Bayesian estimation of the infrequency of purchase model with an application to food demand in the UK

A Bayesian method of estimating multivariate sample selection models is introduced and applied to the estimation of a demand system for food in the UK to account for censoring arising from infrequency of purchase. We show how it is possible to impose identifying restrictions on the sample selection equations and that, unlike a maximum likelihood framework, the imposition of adding up at both latent and observed levels is straightforward. We find that higher income households consume proportionately more meat and more fresh fruit and vegetables. Regional differences in fruit and vegetable consumption are marked with the highest levels of consumption in London and the South East. The presence of children in a household reduces levels of vegetable consumption. Households employed in the professional or managerial sectors have higher levels of fruit and vegetable consumption. Age has an influence on the consumption of fats and sugars, with consumption declining amongst older households and on the types of fruit and vegetables consumed with younger households preferring more ready meals and prepared fruit and vegetables.Bayesian estimation; Demand system; Infrequency of purchase;

Land, Law and Faith: Discourses of Liberty in James Fenimore Cooper\u27s The Pioneers, The Last of the Mohicans, and The Crater

This thesis deals with James Fenimore Cooper\u27s beliefs regarding the strengths and weaknesses of American democracy as expressed through his fiction. While many critics feel Cooper\u27s belief in the American system soured in his later years, this thesis seeks to prove he not only remained consistent in his views, but that those views, while at times critical of American politics, were largely optimistic. This thesis will focus on two early novels, The Pioneers (1823), and The Last of the Mohicans (1826), as well as one of Cooper’s last novels, The Crater (1847). In both the early novels as well as in The Crater, Cooper seeks to display the weaknesses in the American systems of democracy and capitalism through discussions centering on the land and the law. In both The Pioneers, and Mohicans, Cooper focuses on the ownership of the land and its resources as well as on the right to make laws and govern one\u27s own destiny. In The Crater, Cooper endorses his belief in America\u27s governmental and economic systems, as well as clarifies his fears if those systems go unchecked. As well, Cooper offers in The Crater a unique solution of faith as a way to check potential abuses while protecting the integrity of liberty. Cooper\u27s optimism is shown through his belief that his criticism of capitalism and demagoguery, while not always understood or well-received, were necessary in order to preserve a nation he felt had great strength and potential

The relationship between personality traits, self-report conscientiousness the Conscientiousness Index and academic performance in undergraduate medical students

Personality traits are now accepted as being important factors within the workplace and medical education. Both cognitive ability and conscientiousness have been shown as important predictors of work-related performance within organisational research1. Conscientiousness is in an important trait within any career, but in particular within medicine where a lack of diligence can be disastrous and potentially cost lives. Within undergraduate students, objective measurement of conscientiousness is important since conscientious students are more likely to set and achieve goals. Durham University utilises the Conscientiousness Index (CI) as an objective scalar measure of conscientiousness. The CI has previously been validated against staff and peer views of student professionalism4,5. This study aimed to investigate the relationships between the Big Five personality domains (including the 6 sub-facets of conscientiousness), Conscientiousness Index scores and academic performance in medical students in order to determine whether self-report conscientiousness correlates with the Conscientiousness Index and whether a relationship with academic performance exists

Autonomous Airliners Anytime Soon?

This research seeks to extend the body of knowledge on factors influential in the decision to fly on an autonomous airliner as a passenger. Only a handful of studies have probed this direct question in the last 16 years, but the data is showing a growing public acceptance of this type of travel. Pivotal in this consideration is the basic element of trust – trust in automated airliners and trust in the airline and Air Traffic Control systems which are responsible for autonomous airliners. Human trust has many forms and manifestations, but in the end, it is a dichotomous or binary choice; either a human does or does not trust. Longitudinally comparing the previous autonomous airliner research samples was technically impure because the respondent pools were dissimilar in age demographics, vocational backgrounds, and nationality. Nevertheless, a current, United States-focused sampling was taken to compare with the 16-year historical data available and explore trends in this emerging discussion

Тепломассоперенос при локальном нагреве и зажигании жидкого топлива сфокусированным потоком излучения

Выполнено численное моделирование комплекса взаимосвязанных процессов тепломассопереноса с фазовыми переходами и химическими реакциями при нагреве и последующем зажигании типичного жидкого топлива сфокусированным потоком излучения. Установлены масштабы влияния процесса поглощения энергии парогазовой смесью и жидкостью на характеристики зажигания

