Shakedown and creep rupture assessment of a header branch pipe using the Linear Matching Method

Many power plant components are subject to combined mechanical and thermal loading conditions during their operating lifetime. It is important that potential failure mechanisms of such components are extensively investigated in order to ensure sufficient confidence in their reliability. This paper presents shakedown and creep rupture analyses of a header branch pipe subjected to cyclic thermo-mechanical loading performed using the Linear Matching Method (LMM). The detailed investigation of failure mechanisms under the combined action of the internal pressure and the cyclic thermal load due to the temperature difference between the inner and outer pipe surfaces will be the primary focus of this paper. The header branch pipe considered here is composed of a single material with properties that are dependent upon both temperature and rupture life. A novel study investigating the effect that two geometric parameters – branch diameter and separation – have upon the failure mechanisms of the header branch pipe has also been carried out. The impact that these geometric parameters have upon the limit load, shakedown and creep rupture limits is one of the principal areas that is investigated in this work. In addition to this, an understanding of the dependency of the creep rupture limit upon the defined time to creep rupture is also studied. Verification of these results is then given by full elastic-plastic analyses performed within ABAQUS

Active Sampling-based Binary Verification of Dynamical Systems

Nonlinear, adaptive, or otherwise complex control techniques are increasingly relied upon to ensure the safety of systems operating in uncertain environments. However, the nonlinearity of the resulting closed-loop system complicates verification that the system does in fact satisfy those requirements at all possible operating conditions. While analytical proof-based techniques and finite abstractions can be used to provably verify the closed-loop system's response at different operating conditions, they often produce conservative approximations due to restrictive assumptions and are difficult to construct in many applications. In contrast, popular statistical verification techniques relax the restrictions and instead rely upon simulations to construct statistical or probabilistic guarantees. This work presents a data-driven statistical verification procedure that instead constructs statistical learning models from simulated training data to separate the set of possible perturbations into "safe" and "unsafe" subsets. Binary evaluations of closed-loop system requirement satisfaction at various realizations of the uncertainties are obtained through temporal logic robustness metrics, which are then used to construct predictive models of requirement satisfaction over the full set of possible uncertainties. As the accuracy of these predictive statistical models is inherently coupled to the quality of the training data, an active learning algorithm selects additional sample points in order to maximize the expected change in the data-driven model and thus, indirectly, minimize the prediction error. Various case studies demonstrate the closed-loop verification procedure and highlight improvements in prediction error over both existing analytical and statistical verification techniques.Comment: 23 page

Loneliness, social relations and health and wellbeing in deprived communities

There is growing policy concern about the extent of loneliness in advanced societies, and its prevalence among various social groups. This study looks at loneliness among people living in deprived communities, where there may be additional barriers to social engagement including low incomes, fear of crime, poor services and transient populations. The aim was to examine the prevalence of loneliness, and also its associations with different types of social contacts and forms of social support, and its links to self-reported health and wellbeing in the population group. The method involved a cross-sectional survey of 4,302 adults across 15 communities, with the data analysed using multinomial logistic regression controlling for sociodemographics, then for all other predictors within each domain of interest. Frequent feelings of loneliness were more common among those who: had contact with family monthly or less; had contact with neighbours weekly or less; rarely talked to people in the neighbourhood; and who had no available sources of practical or emotional support. Feelings of loneliness were most strongly associated with poor mental health, but were also associated with long-term problems of stress, anxiety and depression, and with low mental wellbeing, though to a lesser degree. The findings are consistent with a view that situational loneliness may be the product of residential structures and resources in deprived areas. The findings also show that neighbourly behaviours of different kinds are important for protecting against loneliness in deprived communities. Familiarity within the neighbourhood, as active acquaintance rather than merely recognition, is also important. The findings are indicative of several mechanisms that may link loneliness to health and wellbeing in our study group: loneliness itself as a stressor; lonely people not responding well to the many other stressors in deprived areas; and loneliness as the product of weak social buffering to protect against stressors

Statistical Mechanical Development of a Sparse Bayesian Classifier

The demand for extracting rules from high dimensional real world data is increasing in various fields. However, the possible redundancy of such data sometimes makes it difficult to obtain a good generalization ability for novel samples. To resolve this problem, we provide a scheme that reduces the effective dimensions of data by pruning redundant components for bicategorical classification based on the Bayesian framework. First, the potential of the proposed method is confirmed in ideal situations using the replica method. Unfortunately, performing the scheme exactly is computationally difficult. So, we next develop a tractable approximation algorithm, which turns out to offer nearly optimal performance in ideal cases when the system size is large. Finally, the efficacy of the developed classifier is experimentally examined for a real world problem of colon cancer classification, which shows that the developed method can be practically useful.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure

