Inventory Management and Demand Forecasting Improvement of a Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Networks

Forecasting is predicting or estimating a future event or trend. Supply chains have been constantly growing in most countries ever since the industrial revolution of the 18th century. As the competitiveness between supply chains intensifies day by day, companies are shifting their focus to predictive analytics techniques to minimize costs and boost productivity and profits. Excessive inventory (overstock) and stock outs are very significant issues for suppliers. Excessive inventory levels can lead to loss of revenue because the company's capital is tied up in excess inventory. Excess inventory can also lead to increased storage, insurance costs and labor as well as lower and degraded quality based on the nature of the product. Shortages or out of stock can lead to lost sales and a decline in customer contentment and loyalty to the store. If clients are unable to find the right products on the shelves, they may switch to another vendor or purchase alternative items. Demand forecasting is valuable for planning, scheduling and improving the coordination of all supply chain activities. This paper discusses the use of neural networks for seasonal time series forecasting. Our objective is to evaluate the contribution of the correct choice of the transfer function by proposing a new form of the transfer function to improve the quality of the forecast

A Study on an Extensive Hierarchical Model for Demand Forecasting of Automobile Components

Demand forecasting and big data analytics in supply chain management are gaining interest. This is attributed to the wide range of big data analytics in supply chain management, in addition to demand forecasting, and behavioral analysis. In this article, we studied the application of big data analytics forecasting in supply chain demand forecasting in the automotive parts industry to propose classifications of these applications, identify gaps, and provide ideas for future research. Algorithms will then be classified and then applied in supply chain management such as neural networks, k-nearest neighbors, time series forecasting, clustering, regression analysis, support vector regression and support vector machines. An extensive hierarchical model for short-term auto parts demand assessment was employed to avoid the shortcomings of the earlier models and to close the gap that regarded mainly a single time series. The concept of extensive relevance assessment was proposed, and subsequently methods to reflect the relevance of automotive demand factors were discussed. Using a wide range of skills, the factors and cofactors are expressed in the form of a correlation characteristic matrix to ensure the degree of influence of each factor on the demand for automotive components. Then, it is compared with the existing data and predicted the short-term historical data. The result proved the predictive error is less than 6%, which supports the validity of the prediction method. This research offers the basis for the macroeconomic regulation of the government and the production of auto parts manufacturers

Devenir des pathologies du canal péritonéo-vaginal et de la migration testiculaire chez l’enfant : prise en charge au centre hospitalier de Louga, Sénégal: Outcome of processus vaginalis and testicular migration related pathologies in children treated at Louga Hospital, Senegal

Contexte et objectifs. Le devenir des pathologies du canal péritonéo-vaginal (CPV) et de la migration testiculaire chez l’enfant est peu connu. L’objectif de ce travail était de décrire les aspects cliniques et le devenir de ces pathologies. Méthodes. Etude documentaire descriptive portant sur les hernies, hydrocèles, cryptorchidies et torsions du cordon spermatique opérées chez le garçon âgé de 0 à 16 ans, au Centre hospitalier de Louga, Sénégal, de janvier 2018 à décembre 2019. Résultats. 184 dossiers des patients ont été colligés, soit 32,5 % de patients opérés au cours de la période. Leur âge moyen était de 5,4 ± 4,3 ans. Ces pathologies englobaient : hernies inguinales (n=37 dont 3 étranglements), hydrocèles (n=113), cryptorchidies (n=27), testicules oscillants (n=2) et torsions du cordon spermatique (n=5). L’abord a été inguinal dans 96,1 %. Le traitement a consisté en : ligature du CPV, abaissement testiculaire, orchidopexie, orchidectomie. Aucune récidive, atrophie ou fonte testiculaire n’a été observée en trois mois de suivi. Conclusion. La prise en charge en urgence ou non des pathologies du CPV et de la migration testiculaire chez l’enfant est fréquente dans notre pratique, sans complication à courte terme. Le défi réside dans le suivi à long terme en raison des complications tardives. Context and objectives. Little is known about the outcome of patent processus vaginalis and testicular migration pathologies in children. The objectives of this study were to analyze clinical and therapeutic features of these pathologies. Methods. This was a descriptive retrospective study involving boys aged 0 to 16 years, operated for inguinal hernias, hydroceles, cryptorchidisms and testicular torsions, at the Louga Regional Hospital Center, Senegal, from January 2018 to December 2019. Results. 184 patients were recorded, which represented 32.5 % of all patients operated in the same period. Their average age was 5.4 ± 4.3 years. The managed pathologies were: inguinal hernias (n= 37 including 3 incarcerated hernias), hydroceles (n= 113), cryptorchidisms (n= 27), retractile testicles (n=2) and testicular torsions (n= 5). Inguinal approach was performed in 96,1 % of cases. Surgical managements were: ligature of the patent processus vaginalis, relocating the testicle within the scrotum, orchidopexy and orchidectomy. No recurrence, no purulent testicular discharge or testicular atrophy was encountered. Conclusion. Processus vaginalis and testicular migration pathologies are common in our practice. At 3 months of surgical operation, no complication was observed. However, the challenge is long-term follow-up due to late complications