Bayesian estimation of the infrequency of purchase model with an application to food demand in the UK

A Bayesian method of estimating multivariate sample selection models is introduced and applied to the estimation of a demand system for food in the UK to account for censoring arising from infrequency of purchase. We show how it is possible to impose identifying restrictions on the sample selection equations and that, unlike a maximum likelihood framework, the imposition of adding up at both latent and observed levels is straightforward. We find that higher income households consume proportionately more meat and more fresh fruit and vegetables. Regional differences in fruit and vegetable consumption are marked with the highest levels of consumption in London and the South East. The presence of children in a household reduces levels of vegetable consumption. Households employed in the professional or managerial sectors have higher levels of fruit and vegetable consumption. Age has an influence on the consumption of fats and sugars, with consumption declining amongst older households and on the types of fruit and vegetables consumed with younger households preferring more ready meals and prepared fruit and vegetables

Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

Objectives To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. Design An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting The UK. Participants The UK adult population. Interventions Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Outcome measures Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Results Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Conclusions Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets

Defining Professionalism for Mental Health Services : A Rapid Systematic Review

Background: Efforts have been made to define professionalism across the professions, yet little attention has been paid to the concept in mental health services, where patients’ needs differ to that in other healthcare specialties. Aims: To derive a definition of professionalism for mental health services using the existing literature. Method: A rapid, systematic review was conducted to identify empirical and non-empirical records that described professionalism in a mental health service context from 2006 to 2017. Studies were synthesised narratively using thematic analysis. Results: Seventy records were included in the review. Professionalism was described on two levels; at a societal level, a dynamic social contract between professions and society, and; at an individual level, having intrapersonal, interpersonal, and working professionalism. Utilising emerging themes, an operationalised definition of professionalism, suitable for a mental health service context was derived. Conclusions: Within mental health services, emphasis is placed on the interpersonal aspects of practice such as communication skills, maintaining boundaries and humanity. Themes relating to the vulnerability of patients and the challenge of supporting autonomy and choice whilst maintaining safety and acting in a client’s best interest are also evident. ‘Practical wisdom’ and a flexible approach to working are needed to manage these challenging situations

Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

Objective To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK. Design Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting United Kingdom. Population Adults aged 16 and over. Intervention A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks. Main outcome measures The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥25) and obese (≥30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated. Results A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180 000 (110 000 to 247 000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285 000 (201 000 to 364 000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%). Conclusions A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180 000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults

Predicting fitness to practise events in international medical graduates who registered as UK doctors via the Professional and Linguistic Assessments Board (PLAB) system: a national cohort study

Background International medical graduates working in the UK are more likely to be censured in relation to fitness to practise compared to home graduates. Performance on the General Medical Council’s (GMC’s) Professional and Linguistic Assessments Board (PLAB) tests and English fluency have previously been shown to predict later educational performance in this group of doctors. It is unknown whether the PLAB system is also a valid predictor of unprofessional behaviour and malpractice. The findings would have implications for regulatory policy. Methods This was an observational study linking data relating to fitness to practise events (referral or censure), PLAB performance, demographic variables and English language competence, as evaluated via the International English Language Test System (IELTS). Data from 27,330 international medical graduates registered with the GMC were analysed, including 210 doctors who had been sanctioned in relation to at least one fitness to practise issue. The main outcome was risk of eventual censure (including a warning). Results The significant univariable educational predictors of eventual censure (versus no censures or referrals) were lower PLAB part 1 (hazard ratio [HR], 0.99; 95% confidence interval, 0.98 to 1.00) and part 2 scores (HR, 0.94; 0.91 to 0.97) at first sitting, multiple attempts at both parts of the PLAB, lower IELTS reading (HR, 0.79; 0.65 to 0.94) and listening scores (HR, 0.76; 0.62 to 0.93) and higher IELTS speaking scores (HR, 1.28; 1.04 to 1.57). Multiple resits at either part of the PLAB and higher IELTS speaking score (HR, 1.49; 1.20 to 1.84) were also independent predictors of censure. We estimated that the proposed limit of four attempts at both parts of the PLAB would reduce the risk in this entire group by only approximately two censures per 5 years in this group of doctors. Conclusions Making the PLAB, or any replacement assessment, more stringent and raising the required standards of English reading and listening may result in fewer fitness to practice events in international medical graduates. However, the number of PLAB resits permitted would have to be further capped to meaningfully impact the risk of sanctions in this group of doctor