Optimal Economic Growth under Stochastic Environmental Impact: Sensitivity Analysis

In this work we present an approach toward the sensitivity analysis of optimal economic growth to a negative environmental impact driven by random natural hazards that damage the production output . We use a simplified model of the GDP whose growth leads to the increase of GHG in the atmosphere provided investment in cleaning is insufficient. The hypothesis of the Poisson probability distribution of the natural hazards is used at the first stage of the research. We apply the standard utility function - the discounted integral consumption and construct an optimal investment policy in production and cleaning together with optimal GDP trajectories. We calibrate the model in the global scale and analyze the sensitivity of obtained optimal growth scenarios with respect to uncertain parameters of the Poisson distribution

Large orders in strong-field QED

We address the issue of large-order expansions in strong-field QED. Our approach is based on the one-loop effective action encoded in the associated photon polarisation tensor. We concentrate on the simple case of crossed fields aiming at possible applications of high-power lasers to measure vacuum birefringence. A simple next-to-leading order derivative expansion reveals that the indices of refraction increase with frequency. This signals normal dispersion in the small-frequency regime where the derivative expansion makes sense. To gain information beyond that regime we determine the factorial growth of the derivative expansion coefficients evaluating the first 80 orders by means of computer algebra. From this we can infer a nonperturbative imaginary part for the indices of refraction indicating absorption (pair production) as soon as energy and intensity become (super)critical. These results compare favourably with an analytic evaluation of the polarisation tensor asymptotics. Kramers-Kronig relations finally allow for a nonperturbative definition of the real parts as well and show that absorption goes hand in hand with anomalous dispersion for sufficiently large frequencies and fields.Comment: 26 pages, 6 figure

Avoidance of tobacco health warnings? An eye-tracking approach.

Aims: Among three eye-tracking studies, we examined how cigarette pack features affected visual attention and self-reported avoidance of and reactance to warnings. Design: Study 1: smoking status × warning immediacy (short-term versus long-term health consequences) × warning location (top versus bottom of pack). Study 2: smoking status × warning framing (gain-framed versus loss-framed) × warning format (text-only versus pictorial). Study 3: smoking status × warning severity (highly severe versus moderately severe consequences of smoking). Setting: University of Bristol, UK, eye-tracking laboratory. Participants: Study 1: non-smokers (n = 25), weekly smokers (n = 25) and daily smokers (n = 25). Study 2: non-smokers (n = 37), smokers contemplating quitting (n = 37) and smokers not contemplating quitting (n = 43). Study 3: non-smokers (n = 27), weekly smokers (n = 26) and daily smokers (n = 26). Measurements: For all studies: visual attention, measured as the ratio of the number of fixations to the warning versus the branding, self-reported predicted avoidance of and reactance to warnings and for study 3, effect of warning on quitting motivation. Findings: Study 1: greater self-reported avoidance [mean difference (MD) = 1.14; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.94, 1.35, P  0.25). Study 3: greater self-reported avoidance of (MD = 0.37; 95% CI = 0.25, 0.48, P < 0.001, η p 2 = 0.33) and reactance to (MD = 0.14; 95% CI = 0.05, 0.23, P = 0.003, η p 2 = 0.11) highly severe warnings but findings were inconclusive as to whether there was a difference in visual attention (MD = –0.55; 95% CI = –1.5, 0.41, P = 0.24, η p 2 = 0.02). Conclusions: Subjective and objective (eye-tracking) measures of avoidance of health warnings on cigarette packs produce different results, suggesting these measure different constructs. Visual avoidance of warnings indicates low-level disengagement with warnings, while self-reported predicted avoidance reflects higher-level engagement with warnings

Small group interventions for children aged 5-9 years old with mathematical learning difficulties

The research related to educational interventions for children with mathematical learning difficulties has been increasing steadily. In this chapter I focus on small group interventions for children aged 5–9 years old with learning difficulties in mathematics. First, I describe the important issues: (1) who are the children having problems in mathematics, (2) what do we mean with (special) education intervention, (3) what does Responsiveness to Intervention mean, and (4) what intervention features have been found effective for children aged 5–9 years with learning difficulties in mathematics. Then, I describe the research and developmental work that has been done in Finland on designing web services which provide evidence-based information and materials for educators. The two web services are LukiMat and ThinkMath. Together, these two web services include the knowledge base, assessment batteries and intervention tools to be used in relation to mathematical learning difficulties in the age group 5–9 years.Peer reviewe

