Variation in Decision Making

publication-status: PublishedVariation in how organisms allocate their behavior over their lifetimes is key to determining Darwinian fitness, and thus the evolution of human and non-human decision making. In this chapter, we explore how decision making varies across biologically and societally significant scales and what role such variation plays when trying to understand decision making from an evolutionary perspective. In the process, we highlight the importance of explicitly considering variation both when attempting to predict economically and socially important patterns of behavior, and to obtain a deeper understanding of the fundamental biological processes involved. We conclude by identifying key elements of a framework for incorporating variation into a general theory of Darwinian decision making

Should patients with abnormal liver function tests in primary care be tested for chronic viral hepatitis: cost minimisation analysis based on a comprehensively tested cohort

Background Liver function tests (LFTs) are ordered in large numbers in primary care, and the Birmingham and Lambeth Liver Evaluation Testing Strategies (BALLETS) study was set up to assess their usefulness in patients with no pre-existing or self-evident liver disease. All patients were tested for chronic viral hepatitis thereby providing an opportunity to compare various strategies for detection of this serious treatable disease. Methods This study uses data from the BALLETS cohort to compare various testing strategies for viral hepatitis in patients who had received an abnormal LFT result. The aim was to inform a strategy for identification of patients with chronic viral hepatitis. We used a cost-minimisation analysis to define a base case and then calculated the incremental cost per case detected to inform a strategy that could guide testing for chronic viral hepatitis. Results Of the 1,236 study patients with an abnormal LFT, 13 had chronic viral hepatitis (nine hepatitis B and four hepatitis C). The strategy advocated by the current guidelines (repeating the LFT with a view to testing for specific disease if it remained abnormal) was less efficient (more expensive per case detected) than a simple policy of testing all patients for viral hepatitis without repeating LFTs. A more selective strategy of viral testing all patients for viral hepatitis if they were born in countries where viral hepatitis was prevalent provided high efficiency with little loss of sensitivity. A notably high alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level (greater than twice the upper limit of normal) on the initial ALT test had high predictive value, but was insensitive, missing half the cases of viral infection. Conclusions Based on this analysis and on widely accepted clinical principles, a "fast and frugal" heuristic was produced to guide general practitioners with respect to diagnosing cases of viral hepatitis in asymptomatic patients with abnormal LFTs. It recommends testing all patients where a clear clinical indication of infection is present (e.g. evidence of intravenous drug use), followed by testing all patients who originated from countries where viral hepatitis is prevalent, and finally testing those who have a notably raised ALT level (more than twice the upper limit of normal). Patients not picked up by this efficient algorithm had a risk of chronic viral hepatitis that is lower than the general population

Autism as a disorder of neural information processing: directions for research and targets for therapy

The broad variation in phenotypes and severities within autism spectrum disorders suggests the involvement of multiple predisposing factors, interacting in complex ways with normal developmental courses and gradients. Identification of these factors, and the common developmental path into which theyfeed, is hampered bythe large degrees of convergence from causal factors to altered brain development, and divergence from abnormal brain development into altered cognition and behaviour. Genetic, neurochemical, neuroimaging and behavioural findings on autism, as well as studies of normal development and of genetic syndromes that share symptoms with autism, offer hypotheses as to the nature of causal factors and their possible effects on the structure and dynamics of neural systems. Such alterations in neural properties may in turn perturb activity-dependent development, giving rise to a complex behavioural syndrome many steps removed from the root causes. Animal models based on genetic, neurochemical, neurophysiological, and behavioural manipulations offer the possibility of exploring these developmental processes in detail, as do human studies addressing endophenotypes beyond the diagnosis itself

Composing first species counterpoint with a variable neighbourhood search algorithm

