The rodent uterotrophic assay: Critical protocol features, studies with nonyl phenols, and comparison with a yeast estrogenicity assay

The major protocol features of the immature rat uterotrophic assay have been evaluated using a range of reference chemicals. The protocol variables considered include the selection of the test species and route of chemical administration, the age of the test animals, the maintenance diet used, and the specificity of the assay for estrogens. It is concluded that three daily oral administrations of test chemicals to 21- to 22-day-old rats, followed by determination of absolute uterus weights on the fourth day, provide a sensitive and toxicologically relevant in vivo estrogenicity assay. Rats are favored over mice for reasons of toxicological practice, but the choice of test species is probably not a critical protocol variable, as evidenced by the similar sensitivity of rats and mice to the uterotrophic activity of methoxychlor. Vaginal opening is shown to be a useful, but nondefinitive, adjunct to the uterotrophic assay. The ability of test chemicals to reduce or abolish the uterotrophic response of estradiol is suggested to provide a useful extension of the uterotrophic assay for the purpose of detecting antiestrogens. The results of a series of studies on the environmental estrogen nonyl phenol (NP), and its linear isomer n -nonyl phenol, confirm that branching of the aliphatic side chain is important for activity. 17beta-Desoxyestradiol is shown to be of similar activity to estradiol in the uterotrophic assay and is suggested to represent the "parent" estrogen of NP. Benzoylation of NP and 17-desoxyestradiol did not affect their uterotrophic activity, in contrast to the enhancing effect of benzoylation on estradiol. Selected chemicals shown to be active in the immature rat uterotrophic assay were also evaluated in an in vitro yeast human estrogen receptor transactivation assay. Most of the chemicals gave similar qualitative responses to those seen in the uterotrophic assay, and the detection of the estrogen methoxychlor by the yeast assay evidenced a degree of intrinsic metabolic competence. However, the assay had a reduced ability (compared to rodents) to hydrolyze the benzoate ester of estradiol, and the estrogenic benzoate derivative of NP was not active in the yeast assay. These last results indicate that current metabolic deficiencies of in vitro estrogenicity assays will limit the value of negative data for the immediate future. The results described illustrate the intrinsic complexity of evaluating chemicals for estrogenic activities and confirm the need for rigorous attention to experimental design and criteria for assessing estrogenic activity

UK framework for basic epilepsy training and oromucosal midazolam administration.

BACKGROUND: UK wide Oromucosal Midazolam is used as an emergency treatment in community for seizures administered by family/carers with the right training. The Joint Epilepsy Council (JEC) UK which produced the training guidelines disbanded in 2016. PURPOSE: Provide standards for basic epilepsy education and rescue medication (Midazolam) administration. METHODS: The Epilepsy Nurses Association (ESNA), The International League against Epilepsy, British Chapter (ILAE) and the Royal college of Psychiatrists (RCPsych), used the Delphi process to update guidelines for the administration of oromucosal midazolam including developing a voluntary on-line test for carers. During 2017-2019 a facilitator worked with two ESNA committees to update the existing guidance and another to develop a question-bank. Both committee outputs were circulated to the ESNA membership, then ILAE and RCPsych for review. Patient-facing organizations and charities' opinions were solicited. All feedback was assimilated. A private provider was contracted to deliver the test. RESULTS: A consensus process involving two task and finish groups of 19 people each compared, reflected, debated, and engaged with stakeholders across three stages. The updated ratified guidelines were circulated nationally. The Delphi process highlighted many regions and individuals had local assessment tools and procedures in place, while others (around 50%) had no assessment provision. 278 carers with a 95% pass-rate and 100% positive feedback have undertaken the online test (10/2020). CONCLUSION: The UK-wide care provision gap in basic epilepsy-training and safe rescue medication administration is now addressed. A two-yearly update to the guidelines and test is planned

Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning

Three Key considerations for biodiversity conservation in multilateral agreements

It is nearly three decades since the world recognized the need for a global multilateral treaty aiming to address accelerating biodiversity loss. However, biodiversity continues to decline at a concerning rate. Drawing on lessons from the implementation of the current strategic plan of the Convention on Biological Diversity and the 2010 Aichi Targets, we highlight three interlinked core areas, which require attention and improvement in the development of the post‐2020 Biodiversity Framework under the Convention on Biological Diversity. They are: (1) developing robust theories of change which define agreed, adaptive plans for achieving targets; (2) using models to evaluate assumptions and effectiveness of different plans and targets; and (3) identifying the common but differentiated responsibilities of different actors/states/countries within these plans. We demonstrate how future multilateral agreements must not focus only on what needs to be done but also on how it should be done, using measurable steps, which make sense at the scales at which biodiversity change happens

Awareness of social care needs in people with epilepsy and intellectual disability

