Sources of Multidrug Resistance in Patients With Previous Isoniazid-Resistant Tuberculosis Identified Using Whole Genome Sequencing: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

Background Meta-analysis of patients with isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis given standard first-line anti-tuberculosis treatment indicated an increased risk of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) emerging (8%), compared to drug-sensitive tuberculosis (0.3%). Here we use whole genome sequencing (WGS) to investigate whether treatment of patients with pre-existing isoniazid resistant disease with first-line anti-tuberculosis therapy risks selecting for rifampicin resistance, and hence MDR-TB. Methods Patients with isoniazid-resistant pulmonary TB were recruited and followed up for 24 months. Drug-susceptibility testing was performed by Microscopic observation drug-susceptibility assay (MODS), Mycobacterial Growth Indicator Tube (MGIT) and by WGS on isolates at first presentation and in the case of re-presentation. Where MDR-TB was diagnosed, WGS was used to determine the genomic relatedness between initial and subsequent isolates. De novo emergence of MDR-TB was assumed where the genomic distance was five or fewer single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) whereas reinfection with a different MDR-TB strain was assumed where the distance was 10 or more SNPs. Results 239 patients with isoniazid-resistant pulmonary tuberculosis were recruited. Fourteen (14/239, 5.9%) patients were diagnosed with a second episode of tuberculosis that was multi-drug resistant. Six (6/239, 2.5%) were identified as having evolved MDR-TB de novo and six as having been re-infected with a different strain. In two cases the genomic distance was between 5-10 SNPs and therefore indeterminate. Conclusions In isoniazid-resistant TB, de novo emergence and reinfection of MDR-TB strains equally contributed to MDR development. Early diagnosis and optimal treatment of isoniazid resistant TB are urgently needed to avert the de novo emergence of MDR-TB during treatment

Quality assessment of an interferon-gamma release assay for tuberculosis infection in a resource-limited setting

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>When a test for diagnosis of infectious diseases is introduced in a resource-limited setting, monitoring quality is a major concern. An optimized design of experiment and statistical models are required for this assessment.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Interferon-gamma release assay to detect tuberculosis (TB) infection from whole blood was tested in Hanoi, Viet Nam. Balanced incomplete block design (BIBD) was planned and fixed-effect models with heterogeneous error variance were used for analysis. In the first trial, the whole blood from 12 donors was incubated with nil, TB-specific antigens or mitogen. In 72 measurements, two laboratory members exchanged their roles in harvesting plasma and testing for interferon-gamma release using enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique. After intervention including checkup of all steps and standard operation procedures, the second trial was implemented in a similar manner.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The lack of precision in the first trial was clearly demonstrated. Large within-individual error was significantly affected by both harvester and ELISA operator, indicating that both of the steps had problems. After the intervention, overall within-individual error was significantly reduced (<it>P </it>< 0.0001) and error variance was no longer affected by laboratory personnel in charge, indicating that a marked improvement could be objectively observed.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>BIBD and analysis of fixed-effect models with heterogeneous variance are suitable and useful for objective and individualized assessment of proficiency in a multistep diagnostic test for infectious diseases in a resource-constrained laboratory. The action plan based on our findings would be worth considering when monitoring for internal quality control is difficult on site.</p