Obstetric emergencies in the maternity ward of the Ignace Deen national hospital CHU of Conakry: sociodemographic, therapeutic and maternal fetal prognosis aspects

Background: Despite government efforts to reduce maternal mortality, the risk of a woman dying from obstetric complications is about one in six in the poorest regions of the world compared to one in thirty thousand in North Europe. The objective was therefore to describe the clinical socio-demographic aspects and to establish the maternal and fetal prognosis of obstetric emergencies.Methods: This was a descriptive cross-sectional prospective study over a 6-month period from January 1 to June 30, 2020 carried out at the maternity ward of the Ignace Deen national hospital (Conakry university hospital) in Guinea. The study looked at a continuous series of 662 obstetric emergency cases.Results: The frequency of admission of obstetric emergencies was 22.62%. They concerned young women (29.5 years old) on average, first-time mothers (53.32%), with low income professional activities, evacuated from a peripheral maternity unit (63.14%), no schooling (44.9%), married (92.3%), using the more often a means of public transport (66.5%) and whose pregnancies were poorly monitored (63.9%). Fetal emergencies were dominated by acute fetal distress (91.3%) and maternal emergencies were dominated by hypertensive emergencies (pre-eclampsia and eclampsia 37.44%) followed by hemorrhagic emergencies (last trimester hemorrhage and postpartum hemorrhage 34.34%). Pregnant and parturient women were more frequently admitted to labor (62.7%) and gave birth more frequently by caesarean section (86.70%). the staff reacted promptly to make a treatment decision in 75.5% of cases within fifteen minutes. emergency procedures were performed in less than fifteen minutes in almost all cases (97.4%), specific treatment was carried out in less than an hour in the majority of cases (68.3%). The maternal case fatality rate was 4.1% with the main cause of death being hemorrhagic shock of 51.8%. The stillbirth rate was 17.4%.Conclusions: The anticipation of emergency obstetric care (SOU) and close collaboration between the obstetrician, the anesthesiologist-resuscitator are essential in the management of obstetric emergencies

Características de la superficie terrestre y clima en África occidental: sesgos e impactos de los modelos de la deforestación histórica inducida antropogénicamente

Land Use Land-Cover Change (LULCC), such as deforestation, affects the climate system and land-atmosphere interactions. Using simulations carried out within the LUCID (Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust Impacts) project framework, we first quantify the role of historical land-cover change induced by human activities on surface climate in West Africa. Focusing on two contrasted African regions, we find that climate responses of land-use changes are small but they are still statistically significant. In Western Sahel, a statistically significant near-surface atmospheric cooling and a decrease in water recycling are simulated in summer in response to LULCC. Over the Guinean zone, models simulate a significant decrease in precipitation and water recycling in autumn in response to LULCC. This signal is comparable in magnitude with the effect induced by the increase in greenhouse gases. Simulated climate changes due to historical LULCC could however be underestimated because: (i) the prescribed LULCC can be underestimated in those regions; (ii) the climate models underestimate the coupling strength between West African surface climate and leaf area index (LAI) and (iii) the lack of interactive LAI in some models. Finally, our study reveals indirect atmospheric processes triggered by LULCC. Over the Western Sahel, models reveal that a significant decrease in solar reflection tend to cool down the surface and thus counteract the atmospheric feedback. Conversely, over the Guinea zone, models reveal that the indirect atmospheric processes and turbulent heat fluxes dominate the climatic responses over the direct effects of LULCC

