Written evidence from the NCECJS to the HoC Justice Committee: implications of Brexit for justice

Forensic biometric sharing within the EU (Prüm) is a specialist form of cooperation. Nevertheless research into this activity and the context in which it occurs places some of the implications of Brexit into sharp relief: a) Brexit (in any form) will not result in a major reduction in the need for effective criminal justice and security cooperation. The UK will still receive millions of foreign citizens a year and a very small proportion of them will be serious criminals who present major threats. The challenge is to identify this small group within the generally law-abiding and tax-paying crowd. b) The effectiveness, continued extension and form of such cooperation will also have a major impact on the safety and rights of UK citizens abroad, whether they are in the diaspora or simply travelling for work or holidays. c) The value of individual criminal justice and security cooperation agreements (however good) will only be realised fully within a comprehensive framework (e.g. with access to the European Arrest Warrant (EAW)) that is underpinned institutionally (e.g. by Europol and Eurojust) and subject to parliamentary and legal scrutiny. d) UK global economic and political status was significantly reduced on 23rd June and a badly handled Brexit will further diminish this country’s influence. There will be little or no scope for UK bespoke arrangements for police and judicial cooperation or scientific standardisation. e) The resilience of both UK science and technology, and our criminal justice system – including responses to transnational cybercrime - are likely to be weakened significantly if British forensic scientists are no longer influential within EU collaborative scientific research, professional working groups and standardisation decisions. Opting-out of the EU arrangements, such as Prüm, the European Criminal Records Information System (ECRIS) and EAW, to which the UK belongs only after recent Protocol 36 reviews by criminal justice professionals, government and Parliament would be inexplicable and may prove to be reckless

The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: providing open access to seasonal forecast ensembles from centers around the globe

Fil: Tompkins, Adrian M.. The Abdus Salam; ItaliaFil: Ortiz de Zarate, Maria Ines. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Vera, Carolina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Saulo, Andrea Celeste. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Merryfield, William J.. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; CanadáFil: Sigmond, Michael. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; CanadáFil: Lee, Woo Sung. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; CanadáFil: Baehr, Johanna. Universitat Hamburg; AlemaniaFil: Braun, Alain. Météo-France; FranciaFil: Amy Butler. National Ocean And Atmospheric Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Déqué, Michel. Météo-France; FranciaFil: Doblas Reyes, Francisco J.. Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats; España. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; EspañaFil: Gordon, Margaret. Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Scaife, Adam A.. University of Exeter; Reino UnidoFil: Yukiko Imada. Japan Meteorological Agency. Meteorological Research Institute. Climate Research Department; JapónFil: Masayoshi Ishii. Japan Meteorological Agency. Meteorological Research Institute. Climate Research Department; JapónFil: Tomoaki Ose. Japan Meteorological Agency. Meteorological Research Institute. Climate Research Department; JapónFil: Kirtman, Ben. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Kumar, Arun. National Ocean And Atmospheric Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Müller, Wolfgang A.. Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie; AlemaniaFil: Pirani, Anna. Université Paris-Saclay; FranciaFil: Stockdale, Tim. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather; Reino UnidoFil: Rixen, Michel. World Meteorological Organization. World Climate Research Programme; SuizaFil: Yasuda, Tamaki. Japan Meteorological Agency. Climate Prediction Division; Japó

Metagenomics reveals impact of geography and acute diarrheal disease on the Central Indian human gut microbiome

© 2020, © 2020 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. Background: The Central Indian gut microbiome remains grossly understudied. Herein, we sought to investigate the burden of antimicrobial resistance and diarrheal diseases, particularly Clostridioides difficile, in rural-agricultural and urban populations in Central India, where there is widespread unregulated antibiotic use. We utilized shotgun metagenomics to comprehensively characterize the bacterial and viral fractions of the gut microbiome and their encoded functions in 105 participants. Results: We observed distinct rural-urban differences in bacterial and viral populations, with geography exhibiting a greater influence than diarrheal status. Clostridioides difficile disease was more commonly observed in urban subjects, and their microbiomes were enriched in metabolic pathways relating to the metabolism of industrial compounds and genes encoding resistance to 3rd generation cephalosporins and carbapenems. By linking phages present in the microbiome to their bacterial hosts through CRISPR spacers, phage variation could be directly related to shifts in bacterial populations, with the auxiliary metabolic potential of rural-associated phages enriched for carbon and amino acid energy metabolism. Conclusions: We report distinct differences in antimicrobial resistance gene profiles, enrichment of metabolic pathways and phage composition between rural and urban populations, as well as a higher burden of Clostridioides difficile disease in the urban population. Our results reveal that geography is the key driver of variation in urban and rural Indian microbiomes, with acute diarrheal disease, including C. difficile disease exerting a lesser impact. Future studies will be required to understand the potential role of dietary, cultural, and genetic factors in contributing to microbiome differences between rural and urban populations

Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems

The first multi-model study to estimate the predictability of a boreal Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is performed using five NWP systems. During the 2012-2013 boreal winter, anomalous upward propagating planetary wave activity was observed towards the end of December, which followed by a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation around 2 January 2013, and on 7 January 2013 the zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly. This stratospheric dynamical activity was followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet stream and by a high pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic, which resulted in severe cold conditions in the UK and Northern Europe. In most of the five models, the SSW event was predicted 10 days in advance. However, only some ensemble members in most of the models predicted weakening of westerly wind when the models were initialized 15 days in advance of the SSW. Further dynamical analysis of the SSW shows that this event was characterized by the anomalous planetary wave-1 amplification followed by the anomalous wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere, which resulted in a split vortex occurring between 6 January 2013 and 8 January 2013. The models have some success in reproducing wave-1 activity when initialized 15 days in advance, they but generally failed to produce the wave-2 activity during the final days of the event. Detailed analysis shows that models have reasonably good skill in forecasting tropospheric blocking features that stimulate wave-2 amplification in the troposphere, but they have limited skill in reproducing wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere

