do declínio dos indicadores de cárie. Políticas de saúde bucal é o tema mais recorrente nas duas últimas décadas. A Revista de Saúde Pública tem sido importante veículo de divulgação, comunicação e reflexão sobre saúde bucal, contribuindo de modo relevante para a interação técnico-científica entre os profissionais da área.This study describes the scientific production on oral health diffused in Revista de Saúde Pública, in the 50 years of its publication. A narrative review study was carried out using PubMed, as it is the search database that indexes all issues of the journal. From 1967 to 2015, 162 manuscripts specifically focused on oral health themes were published. This theme was present in all volumes of the journal, with increasing participation over the years. Dental caries was the most studied theme, constantly present in the journal since its first issue. Periodontal disease, fluorosis, malocclusions, and other themes emerged even before the decline of dental caries indicators. Oral health policy is the most recurring theme in the last two decades. Revista de Saúde Pública has been an important vehicle for dissemination, communication, and reflection on oral health, contributing in a relevant way to the technical-scientific interaction between professionals in this field

Effect of HPV on head and neck cancer patient survival, by region and tumor site: A comparison of 1362 cases across three continents

Objectives: To explore whether HPV-related biomarkers predict oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer (OPSCC) survival similarly across different global regions, and to explore their prognostic utility among non-oropharyngeal (non-OP) head and neck cancers. Methods: Data from 1362 head and neck SCC (HNSCC) diagnosed 2002–2011 was used from epidemiologic studies in: Brazil (GENCAPO study, n = 388), U.S. (CHANCE study, n = 472), and Europe (ARCAGE study, n = 502). Tumors were centrally tested for p16INK4a and HPV16 DNA (by PCR). Risk of mortality was examined using Cox proportional hazard models. Results: There were 517 OPSCC and 845 non-OP HNSCC. Cases were primarily male (81%), ever smokers (91%), with median age of 58 years and median follow-up of 3.1 years (IQR = 1.4–5.9). Among OPSCC, the risk of mortality was significantly lower among 184 HPV-related (i.e., p16+/HPV16+) compared to 333 HPV-unrelated (p16- and/or HPV16-) cases (HR = 0.25, 95%CI = 0.18–0.34). Mortality was reduced among HPV-related OPSCC cases from the U.S., Europe, and Brazil (each p ⩽ 0.01) and after adjustment, remained significantly reduced (aHR = 0.34, 95%CI = 0.24–0.49). Among non-OP HNSCC, neither p16 (aHR = 0.83, 95%CI = 0.60–1.14), HPV16 DNA (aHR = 1.20, 95%CI = 0.89–1.63), or p16+/HPV16+ (aHR = 0.59, 95%CI = 0.32–1.08) was a significantly predictor of mortality. When interaction was tested, the effect of HPV16/p16 was significantly different in OPSCC than non-OP HNSCC (p-interaction = 0.02). Conclusion: HPV-related OPSCCs had similar survival benefits across these three regions. Prognostic utility of HPV among non-OP HNSCC is limited so tumor HPV/p16 testing should not be routinely done among non-OP HNSCC

Investigating the effect of sexual behaviour on oropharyngeal cancer risk:a methodological assessment of Mendelian randomization

BACKGROUND: Human papilloma virus infection is known to influence oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) risk, likely via sexual transmission. However, sexual behaviour has been correlated with other risk factors including smoking and alcohol, meaning independent effects are difficult to establish. We aimed to evaluate the causal effect of sexual behaviour on the risk of OPC using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHODS: Genetic variants robustly associated with age at first sex (AFS) and the number of sexual partners (NSP) were used to perform both univariable and multivariable MR analyses with summary data on 2641 OPC cases and 6585 controls, obtained from the largest available genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Given the potential for genetic pleiotropy, we performed a number of sensitivity analyses: (i) MR methods to account for horizontal pleiotropy, (ii) MR of sexual behaviours on positive (cervical cancer and seropositivity for Chlamydia trachomatis) and negative control outcomes (lung and oral cancer), (iii) Causal Analysis Using Summary Effect estimates (CAUSE), to account for correlated and uncorrelated horizontal pleiotropic effects, (iv) multivariable MR analysis to account for the effects of smoking, alcohol, risk tolerance and educational attainment. RESULTS: In univariable MR, we found evidence supportive of an effect of both later AFS (IVW OR = 0.4, 95%CI (0.3, 0.7), per standard deviation (SD), p = < 0.001) and increasing NSP (IVW OR = 2.2, 95%CI (1.3, 3.8) per SD, p = < 0.001) on OPC risk. These effects were largely robust to sensitivity analyses accounting for horizontal pleiotropy. However, negative control analysis suggested potential violation of the core MR assumptions and subsequent CAUSE analysis implicated pleiotropy of the genetic instruments used to proxy sexual behaviours. Finally, there was some attenuation of the univariable MR results in the multivariable models (AFS IVW OR = 0.7, 95%CI (0.4, 1.2), p = 0.21; NSP IVW OR = 0.9, 95%CI (0.5 1.7), p = 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Despite using genetic variants strongly related sexual behaviour traits in large-scale GWAS, we found evidence for correlated pleiotropy. This emphasizes a need for multivariable approaches and the triangulation of evidence when performing MR of complex behavioural traits. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-022-02233-3

Role of fried foods and oral/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers

We investigated the role of fried foods on oral-pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers, using data from two case–control studies conducted in Italy and Switzerland between 1992 and 1999, one with a total of 749 (634 men) cases of oral/pharyngeal cancer and 1772 (1252 men) controls, the other with 395 (351 men) cases of oesophageal cancer and 1066 (875 men) controls. Controls were admitted for acute, non-neoplastic conditions, unrelated to alcohol and smoking consumption. After allowance for sex, age, centre, education, body mass index, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking and nonalcohol energy intake, the multivariate odds ratios (ORs) for an increment of one portion per week of total fried foods were 1.11 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05–1.17) for oral-pharyngeal and 1.16 (95% CI: 1.08–1.26) for oesophageal cancer. The ORs were consistent across strata of gender (OR in men only were 1.10 and 1.16, respectively), age, alcohol, tobacco consumption and body mass index

Association between Mediterranean diet and head and neck cancer: Results of a large case-control study in Italy

The Mediterranean diet (MD) is a known protective factor for head and neck cancer (HNC); however, there is still a lack of studies investigating this association by HNC subsite. The aim of the present study was therefore to evaluate the association between adherence to MD and HNC overall and by cancer subsite, as well as the effect of the individual food components on HNC risk. A case-control study was carried out at the Gemelli Hospital of Rome (Italy). A total of 500 HNC cases and 433 controls were interviewed. Dietary intake was assessed through a validated food frequency questionnaire that collected information on over 25 food items. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of HNC were calculated using a multiple logistic regression model. We found a reduced risk of both oral cavity and pharynx cancer (OR=0.61; CI: 0.54-0.70) and larynx cancer (OR=0.64; CI: 0.56-0.73) with increasing adherence to MD. We also found a high consumption of fruit, vegetables, and legumes to be significantly associated with a lower risk of larynx as well as oral cavity and pharynx cancers. Our study showed that adherence to MD acts protectively against HNC overall and by cancer subsite