Undescended Testis Revealing Triorchidism in a Child: A Case Report

Polyorchidism is a rare genitourinary congenital malformation, which diagnosis is generally fortuitous in children. We report the case of a 7-year-old boy admitted to the pediatric surgery service of Donka University Hospital in Conakry for an empty left scrotum. Initially, the diagnosis of left cryptorchidism had prompted orchidopexy by inguinal approach, whose intraoperative exploration revealed two undescended left testicles. The first, located at the deep ring of the inguinal canal, had normal volume, while the second, located in the inguinal canal, was hypotrophic. The orchiectomy of the latter was performed, associated with a dartos-pouch orchidopexy of the testicle of normal volume. After one year of follow-up, no complications were noted

Land-surface characteristics and climate in West Africa : Models’ biases and impacts of historical anthropogenically-induced deforestation

Land Use Land-Cover Change (LULCC), such as deforestation, affects the climate system and land-atmosphere interactions. Using simulations carried out within the LUCID (Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust Impacts) project framework, we first quantify the role of historical land-cover change induced by human activities on surface climate in West Africa. Focusing on two contrasted African regions, we find that climate responses of land-use changes are small but they are still statistically significant. In Western Sahel, a statistically significant near-surface atmospheric cooling and a decrease in water recycling are simulated in summer in response to LULCC. Over the Guinean zone, models simulate a significant decrease in precipitation and water recycling in autumn in response to LULCC. This signal is comparable in magnitude with the effect induced by the increase in greenhouse gases. Simulated climate changes due to historical LULCC could however be underestimated because: (i) the prescribed LULCC can be underestimated in those regions; (ii) the climate models underestimate the coupling strength between West African surface climate and leaf area index (LAI) and (iii) the lack of interactive LAI in some models. Finally, our study reveals indirect atmospheric processes triggered by LULCC. Over the Western Sahel, models reveal that a significant decrease in solar reflection tend to cool down the surface and thus counteract the atmospheric feedback. Conversely, over the Guinea zone, models reveal that the indirect atmospheric processes and turbulent heat fluxes dominate the climatic responses over the direct effects of LULCC

Quantifying the value of viral genomics when inferring who infected whom in the 2014–16 Ebola virus outbreak in Guinea

Transmission trees can be established through detailed contact histories, statistical or phylogenetic inference, or a combination of methods. Each approach has its limitations, and the extent to which they succeed in revealing a 'true' transmission history remains unclear. In this study, we compared the transmission trees obtained through contact tracing investigations and various inference methods to identify the contribution and value of each approach. We studied eighty-six sequenced cases reported in Guinea between March and November 2015. Contact tracing investigations classified these cases into eight independent transmission chains. We inferred the transmission history from the genetic sequences of the cases (phylogenetic approach), their onset date (epidemiological approach), and a combination of both (combined approach). The inferred transmission trees were then compared to those from the contact tracing investigations. Inference methods using individual data sources (i.e. the phylogenetic analysis and the epidemiological approach) were insufficiently informative to accurately reconstruct the transmission trees and the direction of transmission. The combined approach was able to identify a reduced pool of infectors for each case and highlight likely connections among chains classified as independent by the contact tracing investigations. Overall, the transmissions identified by the contact tracing investigations agreed with the evolutionary history of the viral genomes, even though some cases appeared to be misclassified. Therefore, collecting genetic sequences during outbreak is key to supplement the information contained in contact tracing investigations. Although none of the methods we used could identify one unique infector per case, the combined approach highlighted the added value of mixing epidemiological and genetic information to reconstruct who infected whom