Background: Nearly a quarter of people with intellectual disability (ID) have epilepsy with large numbers experiencing drug-resistant epilepsy, and premature mortality. To mitigate epilepsy risks the environment and social care needs, particularly in professional care settings, need to be met. Purpose: To compare professional care groups as regards their subjective confidence and perceived responsibility when managing the need of people with ID and epilepsy. Method: A multi-agency expert panel developed a questionnaire with embedded case vignettes with quantitative and qualitative elements to understand training and confidence in the health and social determinants of people with ID and epilepsy. The cross-sectional survey was disseminated amongst health and social care professionals working with people with ID in the UK using an exponential non-discriminative snow-balling methodology. Group comparisons were undertaken using suitable statistical tests including Fisher's exact, Kruskal-Wallis, and Mann-Whitney. Bonferroni correction was applied to significant (p < 0.05) results. Content analysis was conducted and relevant categories and themes were identified. Results: Social and health professionals (n = 54) rated their confidence to manage the needs of people with ID and epilepsy equally. Health professionals showed better awareness (p < 0.001) of the findings/recommendations of the latest evidence on premature deaths and identifying and managing epilepsy-related risks, including the relevance of nocturnal monitoring. The content analysis highlighted the need for clearer roles, improved care pathways, better epilepsy-specific knowledge, increased resources, and better multi-disciplinary work. Conclusions: A gap exists between health and social care professionals in awareness of epilepsy needs for people with ID, requiring essential training and national pathways

A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation

Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this article, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities

Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures

Lacosamide in the general population and in people with intellectual disability: Similar responses?

This is the final version. Available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record. Purpose: Epilepsy prevalence is significantly higher in people with Intellectual Disability (ID) compared to people with epilepsy (PWE) from the general population. Increased psychological and behavioural problems, healthcare costs, morbidity, mortality and treatment resistance to antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) is associated with epilepsy in ID populations. Prescribing AEDs for PWE and ID is challenging and influenced heavily by studies conducted with the general population. Our study compares Lacosamide (LCM) response for the ID population to those from the general population; using data from an UK based epilepsy database register (EP ID/PDD AED Register). Methods: Pooled retrospective case notes data for PWE prescribed LCM at 11 UK NHS Trusts were analysed. Participants were classified as per WHO guidance into groups of moderate-profound ID, mild ID and General population. Demographics, concomitant AEDs, starting and maximum dosage, exposure length, adverse effects, dropout rates, seizure frequency were collected. Group differences were reported as odds ratios estimated from univariable logistic regression models. Results: Of 232 consented participants, 156 were from the general population and 76 had ID (24 mild, 52 moderate-profound). Twelve month withdrawal rates and reasons, efficacy, side-effects, start and maximum doses were similar between the groups. Dose titration between baseline and three months was significantly slower in the ID group (p = 0.02). Conclusion: There were no differences for LCM outcomes between general and ID groups. Slower LCM titration in ID populations in the first 3 months was associated with higher retention and lower behavioural side effects as compared to similar European studies.UC

Achieving global biodiversity goals by 2050 requires urgent and integrated actions

Governments are negotiating actions intended to halt biodiversity loss and put it on a path to recovery by 2050. Here, we show that bending the curve for biodiversity is possible, but only if actions are implemented urgently and in an integrated manner. Connecting these actions to biodiversity outcomes and tracking progress remain a challenge

Current and Future Patterns of Global Marine Mammal Biodiversity

Quantifying the spatial distribution of taxa is an important prerequisite for the preservation of biodiversity, and can provide a baseline against which to measure the impacts of climate change. Here we analyse patterns of marine mammal species richness based on predictions of global distributional ranges for 115 species, including all extant pinnipeds and cetaceans. We used an environmental suitability model specifically designed to address the paucity of distributional data for many marine mammal species. We generated richness patterns by overlaying predicted distributions for all species; these were then validated against sightings data from dedicated long-term surveys in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, the Northeast Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. Model outputs correlated well with empirically observed patterns of biodiversity in all three survey regions. Marine mammal richness was predicted to be highest in temperate waters of both hemispheres with distinct hotspots around New Zealand, Japan, Baja California, the Galapagos Islands, the Southeast Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. We then applied our model to explore potential changes in biodiversity under future perturbations of environmental conditions. Forward projections of biodiversity using an intermediate Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) temperature scenario predicted that projected ocean warming and changes in sea ice cover until 2050 may have moderate effects on the spatial patterns of marine mammal richness. Increases in cetacean richness were predicted above 40° latitude in both hemispheres, while decreases in both pinniped and cetacean richness were expected at lower latitudes. Our results show how species distribution models can be applied to explore broad patterns of marine biodiversity worldwide for taxa for which limited distributional data are available