External Fields as a Probe for Fundamental Physics

Quantum vacuum experiments are becoming a flexible tool for investigating fundamental physics. They are particularly powerful for searching for new light but weakly interacting degrees of freedom and are thus complementary to accelerator-driven experiments. I review recent developments in this field, focusing on optical experiments in strong electromagnetic fields. In order to characterize potential optical signatures, I discuss various low-energy effective actions which parameterize the interaction of particle-physics candidates with optical photons and external electromagnetic fields. Experiments with an electromagnetized quantum vacuum and optical probes do not only have the potential to collect evidence for new physics, but special-purpose setups can also distinguish between different particle-physics scenarios and extract information about underlying microscopic properties.Comment: 12 pages, plenary talk at QFEXT07, Leipzig, September 200

Predicting restoration of kidney function during CRRT-free intervals

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Renal failure is common in critically ill patients and frequently requires continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). CRRT is discontinued at regular intervals for routine changes of the disposable equipment or for replacing clogged filter membrane assemblies. The present study was conducted to determine if the necessity to continue CRRT could be predicted during the CRRT-free period.</p> <p>Materials and methods</p> <p>In the period from 2003 to 2006, 605 patients were treated with CRRT in our ICU. A total of 222 patients with 448 CRRT-free intervals had complete data sets and were used for analysis. Of the total CRRT-free periods, 225 served as an evaluation group. Twenty-nine parameters with an assumed influence on kidney function were analyzed with regard to their potential to predict the restoration of kidney function during the CRRT-free interval. Using univariate analysis and logistic regression, a prospective index was developed and validated in the remaining 223 CRRT-free periods to establish its prognostic strength.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Only three parameters showed an independent influence on the restoration of kidney function during CRRT-free intervals: the number of previous CRRT cycles (medians in the two outcome groups: 1 vs. 2), the "Sequential Organ Failure Assessment"-score (means in the two outcome groups: 8.3 vs. 9.2) and urinary output after the cessation of CRRT (medians in two outcome groups: 66 ml/h vs. 10 ml/h). The prognostic index, which was calculated from these three variables, showed a satisfactory potential to predict the kidney function during the CRRT-free intervals; Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0.798.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Restoration of kidney function during CRRT-free periods can be predicted with an index calculated from three variables. Prospective trials in other hospitals must clarify whether our results are generally transferable to other patient populations.</p

Search for Doubly-Charged Higgs Boson Production at HERA

A search for the single production of doubly-charged Higgs bosons H^{\pm \pm} in ep collisions is presented. The signal is searched for via the Higgs decays into a high mass pair of same charge leptons, one of them being an electron. The analysis uses up to 118 pb^{-1} of ep data collected by the H1 experiment at HERA. No evidence for doubly-charged Higgs production is observed and mass dependent upper limits are derived on the Yukawa couplings h_{el} of the Higgs boson to an electron-lepton pair. Assuming that the doubly-charged Higgs only decays into an electron and a muon via a coupling of electromagnetic strength h_{e \mu} = \sqrt{4 \pi \alpha_{em}} = 0.3, a lower limit of 141 GeV on the H^{\pm\pm} mass is obtained at the 95% confidence level. For a doubly-charged Higgs decaying only into an electron and a tau and a coupling h_{e\tau} = 0.3, masses below 112 GeV are ruled out.Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Structure and Age Jointly Influence Rates of Protein Evolution

What factors determine a protein's rate of evolution are actively debated. Especially unclear is the relative role of intrinsic factors of present-day proteins versus historical factors such as protein age. Here we study the interplay of structural properties and evolutionary age, as determinants of protein evolutionary rate. We use a large set of one-to-one orthologs between human and mouse proteins, with mapped PDB structures. We report that previously observed structural correlations also hold within each age group – including relationships between solvent accessibility, designabililty, and evolutionary rates. However, age also plays a crucial role: age modulates the relationship between solvent accessibility and rate. Additionally, younger proteins, despite being less designable, tend to evolve faster than older proteins. We show that previously reported relationships between age and rate cannot be explained by structural biases among age groups. Finally, we introduce a knowledge-based potential function to study the stability of proteins through large-scale computation. We find that older proteins are more stable for their native structure, and more robust to mutations, than younger ones. Our results underscore that several determinants, both intrinsic and historical, can interact to determine rates of protein evolution