In this article, a variable neighbourhood search (VNS) algorithm is developed that can generate musical fragments consisting of a melody for the cantus firmus and the first species counterpoint. The objective function of the algorithm is based on a quantification of existing rules for counterpoint. The VNS algorithm developed in this article is a local search algorithm that starts from a randomly generated melody and improves it by changing one or two notes at a time. A thorough parametric analysis of the VNS reveals the significance of the algorithm's parameters on the quality of the composed fragment, as well as their optimal settings. A comparison of the VNS algorithm with a developed genetic algorithm shows that the VNS is more efficient. The VNS algorithm has been implemented in a user-friendly software environment for composition, called Optimuse. Optimuse allows a user to specify a number of characteristics such as length, key and mode. Based on this information, Optimuse 'composes' both cantus firmus and first species counterpoint. Alternatively, the user may specify a cantus firmus, and let Optimuse compose the accompanying first species counterpoint. © 2012 Taylor & Francis

Statistical colocalization of genetic risk variants for related autoimmune diseases in the context of common controls.

Determining whether potential causal variants for related diseases are shared can identify overlapping etiologies of multifactorial disorders. Colocalization methods disentangle shared and distinct causal variants. However, existing approaches require independent data sets. Here we extend two colocalization methods to allow for the shared-control design commonly used in comparison of genome-wide association study results across diseases. Our analysis of four autoimmune diseases--type 1 diabetes (T1D), rheumatoid arthritis, celiac disease and multiple sclerosis--identified 90 regions that were associated with at least one disease, 33 (37%) of which were associated with 2 or more disorders. Nevertheless, for 14 of these 33 shared regions, there was evidence that the causal variants differed. We identified new disease associations in 11 regions previously associated with one or more of the other 3 disorders. Four of eight T1D-specific regions contained known type 2 diabetes (T2D) candidate genes (COBL, GLIS3, RNLS and BCAR1), suggesting a shared cellular etiology.MF is funded by the Wellcome Trust (099772). CW and HG are funded by the Wellcome Trust (089989). This work was funded by the JDRF (9–2011–253), the Wellcome Trust (091157) and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre. The Cambridge Institute for Medical Research (CIMR) is in receipt of a Wellcome Trust Strategic Award (100140). ImmunoBase.org is supported by Eli Lilly and Company. We thank the UK Medical Research Council and Wellcome Trust for funding the collection of DNA for the British 1958 Birth Cohort (MRC grant G0000934, WT grant 068545/Z/02). DNA control samples were prepared and provided by S. Ring, R. Jones, M. Pembrey, W. McArdle, D. Strachan and P. Burton. Biotec Cluster M4, the Fidelity Biosciences Research Initiative, Research Foundation Flanders, Research Fund KU Leuven, the Belgian Charcot Foundation, Gemeinntzige Hertie Stiftung, University Zurich, the Danish MS Society, the Danish Council for Strategic Research, the Academy of Finland, the Sigrid Juselius Foundation, Helsinki University, the Italian MS Foundation, Fondazione Cariplo, the Italian Ministry of University and Research, the Torino Savings Bank Foundation, the Italian Ministry of Health, the Italian Institute of Experimental Neurology, the MS Association of Oslo, the Norwegian Research Council, the South–Eastern Norwegian Health Authorities, the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, the Dutch MS Foundation and Kaiser Permanente. Marina Evangelou is thanked for motivating the investigation of the FASLG association.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available at http://www.nature.com/ng/journal/v47/n7/full/ng.3330.html

How does study quality affect the results of a diagnostic meta-analysis?