Soil respiratory quotient determined via barometric process separation combined with nitrogen-15 labeling

The barometric process separation (BaPS) and ¹⁵N dilution techniques were used to determine gross nitrification rates on the same soil cores from an old grassland soil. The BaPS-technique separates the O₂ consumption into that from nitrification and that from soil organic matter (SOM) respiration. The most sensitive parameter for the calculations via the BaPS technique is the respiratory quotient (RQ = ∆CO₂/∆O₂) for SOM turnover (RQSOM). Combining both methods (BaPS–¹⁵N ) allowed the determination of the RQSOM. The RQ value determined in such a way is adjusted for the influence of nitrification and denitrification, which are both characterized by totally different RQ values. The results for the grassland soil showed that 6 to 10% of O₂ was consumed by nitrification when incubated at 20°C and 0.49 g H₂O g⁻¹ soil. A set of BaPS measurements with the same soil at various temperature and moisture contents showed that up to 49% of the total O₂ consumption was due to nitrification. The calculated RQSOM values via the BaPS–¹⁵N technique presented here are more closely associated with the overall SOM turnover than the usual net RQ reported in the literature. Furthermore, the RQSOM value provides an overall indication of the decomposability and chemical characteristics of the respired organic material. Hence, it has the potential to serve as a single state index for SOM quality and therefore be a useful index for SOM turnover models based on substrate quality

Survey of Period Variations of Superhumps in SU UMa-Type Dwarf Novae. II: The Second Year (2009-2010)

As an extension of the project in Kato et al. (2009, arXiv:0905.1757), we collected times of superhump maxima for 61 SU UMa-type dwarf novae mainly observed during the 2009-2010 season. The newly obtained data confirmed the basic findings reported in Kato et al. (2009): the presence of stages A-C, as well as the predominance of positive period derivatives during stage B in systems with superhump periods shorter than 0.07 d. There was a systematic difference in period derivatives for systems with superhump periods longer than 0.075 d between this study and Kato et al. (2009). We suggest that this difference is possibly caused by the relative lack of frequently outbursting SU UMa-type dwarf novae in this period regime in the present study. We recorded a strong beat phenomenon during the 2009 superoutburst of IY UMa. The close correlation between the beat period and superhump period suggests that the changing angular velocity of the apsidal motion of the elliptical disk is responsible for the variation of superhump periods. We also described three new WZ Sge-type objects with established early superhumps and one with likely early superhumps. We also suggest that two systems, VX For and EL UMa, are WZ Sge-type dwarf novae with multiple rebrightenings. The O-C variation in OT J213806.6+261957 suggests that the frequent absence of rebrightenings in very short-Porb objects can be a result of sustained superoutburst plateau at the epoch when usual SU UMa-type dwarf novae return to quiescence preceding a rebrightening. We also present a formulation for a variety of Bayesian extension to traditional period analyses.Comment: 63 pages, 77 figures, 1 appendix, Accepted for publication in PASJ, data correctio

Identifying causes of Western Pacific ITCZ drift in ECMWF System 4 hindcasts

The development of systematic biases in climate models used in operational seasonal forecasting adversely affects the quality of forecasts they produce. In this study, we examine the initial evolution of systematic biases in the ECMWF System 4 forecast model, and isolate aspects of the model simulations that lead to the development of these biases. We focus on the tendency of the simulated intertropical convergence zone in the western equatorial Pacific to drift northwards by between 0.5° and 3° of latitude depending on season. Comparing observations with both fully coupled atmosphere–ocean hindcasts and atmosphere-only hindcasts (driven by observed sea-surface temperatures), we show that the northward drift is caused by a cooling of the sea-surface temperature on the Equator. The cooling is associated with anomalous easterly wind stress and excessive evaporation during the first twenty days of hindcast, both of which occur whether air-sea interactions are permitted or not. The easterly wind bias develops immediately after initialisation throughout the lower troposphere; a westerly bias develops in the upper troposphere after about ten days of hindcast. At this point, the baroclinic structure of the wind bias suggests coupling with errors in convective heating, although the initial wind bias is barotropic in structure and appears to have an alternative origin

Survey of Period Variations of Superhumps in SU UMa-Type Dwarf Novae

We systematically surveyed period variations of superhumps in SU UMa-type dwarf novae based on newly obtained data and past publications. In many systems, the evolution of superhump period are found to be composed of three distinct stages: early evolutionary stage with a longer superhump period, middle stage with systematically varying periods, final stage with a shorter, stable superhump period. During the middle stage, many systems with superhump periods less than 0.08 d show positive period derivatives. Contrary to the earlier claim, we found no clear evidence for variation of period derivatives between superoutburst of the same object. We present an interpretation that the lengthening of the superhump period is a result of outward propagation of the eccentricity wave and is limited by the radius near the tidal truncation. We interpret that late stage superhumps are rejuvenized excitation of 3:1 resonance when the superhumps in the outer disk is effectively quenched. Many of WZ Sge-type dwarf novae showed long-enduring superhumps during the post-superoutburst stage having periods longer than those during the main superoutburst. The period derivatives in WZ Sge-type dwarf novae are found to be strongly correlated with the fractional superhump excess, or consequently, mass ratio. WZ Sge-type dwarf novae with a long-lasting rebrightening or with multiple rebrightenings tend to have smaller period derivatives and are excellent candidate for the systems around or after the period minimum of evolution of cataclysmic variables (abridged).Comment: 239 pages, 225 figures, PASJ accepte