Lability of copper bound to humic acid

Geochemical speciation models generally include the assumption that all metal bound to humic acid and fulvic acid (HA, FA) is labile. However, in the current study, we determined the presence of a soluble ‘non-labile’ Cu fraction bound to HA extracted from grassland and peat soils. This was quantified by determining isotopically-exchangeable Cu (E-value) and EDTA-extraction of HA-bound Cu, separated by size-exclusion chromatography (SEC) and assayed by coupled ICP-MS. Evidence of time-dependent Cu fixation by HA was found during the course of an incubation study (160 days); up to 50% of dissolved HA-bound Cu was not isotopically exchangeable. This result was supported by extraction with EDTA where approximately 40% of Cu remained bound to HA despite dissolution in 0.05 M Na2-EDTA. The presence of a substantial non-labile metal fraction held by HA challenges the assumption of wholly reversible equilibrium which is central to current geochemical models of metal binding to humic substances

Current levels of suppression of waterhyacinth in Florida USA by classical biological control agents

Waterhyacinth, Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms (Pontederiaceae), has been a global target for classical biological control efforts for decades. In Florida, herbicidal application is the primary control method employed, usually without regard for the activities of the three biological control agents introduced intentionally during the 1970s, namely Neochetina eichhorniae Warner, Neochetina bruchi, Hustache (Coleoptera:Curculionidae), and Niphograpta albiguttalis Warren (Lepidoptera: Crambidae). A series of field experiments from 2008 to 2010 was conducted at four Florida sites using an insecticide-check approach to quantify the current levels of suppression provided by these agents. In the field N. albiguttalis was rarely found while more than 99% of all Neochetina sp. adults were N. eichhorniae. Although it was not possible to disentangle the relative impacts of Neochetina sp. adults from larvae on individual plant variables, the larvae played a major role in reducing plant biomass and the number of inflorescences. Plots exposed to unrestricted herbivory contained 58.2% less biomass and produced 97.3% fewer inflorescences at the end of the experiments. Despite these large reductions, herbivory decreased waterhyacinth coverage by only 16.8% and most of this was attributed to a low-nutrient site where coverage was reduced disproportionately. Overall, coverage trended upwards during the course of the experiments and was always close to 100% when the plots were harvested. Although coverage is a somewhat arbitrary metric, especially for floating plants subject to compression and dispersion, it influences the perception of biological control efficacy which, in turn, directly influences herbicide management decisions in Florida. Despite waterhyacinth populations that now produce less than half as much biomass and up to 98% fewer seeds than before the deployment of biological control agents, the overall approach used to achieve maintenance control of the plant in Florida will probably not change unless new biological control agents, such as Megamelus scutellaris Berg (Hemiptera: Delphacidae), can reduce coverage significantly

Lordship and Environmental Change in Central Highland Scotland c.1300–c.1400

Whilst there has been an increasing recognition of the infl uence of natural agency on human society in Scotland in the medieval period, conventional historiography has generally presented the wholesale reconfi guration of structures of secular lordship in the Scottish central Highlands in the 14th century as an essentially political consequence of the sociopolitical dislocation associated with the Anglo-Scottish wars that occurred after 1296. The establishment within the region of militarised Gaelic kindreds from the West Highlands and Hebrides of Scotland has come to be regarded as either a symptom of efforts by externally based regional lords to bolster their authority, or an opportunistic territorial aggrandisement by newly dominant neighbouring lords. Feuding and predatory raiding associated with these kindreds is recognised as competition for resources but generally in a context of projection of superior lordship over weaker neighbours. Evidence for long-term changes in climate extrapolated from North Atlantic proxy data, however, suggests that the cattle-based economy of Atlantic Scotland was experiencing protracted environmentally induced stress in the period c.1300–c.1350. Using this evidence, we discuss whether exchange systems operating within traditional lordship structures could offset localised and short-term pressures on the livestock-based regime, but could not be sustained long-term on the reduced fodder and contracting herd sizes caused by climatic deterioration. Territorial expansion and development of a predatory culture, it is argued, were responses to an environment-triggered economic crisis