Background: The use of systematic literature review to inform evidence based practice in diagnostics is rapidly expanding. Although the primary diagnostic literature is extensive, studies are often of low methodological quality or poorly reported. There has been no rigorously evaluated, evidence based tool to assess the methodological quality of diagnostic studies. The primary objective of this study was to determine the extent to which variations in the quality of primary studies impact the results of a diagnostic meta-analysis and whether this differs with diagnostic test type. A secondary objective was to contribute to the evaluation of QUADAS, an evidence-based tool for the assessment of quality in diagnostic accuracy studies. Methods: This study was conducted as part of large systematic review of tests used in the diagnosis and further investigation of urinary tract infection (UTI) in children. All studies included in this review were assessed using QUADAS, an evidence-based tool for the assessment of quality in systematic reviews of diagnostic accuracy studies. The impact of individual components of QUADAS on a summary measure of diagnostic accuracy was investigated using regression analysis. The review divided the diagnosis and further investigation of UTI into the following three clinical stages: diagnosis of UTI, localisation of infection, and further investigation of the UTI. Each stage used different types of diagnostic test, which were considered to involve different quality concerns. Results: Many of the studies included in our review were poorly reported. The proportion of QUADAS items fulfilled was similar for studies in different sections of the review. However, as might be expected, the individual items fulfilled differed between the three clinical stages. Regression analysis found that different items showed a strong association with test performance for the different tests evaluated. These differences were observed both within and between the three clinical stages assessed by the review. The results of regression analyses were also affected by whether or not a weighting (by sample size) was applied. Our analysis was severely limited by the completeness of reporting and the differences between the index tests evaluated and the reference standards used to confirm diagnoses in the primary studies. Few tests were evaluated by sufficient studies to allow meaningful use of meta-analytic pooling and investigation of heterogeneity. This meant that further analysis to investigate heterogeneity could only be undertaken using a subset of studies, and that the findings are open to various interpretations. Conclusion: Further work is needed to investigate the influence of methodological quality on the results of diagnostic meta-analyses. Large data sets of well-reported primary studies are needed to address this question. Without significant improvements in the completeness of reporting of primary studies, progress in this area will be limited

Genomics meets HIV-1

Genomics is now a core element in the effort to develop a vaccine against HIV-1. Thanks to unprecedented progress in high-throughput genotyping and sequencing, in knowledge about genetic variation in humans, and in evolutionary genomics, it is finally possible to systematically search the genome for common genetic variants that influence the human response to HIV-1. The identification of such variants would help to determine which aspects of the response to the virus are the most promising targets for intervention. However, a key obstacle to progress remains the scarcity of appropriate human cohorts available for genomic research

Pharmacogenomics in diabetes mellitus:insights into drug action and drug discovery

Genomic studies have greatly advanced our understanding of the multifactorial aetiology of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) as well as the multiple subtypes of monogenic diabetes mellitus. In this Review, we discuss the existing pharmacogenetic evidence in both monogenic diabetes mellitus and T2DM. We highlight mechanistic insights from the study of adverse effects and the efficacy of antidiabetic drugs. The identification of extreme sulfonylurea sensitivity in patients with diabetes mellitus owing to heterozygous mutations in HNF1A represents a clear example of how pharmacogenetics can direct patient care. However, pharmacogenomic studies of response to antidiabetic drugs in T2DM has yet to be translated into clinical practice, although some moderate genetic effects have now been described that merit follow-up in trials in which patients are selected according to genotype. We also discuss how future pharmacogenomic findings could provide insights into treatment response in diabetes mellitus that, in addition to other areas of human genetics, facilitates drug discovery and drug development for T2DM.</p

Predicting survival of de novo metastatic breast cancer in Asian women: Systematic review and validation study

10.1371/journal.pone.0093755PLoS ONE94-POLN

Tephrochronology

Tephrochronology is the use of primary, characterized tephras or cryptotephras as chronostratigraphic marker beds to connect and synchronize geological, paleoenvironmental, or archaeological sequences or events, or soils/paleosols, and, uniquely, to transfer relative or numerical ages or dates to them using stratigraphic and age information together with mineralogical and geochemical compositional data, especially from individual glass-shard analyses, obtained for the tephra/cryptotephra deposits. To function as an age-equivalent correlation and chronostratigraphic dating tool, tephrochronology may be undertaken in three steps: (i) mapping and describing tephras and determining their stratigraphic relationships, (ii) characterizing tephras or cryptotephras in the laboratory, and (iii) dating them using a wide range of geochronological methods. Tephrochronology is also an important tool in volcanology, informing studies on volcanic petrology, volcano eruption histories and hazards, and volcano-climate forcing. Although limitations and challenges remain, multidisciplinary applications of tephrochronology continue to grow markedly