Reproductive tract infections in women seeking abortion in Vietnam

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Women requesting abortion are at increased risk of developing RTI complications. However, RTI control in many resource-poor countries including Vietnam have been faced with logistical and methodological problems due to lack of standardized definitions of RTIs, lack of well-validated diagnostic criteria, lack of accurate laboratory tests, and lack of diagnostic equipment and skills. This article investigates the prevalence of RTIs among Vietnamese abortion-seeking women, to evaluate the available diagnostic techniques, and to assess antibiotic resistance among aetiological agents of RTI.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>The study was conducted in Phu-San hospital (PSH) from December 2003 through April 2004 among 748 abortion clients. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data on socio-economic and reproductive characteristics. Specimens were collected for laboratory analyses of chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis, vaginal candidiasis (VC), bacterial vaginosis (BV) and syphilis. To assess the validity of the obtained results, the study was repeated among 100 women and the duplicate samples were analysed at PSH and Copenhagen University Hospital (CUH).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In all 54% of the women were diagnosed as having an RTI, including 3.3% with sexually transmitted infections. Endogenous infections were most prevalent (VC 34% and BV 12%) followed by chlamydia (1.3%) and trichomoniasis (0.7%). The sensitivity of culture for VC and BV was 30% and 88%, respectively, when tests in PSH were measured against tests in CUH. Antibiotic resistance was common among bacterial isolates.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>RTIs are common among women seeking abortion. The presence of RTIs is associated with an increased risk of developing iatrogenic infections, routine administration of prophylactic antibiotic to all women undergoing abortion should be considered. However, the choice of routine prophylactic antibiotics should be based on relevant surveillance data of antibiotic resistance. Moreover, since the accuracy of diagnosis is doubtful and to address the problem of under-diagnosed and treated RTIs new investment in diagnostic facilities with simple performed microscopy or improved rapid tests should also be taken into consideration.</p

Virulence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Clinical Isolates Is Associated With Sputum Pre-treatment Bacterial Load, Lineage, Survival in Macrophages, and Cytokine Response

It is uncertain whether differences in Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) virulence defined in vitro influence clinical tuberculosis pathogenesis, transmission, and mortality. We primarily used a macrophage lysis model to characterize the virulence of Mtb isolates collected from 153 Vietnamese adults with pulmonary tuberculosis. The virulence phenotypes were then investigated for their relationship with sputum bacterial load, bacterial lineages, bacterial growth, and cytokine responses in macrophages. Over 6 days of infection, 34 isolates (22.2%) showed low virulence (&lt; 5% macrophages lysed), 46 isolates (30.1%) showed high virulence (≥90% lysis of macrophages), and 73 isolates (47.7%) were of intermediate virulence (5–90% macrophages lysed). Highly virulent isolates were associated with an increased bacterial load in patients' sputum before anti-tuberculosis therapy (P = 0.02). Isolate-dependent virulence phenotype was consistent in both THP-1 and human monocyte-derived macrophages. High virulence isolates survived better and replicated in macrophages one hundred fold faster than those with low virulence. Macrophages infected with high virulence isolates produced lower concentrations of TNF-α and IL-6 (P = 0.002 and 0.0005, respectively), but higher concentration of IL-1β (P = 5.1 × 10−5) compared to those infected with low virulence isolates. High virulence was strongly associated with East Asian/Beijing lineage [P = 0.002, Odd ratio (OR) = 4.32, 95% confident intervals (CI) 1.68–11.13]. The association between virulence phenotypes, bacterial growth, and proinflammatory cytokines in macrophages suggest the suppression of certain proinflammatory cytokines (TNF-α and IL-6) but not IL-1β allows better intracellular survival of highly virulent Mtb. This could result in rapid macrophage lysis and higher bacterial load in sputum of patients infected with high virulence isolates, which may contribute to the pathogenesis and success of the Beijing lineage

Cox process representation and inference for stochastic reaction-diffusion processes

Complex behaviour in many systems arises from the stochastic interactions of spatially distributed particles or agents. Stochastic reaction-diffusion processes are widely used to model such behaviour in disciplines ranging from biology to the social sciences, yet they are notoriously difficult to simulate and calibrate to observational data. Here we use ideas from statistical physics and machine learning to provide a solution to the inverse problem of learning a stochastic reaction-diffusion process from data. Our solution relies on a non-trivial connection between stochastic reaction-diffusion processes and spatio-temporal Cox processes, a well-studied class of models from computational statistics. This connection leads to an efficient and flexible algorithm for parameter inference and model selection. Our approach shows excellent accuracy on numeric and real data examples from systems biology and epidemiology. Our work provides both insights into spatio-temporal stochastic systems, and a practical solution to a long-standing problem in computational modelling

