Constraining Theories of SiO Maser Polarization: Analysis of a pipi/2 EVPA Change

The full theory of polarized SiO maser emission from the near-circumstellar environment of Asymptotic Giant Branch stars has been the subject of debate, with theories ranging from classical Zeeman origins to predominantly non-Zeeman anisotropic excitation or propagation effects. Features with an internal electric vector position angle (EVPA) rotation of $\sim \pi /2$ offer unique constraints on theoretical models. In this work, results are presented for one such feature that persisted across five epochs of SiO $\nu=1, J=1-0$ VLBA observations of TX Cam. We examine the fit to the predicted dependence of linear polarization and EVPA on angle ($\theta$) between the line of sight and the magnetic field against theoretical models. We also present results on the dependence of $m_c$ on $\theta$ and their theoretical implications. Finally, we discuss potential causes of the observed differences, and continuing work

The impact of three evidence-based programmes delivered in public systems in Birmingham, UK

The Birmingham Brighter Futures strategy was informed by epidemiological data on child well-being and evidence on “what works,” and included the implementation and evaluation of three evidence-based programmes in regular children’s services systems, as well as an integrated prospective cost-effectiveness analysis (reported elsewhere). A randomised controlled trial (RCT) of the Incredible Years BASIC parenting programme involved 161 children aged three and four at risk of a social-emotional or behavioural disorder. An RCT of the universal PATHS social-emotional learning curriculum involved children aged four–six years in 56 primary schools. An RCT of the Level 4 Group Triple-P parenting programme involved parents of 146 children aged four–nine years with potential social-emotional or behavioural disorders. All three studies used validated standardised measures. Both parenting programme trials used parentcompleted measures of child and parenting behaviour. The school-based trial used teacher reports of children’s behaviour, emotions, and social competence. Incredible Years yielded reductions in negative parenting behaviours among parents, reductions in child behaviour problems, and improvements in children’s relationships. In the PATHS trial, modest improvements in emotional health and behavioural development after one year disappeared by the end of year two. There were no effects for Triple-P. Much can be learned from the strengths and limitations of the Birmingham experience

Scaling up as catachresis

The metaphor of scaling up is the wrong one to use for describing and prescribing educational change. Many of the strategies being employed to achieve scaling up are counter-productive: they conceive of practitioners as delivery agents or consumers, rather than as co-constructors of change. An approach to educational innovation based on the concept of taking local innovations to scale carries the danger of turning schools into franchises and of reducing the global diversity of educational ideas. Sound educational ideas get scaled up not only (or primarily) through a linear, topdown model that begins with a laboratory test and ends with a road show of workshops and training sessions. They also get scaled up-in the sense of disseminated and then adapted in ways that change practice-through researchers sharing with practitioners thickly described, contextualized examples of innovative practices and then inviting practitioners to decide how best to adapt these innovative practices for their local settings

Benefit-Cost Analysis of FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grants

Mitigation ameliorates the impact of natural hazards on communities by reducing loss of life and injury, property and environmental damage, and social and economic disruption. The potential to reduce these losses brings many benefits, but every mitigation activity has a cost that must be considered in our world of limited resources. In principle benefit-cost analysis (BCA) can be used to assess a mitigation activity’s expected net benefits (discounted future benefits less discounted costs), but in practice this often proves difficult. This paper reports on a study that refined BCA methodologies and applied them to a national statistical sample of FEMA mitigation activities over a ten-year period for earthquake, flood, and wind hazards. The results indicate that the overall benefit-cost ratio for FEMA mitigation grants is about 4 to 1, though the ratio varies according to hazard and mitigation type.

Donation without Domination: Private Charity and Republican Liberty

Contemporary republicans have adopted a less-than-charitable attitude toward private beneficence, especially when it is directed to the poor, worrying that rich patrons may be in a position to exercise arbitrary power over their impoverished clients. These concerns have led them to support impartial public provision by way of state welfare programs, including an unconditional basic income (UBI). In contrast to this administrative model of public welfare, I will propose a competitive model in which the state regulates and subsidizes a decentralized and nonstatist provision of support for the poor. This model will fix the historically objectionable features of private provision by having the state prevent collusion among private charities, deliver information to recipients about alternative sources of assistance, and give substantial grants to charities as well as tax incentives and vouchers to donors. I will contend that such an approach would do a better job of minimizing domination of the poor than traditional welfare states and may prove more politically feasible than a UBI, at least in the near term in certain national contexts

Critical patch size generated by Allee effect in gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.)

Allee effects are important dynamical mechanisms in small-density populations in which per capita population growth rate increases with density. When positive density dependence is sufficiently severe (a ‘strong’ Allee effect), a critical density arises below which populations do not persist. For spatially distributed populations subject to dispersal, theory predicts that the occupied area also exhibits a critical threshold for population persistence, but this result has not been confirmed in nature. We tested this prediction in patterns of population persistence across the invasion front of the European gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) in the United States in data collected between 1996 and 2008. Our analysis consistently provided evidence for effects of both population area and density on persistence, as predicted by the general theory, and confirmed here using a mechanistic model developed for the gypsy moth system. We believe this study to be the first empirical documentation of critical patch size induced by an Allee effect

A Macroeconometric Model for Serbia

This paper describes and evaluates a quarterly macroeconometric model for Serbia. Due to the economic restructuring and transformation in Serbia which followed the major geographical, economic, and institutional disruptions in the former Yugoslavia in the first half of the 1990s, reliable macroeconomic time series for Serbia are available only from about 1997 onwards. Hence, quarterly data have been used to estimate the behavioural equations of the model. However, for some aggregates, only annual data are available. In these cases, quarterly data have been derived by recurring to related series. Notwithstanding these data limitations, the macroeconometric model is able to replicate the endogenous variables reasonably well in an ex post simulation

Biomineralisation in the Palaeozoic oceans: evidence for simultaneous crystallisation of high and low magnesium calcite by phacopine trilobites

The chemical composition and microstructure of the calcite cuticles of eleven species of phacopine trilobites have been investigated by electron beam imaging, diffraction, and microanalysis, and results reveal that the lenses of their schizochroal eyes differed significantly in chemical composition from the rest of the cuticle in vivo. Apart from the eye lenses, most cuticles are inferred to have escaped extensive recrystallisation because their constituent crystals are sub-micrometre in size and have a preferred orientation that is consistent between species. Their current compositions of ~1.4 to 2.4 mol% MgCO3 are likely to be close to original values, although as they commonly luminesce and contain detectable manganese and iron, some diagenetic alteration has taken place. The associated lenses have a microstructure that is suitable for focusing light, yet are optically turbid owing to the presence within calcite of micropores and crystals of microdolomite, apatite, celestite and pyrite. The microdolomite indicates that lenses recrystallised from an original high-Mg calcite composition and this is supported by the presence of nanometre-scale modulated microstructures in both the calcite and dolomite. These lenses currently contain ~1 to 6 mol% MgCO3, and by comparison with the proportion of magnesium lost from echinoderm stereom in the same thin sections, may have contained ~7.5 mol% MgCO3 in vivo. In some samples, more extensive diagenetic alteration is evidenced by recrystallisation of the cuticle including lenses to coarse equant calcite or enrichment of the cuticle, but not necessarily the lenses, in magnesium accompanying replacement by a Mg–Fe phyllosilicate. The phacopine trilobites had to modify partition coefficients for magnesium considerably in order to grow lenses with contrasting compositions to the rest of their cuticles, and such a strong vital effect on biomineralisation suggests that incorporation of magnesium was essential for functioning of their calcite optical s

The Farm-Community Nexus: Metrics for Social, Economic, and Environmental Sustainability of Agritourism and Direct Farm Sales in Vermont

Viable working landscapes, vibrant communities, and healthy ecosystems are the building blocks of sustainable food systems. Small and medium farms are connective tissue, creating a system that is greater than the sum of its parts by linking consumers to producers and promoting environmental stewardship. Our approach considers sustainability through connections between farms, their communities, and visitors within an agritourism framework, including on-farm experiences, direct sales of agricultural products, and farmer-consumer interactions at markets. The goal is to contribute to the understanding, operationalization, and integration of metrics built on the ideals that viable, sustainable, and resilient food systems must support social, economic and environmental goals. The approach presented in this white paper: 1. Applied a sustainability framework to identify metrics relevant for social, economic, and environmental dimensions across farm, household, community, and statewide scales. 2. Identified existing data sets and current data gaps. 3. Identified linkages and impacts between social, economic and environmental dimensions of sustainability across scales and different frameworks. 4. Considered sustainability applied to direct sales and agritourism, with particular emphasis on the social floor required to promote individual, farmer, and community well-being, while protecting the environment by respecting our planetary boundaries. We categorized priority metrics under primary sustainability dimensions: Environmental – Open Space, Farm Products, Stewardship, and the Vermont Brand Economic – Economic Impacts, Consumer Spending, Farm Profitability, Farm Labor, and Farmland Social – Cultural Ecosystem Services, Labor Opportunities and Conditions, Social and Informational Infrastructure, Sense of Community, Demographic and Cultural Diversity, Good Governance, and Health, Safety, and Wellbeing Based on our assessment of existing and needed metrics summarized in this white paper, key recommendations to the UVM-ARS Center include: 1. Catalyze and synergize efforts and resources in Vermont to holistically address sustainability. 2. Explore and identify ways the Vermont brand—an important component of the state’s social, ecological and economic identity and culture—supports sustainability. 3. Focus on informational and data needs that are central to understanding and ensuring sustainability in Vermont, including longitudinal producer and consumer surveys. 4. Support a deep convergence of social and natural sciences in addressing sustainability. The goal is to provide an essential foundation for future research that will place the UVM-ARS Center for Food Systems Research at the forefront of this critical transdisciplinary area