Pathways to a more peaceful and sustainable world:The transformative power of children in families

This article provides an overview of selected ongoing international efforts that have been inspired by Edward Zigler’s vision to improve programs and policies for young children and families in the United States. The efforts presented are in close alignment with three strategies articulated by Edward Zigler: (a) conduct research that will inform policy advocacy; (b) design, implement, and revise quality early child- hood development (ECD) programs; and (c) invest in building the next generation of scholars and advocates in child development. The intergenerational legacy left by Edward Zigler has had an impact on young children not only in the United States, but also across the globe. More needs to be done. We need to work together with a full commitment to ensure the optimal development of each child

The global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis by cause in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (collectively referred to as cirrhosis in this paper) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, although the burden and underlying causes differ across locations and demographic groups. We report on results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 on the burden of cirrhosis and its trends since 1990, by cause, sex, and age, for 195 countries and territories. Methods We used data from vital registrations, vital registration samples, and verbal autopsies to estimate mortality. We modelled prevalence of total, compensated, and decompensated cirrhosis on the basis of hospital and claims data. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. Estimates are presented as numbers and age-standardised or age-specific rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). All estimates are presented for five causes of cirrhosis: hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol-related liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and other causes. We compared mortality, prevalence, and DALY estimates with those expected according to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a proxy for the development status of regions and countries. Findings In 2017, cirrhosis caused more than 1.32 million (95% UI 1.27-1.45) deaths (440000 [416 000-518 000; 33.3%] in females and 883 000 [838 000-967 000; 66.7%] in males) globally, compared with less than 899 000 (829 000-948 000) deaths in 1990. Deaths due to cirrhosis constituted 2.4% (2.3-2.6) of total deaths globally in 2017 compared with 1.9% (1.8-2.0) in 1990. Despite an increase in the number of deaths, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 21.0 (19.2-22.3) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 16.5 (15.8-18-1) per 100 000 population in 2017. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate among GBD super-regions for all years of the study period (32.2 [25.8-38.6] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017), and the high-income super-region had the lowest (10.1 [9.8-10-5] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017). The age-standardised death rate decreased or remained constant from 1990 to 2017 in all GBD regions except eastern Europe and central Asia, where the age-standardised death rate increased, primarily due to increases in alcohol-related liver disease prevalence. At the national level, the age-standardised death rate of cirrhosis was lowest in Singapore in 2017 (3.7 [3.3-4.0] per 100 000 in 2017) and highest in Egypt in all years since 1990 (103.3 [64.4-133.4] per 100 000 in 2017). There were 10.6 million (10.3-10.9) prevalent cases of decompensated cirrhosis and 112 million (107-119) prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis globally in 2017. There was a significant increase in age-standardised prevalence rate of decompensated cirrhosis between 1990 and 2017. Cirrhosis caused by NASH had a steady age-standardised death rate throughout the study period, whereas the other four causes showed declines in age-standardised death rate. The age-standardised prevalence of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH increased more than for any other cause of cirrhosis (by 33.2% for compensated cirrhosis and 54.8% for decompensated cirrhosis) over the study period. From 1990 to 2017, the number of prevalent cases snore than doubled for compensated cirrhosis due to NASH and more than tripled for decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH. In 2017, age-standardised death and DALY rates were lower among countries and territories with higher SDI. Interpretation Cirrhosis imposes a substantial health burden on many countries and this burden has increased at the global level since 1990, partly due to population growth and ageing. Although the age-standardised death and DALY rates of cirrhosis decreased from 1990 to 2017, numbers of deaths and DALYs and the proportion of all global deaths due to cirrhosis increased. Despite the availability of effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis B and C, they were still the main causes of cirrhosis burden worldwide, particularly in low-income countries. The impact of hepatitis B and C is expected to be attenuated and overtaken by that of NASH in the near future. Cost-effective interventions are required to continue the prevention and treatment of viral hepatitis, and to achieve early diagnosis and prevention of cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease and NASH. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning